Sunday, March 17, 2019

Final 2019 Bracketology: Bid Thieves Everywhere

The first four out can all blame bid thieves this year.  Saint Louis, Saint Mary's, Oregon, and Murray State all unexpectedly won conference tournaments.  All four of those conferences have projected at-large bids or teams within the First Four Out.  Texas, Arizona State, Indiana, and Alabama have these teams to blame.  It is extremely close between Belmont and Texas for the final spot.  Recent history would suggest they would go with Texas, but I think the 16-16 record is going to be a little too much for the committee to overcome.  I'm timidly putting Belmont in the final spot, but prepared for the possibility of them being just like MTSU last year or Monmouth in 2016.


1 Seeds: Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2 Seeds: Michigan State, Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan
3 Seeds: Florida State, LSU, Texas Tech, Houston
4 Seeds: Virginia Tech, Auburn, Wisconsin, Kansas
5 Seeds: Iowa State, Purdue, Kansas State, Villanova
6 Seeds: Buffalo, CincinnatiWofford, Mississippi State
7 Seeds: Louisville, UCF, Marquette, Maryland
8 Seeds: Nevada, Seton Hall, Utah State, Ole Miss
9 Seeds: Baylor, Washington, Florida, Syracuse
10 Seeds: Minnesota, VCU, Iowa, Oklahoma
11 Seeds: NC State, Saint Mary's, Oregon, Clemson/TCU
12 Seeds: Ohio State/Belmont, Murray State, Liberty, New Mexico State
13 Seeds: Yale, Northeastern, Vermont, UC-Irvine
14 Seeds: Saint Louis, Old Dominion, Georgia State, Northern Kentucky
15 Seeds: Montana, Colgate, Bradley, Abilene Christian
16 Seeds: Gardner-Webb, Prairie View A&M, Iona/North Dakota State, Fairliegh Dickinson/NC Central

Last Four Byes:
VCU
Iowa
Oklahoma
NC State

Last Four In:
Clemson
TCU
Ohio State
Belmont

First Four Out:
Texas
Arizona State
Indiana
Alabama

Next Four Out:
Saint John's
Temple
Lipscomb
Furman


Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 8
Big 12: 7
SEC: 7
Big East: 3
American: 3
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2
Pac-12: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Ohio Valley: 2

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Bracketology March 13, 2019

Note: Minor conference auto-bids (witn no chance of at-large berths) will be updated Saturday.  This will be updated as games go final during Wednesday evening.

1 Seeds: Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Gonzaga
2 Seeds: Tennessee, Duke, Texas Tech, LSU
3 Seeds: Michigan State, Houston, Michigan, Florida State
4 Seeds: Purdue, Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Wisconsin
5 Seeds: Kansas, Buffalo, Auburn, Wofford
6 Seeds: Mississippi State, Cincinnati, Marquette, Iowa State
7 Seeds: Villanova, Maryland, Louisville, UCF
8 Seeds: Nevada, Texas, Baylor, Ole Miss
9 Seeds: WashingtonVCU, Utah State, Syracuse
10 Seeds: Florida, Iowa, Seton Hall, Oklahoma
11 Seeds: NC State, Minnesota, TCU, Saint Mary's
12 Seeds: Ohio State/ClemsonGeorgetown/Indiana, Murray State, Liberty
13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Yale, Hofstra, Vermont
14 Seeds: UC-Irvine, Old Dominion, Loyola-Chicago, South Dakota State
15 Seeds: Texas State,  Northern Kentucky, Montana, Colgate
16 Seeds: Radford, Sam Houston State, Iona/Prairie View A&M, Saint Francis (PA)/Norfolk State

Last Four Byes:
Oklahoma
NC State
Minnesota
TCU

Last Four In:
Ohio State
Clemson
Georgetown
Indiana

First Four Out:
Arizona State
Creighton
Temple
Belmont

Next Four Out:
Saint John's
Alabama
Furman
Lipscomb

Third Four Out:
Oregon
Arkansas
Xavier
Providence

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big Ten: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 7
Big East: 4
American: 3
Mountain West: 2
West Coast: 2

Saturday, March 2, 2019

2019 Bracketology

It's March...y'all know it's time for Bracketology.  Of course, it's worth noting that the NCAA retired the RPI over the offseason (RIP RPI) and introduced a new system called the NET, which includes computer metrics and margin of victory, capped at 10 points.  The formula isn't public, so we can only get the rankings from the NCAA itself.

