Bubble Watch

Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.


SEC:
The SEC is probably the most underrated league in the country this year.  Arkansas is an elite team that could make a big run in March (and you thought UK was the only one).  But, it could also be a league full of Bubble drama, with LSU right around the cut line as of now.  I still expect one of Florida and Alabama (or maybe even Tennessee) to rise over the next couple of weeks, leading up to Selection Sunday.  Had Vanderbilt (#44 in BPI) not collapsed in the final 5 seconds against Florida on Wednesday, they would be in fringe bubble territory as well.  Had Vanderbilt not utterly collapsed against Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi St, and Georgia Tech, they would be solidly in the field.  Look for the Commodores to be a major force next year, once they have matured a bit.
Locks (2): Kentucky, Arkansas
Probably In (1): Ole Miss
Bubble (3): Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU
Probably Out (3): Florida, Alabama, Tennessee

ACC:
There isn't really a whole lot to say about the ACC other than that Duke-UNC was one of the best basketball games I have ever seen!  NC State, Pitt, and Miami all remain firmly on the bubble with little margin for error, either way, particularly for Pitt and Miami.
Locks (5): Virginia, Duke, Louisville, UNC, Notre Dame
Probably In (0):
Bubble (3): NC State, Pittsburgh, Miami
Probably Out (0): 

Big 12:
Oklahoma St. was minutes away from becoming the fifth Big 12 lock on Wednesday night (not that you watched the game, as you were probably watching Duke-Carolina).  As it is, the Big 12 is looking good for 7 bids in this year's Tournament.  Kansas St. joins Vanderbilt and Florida as really good teams that just can't get it done for some reason.
Locks (4): Kansas, Iowa St., Oklahoma, Baylor
Probably In (3): Oklahoma St., West Virginia, Texas
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):

Big Ten:
That was a disappointing loss for Indiana and a big win for Purdue, but it doesn't really change a whole lot other than move the Boilermakers a little off the cut line.  Iowa is probably the most likely team here to miss out on March Madness.
Locks (2): Wisconsin, Maryland
Probably In (1): Indiana
Bubble (5): Iowa, Ohio St., Michigan St., Illinois, Purdue
Probably Out (0):

Pac-12:
Oregon St.'s last chance to stay in the conversation was to beat Utah at home.  When that didn't happen, they are done.  Of the bubble teams, UCLA is probably in the best shape right now, with all three being true bubble teams.
Locks (2): Arizona, Utah
Probably In (0):
Bubble (3): Stanford, UCLA, Oregon
Probably Out (1): California

Big East:
After the big win over Cincinnati, I am ready to lock in Xavier, allowing the Big East to join the ACC with 5 bonafide locks.  St. John's is right on the bubble, and Seton Hall has a lot of work to do to get there.
Locks (5): Villanova, Butler, Georgetown, Providence, Xavier
Probably In (0): 
Bubble (2): St. John's, Seton Hall
Probably Out (0):

American:
I had SMU as a lock last year, but they didn't make the Tournament.  Have I been too cautious about locking them up this year?  Maybe, but after a big win over Temple, this team will make it this year.  Don't collapse again, SMU!  Meanwhile, UConn is done for an at-large after a loss to Memphis.  I considered adding Memphis to the page, but their numbers just don't quite warrant it yet.  Cincinnati will be kept at Probably In for now, but another disappointing loss could change that, as they are much closer to a Bubble team than to a Lock.
Locks (1): SMU
Probably In (1): Cincinnati
Bubble (2): Temple, Tulsa
Probably Out (0):

Missouri Valley:
Do I really need to say anything?
Locks (2): Northern Iowa, Wichita St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):

Mountain West:
The Mountain West is down, but its RPI numbers are not terrible.  SDSU is fine, CSU just needs to avoid bad losses, Boise is closing in on the bubble, and Wyoming needs a miracle.
Locks (1): San Diego St.
Probably In (1): Colorado St.
Bubble (1): Boise St.
Probably Out (1): Wyoming

Atlantic-10:
Rhode Island's big win over UMass moves it even closer to the Bubble, but not quite there yet (an A-10 team with a RPI in the 60s will have trouble).  Dayton is probably one win from lockdom.
Locks (1): VCU
Probably In (1): Dayton
Bubble (2): UMass, Davidson
Probably Out (2): La Salle, Rhode Island

West Coast:
BYU is the better team than St. Mary's, but they have not done a good job backing that up in conference play.  For now, both are within shouting range of the cut line, but solidly out.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (0):
Bubble (2): St. Mary's, BYU
Probably Out (0):

Other Contenders:
Wofford will have another bad loss if it does not win the SoCon, so I don't view their at-large chances as all that great, but they can remain as a Bubble team until they lose.  But, it looks like we will probably not get an at-large from outside the Big 11 conferences (unless the Ivy League somehow gets 2!!).
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Wofford
Probably Out (3): Harvard, Iona, Yale

Totals:
Locks: 26
Probably In: 8
Bubble: 24 (for 13 at-large spots)
Probably Out: 10 (2 would get auto-bids as of today)