Bracketology: February 25, 2018

We do have a slight change from the Selection Committee this year, with an increased focus on road and neutral wins through a quadrant system (that essentially treats beating the 75th-ranked team on the road the same as a home win over the 30th ranked team).  That honestly seems a little extreme to me, and I hope they won't be too rigid on the borders (saying that beating #30 at home is more like beating #1 at home than #31, for example), but we will see when the bracket is revealed.  There were not really any massive red flags from the Top 16 reveal a couple weeks ago, so I do not expect it to have a massive impact, but this is an added difficulty for 2018.

We will also be having a Bubble Watch later today, but here is our first Bracketology, updated at the end of all of Sunday's tournament-relevant games.

1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, North Carolina
2 Seeds: Duke, Kansas, Purdue, Michigan State
3 Seeds: Auburn, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Wichita State
4 Seeds: Rhode Island, Clemson, Texas Tech, Ohio State
5 Seeds: Kentucky, Michigan, Seton Hall, West Virginia
6 Seeds: Gonzaga, Arizona, Butler, Houston
7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Nevada, TCU, Miami
8 Seeds: Florida State, Saint Bonaventure, Creighton, Arkansas
9 Seeds: Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arizona State
10 Seeds: Florida, Saint Mary's, Providence, Louisville
11 Seeds: NC State, Middle Tennessee, USC, Louisiana
12 Seeds: Texas/Kansas State, Virginia Tech/Baylor, Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo
13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Murray State, Vermont, South Dakota State
14 Seeds: Rider, Bucknell, UNC-Greensboro, Charleston
15 Seeds: Montana, Northern Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, Wagner
16 Seeds: Winthrop, UC-Irvine, Penn/Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Nicholls/Bethune-Cookman

Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.

Last Four Byes:
Providence
Louisville
NC State
USC

Last Four In:
Texas
Virginia Tech
Baylor
Kansas State

First Four Out:
Syracuse
Washington
Utah
UCLA

Next Four Out:
Boise State
Georgia
Mississippi State
Nebraska

In Contention:
Penn State
Western Kentucky
Davidson
Notre Dame
Oregon
Marquette

Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
Pac-12: 3
American: 3
West Coast: 2
Atlantic 10: 2