Onto the projected seeds (projected auto-bids in bold):

1 Seeds: Virginia, Duke, Gonzaga, Kentucky
2 Seeds: Tennessee, North Carolina, Houston, Michigan State
3 Seeds: Texas Tech, LSU, Michigan, Purdue
4 Seeds: Kansas, Marquette, Virginia Tech, Iowa State
5 Seeds: Kansas State, Wisconsin, Buffalo, Florida State
6 Seeds: Wofford, Mississippi State, Cincinnati, Maryland
7 Seeds: Villanova, Nevada, Auburn, Louisville
8 Seeds: Baylor, Iowa, Washington, Texas
9 Seeds: Ole Miss, UCF, Florida, NC State
10 Seeds: Syracuse, VCU, Ohio State, Oklahoma
11 Seeds: Utah State, TCU, Alabama, Belmont
12 Seeds: Clemson, Saint John's/Seton Hall, Lipscomb, Minnesota/Furman
13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Yale, Hofstra, Vermont
14 Seeds: UC-Irvine, Old Dominion, Loyola-Chicago, South Dakota State
15 Seeds: Texas State,  Northern Kentucky, Montana, Colgate
16 Seeds: Radford, Sam Houston State, Iona/Prairie View A&M, Saint Francis (PA)/Norfolk State

Last Four Byes:
Utah State
TCU
Alabama
Clemson

Last Four In:
Saint John's
Seton Hall
Minnesota
Furman

First Four Out:
Arizona State
Temple
Saint Mary's
Butler

Next Four Out:
Murray State
Indiana
Creighton
Georgetown

Third Four Out:
Xavier
Liberty
South Carolina
Oregon

Sunday, March 11, 2018

Final Bracketology: Davidson Steals A Bid

1 Seeds: Virginia, VillanovaKansas, Xavier
2 Seeds: North Carolina, Duke, Purdue, Cincinnati
3 Seeds: Michigan State, KentuckyMichigan, Tennessee
4 Seeds: West Virginia, Auburn, Wichita State, Clemson
5 Seeds: Arizona, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Houston
6 Seeds: Ohio State, Seton Hall, Miami, TCU
7 Seeds: Florida, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Butler
8 Seeds: Rhode Island, Creighton, Nevada, Providence
9 Seeds: Saint Bonaventure, Missouri, Alabama, Kansas State
10 Seeds: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Texas, UCLA
11 Seeds: Louisville/Oklahoma, NC State/USC, DavidsonLoyola-Chicago
12 Seeds: San Diego StateBuffaloNew Mexico StateMurray State
13 Seeds: South Dakota State, Bucknell, MarshallCharleston
14 Seeds: UNC-GreensboroMontana, Wright State, Lipscomb
15 Seeds: PennUMBCGeorgia StateIona
16 Seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Cal State FullertonLIU-Brooklyn/Radford, NC Central/Texas Southern

Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.

Last Four Byes:
Florida State
Virginia Tech
Texas
UCLA

Last Four In:
Louisville
NC State
Oklahoma
USC

First Four Out:
Notre Dame
St. Mary's
Baylor
MTSU

Next Four Out:
Arizona State
Syracuse
Marquette
Oklahoma State

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
SEC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
American: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Pac-12: 3
Mountain West: 2

Projected At-Large Bids In Alphabetical Order

Due to TBS's decision to reveal the at-large bids in alphabetical order, rather than during the course of the brackets, I decided to post a tracker that you can reference to see if there are any surprises.  Teams in green are currently projected as in (last eight in are italicized), while our projected first eight teams out are in red.

Alabama
Arizona State
Arkansas
Auburn
Baylor
Butler
Clemson
Creighton
Duke
Florida
Florida State
Houston
Kansas State
Louisville
Marquette
Miami
Michigan State
Middle Tennessee
Missouri
Nevada
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Providence
Purdue
Rhode Island
Saint Bonaventure
Saint Mary's
Seton Hall
Syracuse
TCU
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
UCLA
USC
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Wichita State
Xavier

Final 2018 Bubble Watch: 6 Teams for 2 Spots

Math:
Locks: 38 (includes eight auto-bids)
Probably In: 4
Bubble: 6 (for two bids)
Probably Out: 4
SEC:
After beating Auburn, Alabama is assured of a berth in the 2018 field.  With Mississippi State and Georgia bowing out in the quarterfinals, the SEC's bubble drama is done.
Locks (8): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky (auto-bid), Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida, Alabama
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):

ACC:
Virginia Tech will be fine, but I can't say that about NC State following a loss to Boston College.
Locks (7): Virginia (auto-bid), North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Probably In (2): Louisville, NC State
Bubble (1): Notre Dame
Probably Out (1): Syracuse

Big 12:
Who would ever have thought that Oklahoma would be sitting right on the bubble on Selection Eve?  Unlike Alabama, the Sooners were not able to turn around a late season slide in their conference tournament.  Their rival from Stillwater also is likely out due to their RPI, even if it has been slightly de-emphasized in recent years.  On the positive side, Kansas State has done enough to be safely in the field.
Locks (5): Kansas (auto-bid), Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU, Kansas State
Probably In (1): Texas
Bubble (2): Baylor, Oklahoma
Probably Out (1): Oklahoma State

Big East:
Providence has finally gotten itself fully off the bubble by beating a top 2 seed in Xavier.  As for Marquette, I think they didn't do enough, especially as this bubble shrinks a little bit.
Locks (6): Villanova (auto-bid), Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton, Providence
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Marquette

Big Ten:
Penn State has been passed by too many teams at this point.  It turns out they needed another win in the Big Ten Tournament.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):

Pac-12:
Is there any chance the Pac-12 could be a 1-bid league if Arizona beats USC tonight?  There are enough bubble teams that I think that is doubtful, but it is not completely out of the question, which is a total embarrassment for a power conference.
Locks (1): Arizona (auto-bid)
Probably In (1): UCLA
Bubble (1): USC
Probably Out (1): Arizona State


American:
Nothing to see here.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):

Atlantic 10:
The A-10 gave us a bid thief in Davidson.  The Wildcats' resume (including the championship game) is now possibly bubble-worthy anyway (but would not have been with a loss today), but they have an auto-bid instead of some other team.
Locks (2): Rhode Island, Saint Bonaventure
Successful Bid Thief (1): Davidson
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):

Mountain West:
The Mountain West will get to send two teams to the NCAA Tournament at the expense of some bubble team.  Nevada, while not looking great down the stretch, has done enough for an at-large bid.
Locks (1): Nevada
Successful Bid Thief (1): San Diego State
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):

West Coast:
Saint Mary's is actually truly a bubble team.  There is little meat on their resume other than a January win at Gonzaga and a strong record, and the bubble has shrunk by two spots due to bid thieves and a few more due to major conference teams playing their way to at-large bids.  Nervous times for the Gaels.
Locks (1): Gonzaga (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Saint Mary's
Probably Out (0):

Others:
MTSU's at-large hopes are no longer an academic discussion.  Thanks to a stunning quarterfinal loss to Southern Miss, MTSU is in real danger of missing the NCAA Tournament.  Will their relative dominance and solid RPI be able to overcome their lack of quality wins?
Noteworthy Auto-Bids: Loyola-Chicago, Murray State, South Dakota State, Bucknell, New Mexico State, Marshall
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): MTSU
Probably Out (0):

Saturday, March 10, 2018

Bracketology March 10- Before Final Re-Evaluations

**Updated through all games completed as of Saturday, March 10, 2018 at 10:00 PM CT.  This will be updated throughout the night.**
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2 Seeds: North Carolina, Duke, Purdue, Michigan State
3 Seeds: CincinnatiTennesseeMichigan, Kentucky
4 Seeds: West Virginia, Auburn, Wichita State, Clemson
5 Seeds: Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Houston, Ohio State
6 Seeds: Arizona, Seton Hall, Miami, TCU
7 Seeds: Rhode Island, Florida, Arkansas, Butler
8 Seeds: Texas A&M, Creighton, Nevada, Providence
9 Seeds: Saint Bonaventure, Florida State, Kansas State, Missouri
10 Seeds: Alabama, Virginia Tech, Texas, Louisville
11 Seeds: Oklahoma, Saint Mary's/Baylor, NC State/UCLALoyola-Chicago
12 Seeds: San Diego StateBuffalo, New Mexico State, Murray State
13 Seeds: South Dakota State, Bucknell, Marshall, UNC-Greensboro
14 Seeds: Charleston, Montana, Georgia StateIona
15 Seeds: UMBCWright StateLipscombRadford
16 Seeds: Harvard, Stephen F. AustinLIU-Brooklyn/Texas SouthernUC-Irvine/NC Central

Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Bold Red designates an actual conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.

Last Four Byes:
Virginia Tech
Texas
Louisville
Oklahoma

Last Four In:
Saint Mary's
Baylor
NC State
UCLA

First Four Out:
USC
Arizona State
MTSU
Notre Dame

Next Four Out:
Syracuse
Davidson
Marquette
Oklahoma State

In Contention (no particular order):
Nebraska
Mississippi State
Oregon
Utah

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 2
West Coast: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Mountain West: 2