Bracketology

Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order.  Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.

1 Seeds: Indiana (Midwest), Duke (East), Gonzaga (West), Miami (South)
2 Seeds: Michigan St., Kansas, Michigan, Louisville
3 Seeds: Florida, Georgetown, New Mexico, Wisconsin
4 Seeds: Syracuse, Arizona, Ohio St., Marquette
5 Seeds: Kansas St., Colorado St., Oklahoma St., Notre Dame
6 Seeds: Butler, St. Louis, UNLV, Minnesota
7 Seeds: Memphis, Illinois, Pittsburgh, NC State
8 Seeds: Wichita St., San Diego St., Oregon, Missouri
9 Seeds: North Carolina, Oklahoma, VCU, Colorado
10 Seeds: Saint Mary's, Cincinnati, UCLA., Iowa St.
11 Seeds: Middle Tennessee, Belmont, La Salle, Creighton
12 Seeds: Kentucky, Temple, Virginia / Ole Miss, California / Tennessee
13 Seeds: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Bucknell, South Dakota St.
14 Seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Davidson, Montana, Long Beach St.
15 Seeds: Valparaiso, Harvard, Niagara, Norfolk St.
16 Seeds: Stony Brook, Robert Morris, Southern / Mercer, Northeastern / Charleston Southern

Last Four Byes:
La Salle
Creighton
Kentucky
Temple

Last Four In:
Virginia
California

Ole Miss

Tennessee

First Four Out:
Baylor
Villanova
St. John's
Boise St.

Next Four Out:
Indiana St.
Alabama
Maryland
Arizona St.

Third Four Out:
Southern Miss
Air Force
BYU

Arkansas

BIDS BY CONFERENCE:

Big East: 7

Big Ten: 7

ACC: 5

Big 12: 5

Atlantic 10: 5

Pac-12: 5
SEC: 5

MWC: 4

WCC: 2

MVC: 2

Bracketology

Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order.  Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.

1 Seeds: Indiana (Midwest), Duke (East), Gonzaga (West), Michigan (South)
2 Seeds: Miami, Michigan St., Kansas, Louisville
3 Seeds: Florida, Georgetown, New Mexico, Arizona
4 Seeds: Wisconsin, Syracuse, Ohio St., Marquette
5 Seeds: Kansas St., Colorado St., Oklahoma St., Notre Dame
6 Seeds: Memphis, Butler, St. Louis, UNLV
7 Seeds: Illinois, Wichita St., Pittsburgh, Minnesota
8 Seeds: NC State, Oklahoma, San Diego St., Oregon
9 Seeds: Missouri, North Carolina, VCU, Colorado
10 Seeds: Saint Mary's, Cincinnati, UCLA., Iowa St.
11 Seeds: Middle Tennessee, Belmont, La Salle, Creighton
12 Seeds: Temple, Kentucky, Virginia / Ole Miss, California / Villanova
13 Seeds: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Bucknell, South Dakota St.
14 Seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Davidson, Montana, Long Beach St.
15 Seeds: Valparaiso, Harvard, Niagara, Norfolk St.
16 Seeds: Stony Brook, Robert Morris, Southern / Mercer, Northeastern / Charleston Southern

Last Four Byes:
La Salle
Creighton
Temple
Kentucky

Last Four In:
Virginia
California

Ole Miss

Villanova

First Four Out:
Baylor
Indiana St.
St. John's
Boise St.

Next Four Out:
Maryland
Arizona St.
Arkansas
Southern Miss

Third Four Out:
Alabama
Air Force
BYU

Tennessee

BIDS BY CONFERENCE:

Big East: 8

Big Ten: 7

ACC: 5

Big 12: 5

Atlantic 10: 5

Pac-12: 5

MWC: 4

SEC: 4

WCC: 2

MVC: 2

What Will it Take to Make the NCAA Tournament?

Here, I will look at what it will take to make the tournament for the teams with designation (on Bubble Watch) of  "On the Bubble".

Currently:
Locks: 30 Teams
Probably In: 13 Teams
On the Bubble: 15 Teams
Probably Out: 10 Teams

Other Conference Champions: 17-19 (Some on Bubble)

That means that there are about 6 at large spots for the 15 teams that are "On the Bubble".  Currently, we have 8 of them getting in, as Belmont and Louisiana Tech are both leading their respective conferences.  Belmont is high enough that it would get an at-large in my current Bracketology.

VIRGINIA: Beating Duke would (virtually) seal it, but Virginia would be fine if it beats Virginia Tech, Florida St., and Maryland while losing to Duke.

MARYLAND: Maryland is a victim of its non-conference SOS.  Now, it must beat Georgia Tech and Wake Forest.  From there, it needs two of the following three: a win vs. UNC, a win @ Virginia, and a quality win in the ACC Tournament.

VILLANOVA: Villanova should be in as long as it can avoid a bad loss (to Seton Hall or in the Big East Tournament).  However, a win @ Pitt or vs. Georgetown would be very nice.

ST. JOHN'S: St. John's has done just enough to stick around.  First of all, it cannot lose @ Providence.  Then, they would be wise to beat Notre Dame and Marquette, both at home.

BAYLOR: This falling-apart Baylor team needs to win @ West Virginia and @ Texas.  From there, it needs one more, whether it be Kansas St., Kansas, or in the Big 12 Tournament.

CALIFORNIA: Cal just really needs to avoid any bad losses, as teams like Utah can be RPI landmines.  A win over Colorado would not hurt, either.

ARIZONA ST.: Things are beginning to look bleak for Arizona St.  The one thing that it cannot afford is a loss @ USC.  Short of a win @ Arizona, the Sun Devils will likely need a deep run in the Pac-12 Tournament.

KENTUCKY: Kentucky needs to prove to the selection committee that it can still play without Nerlens Noel.  A win against Florida is not necessary, but Kentucky would be wise to not lose (especially by a lot) @ Arkansas or @ Georgia.

OLE MISS: Ole Miss has a weak remaining schedule.  It needs to go at least 3-1 to feel relatively safe.  If  Ole Miss goes 2-2, it will need to do some damage in the SEC Tournament.

ALABAMA: The Crimson Tide absolutely need to beat fellow bubble team, Ole Miss, on the road.  A win @ Florida would be nice.  Otherwise, this team needs to make the SEC final to have a legitimate chance on Selection Sunday.

BOISE ST.: Boise lacks a lot of impressive wins, but has a chance to change that with games vs. Colorado St, @ UNLV, and vs. San Diego St. remaining (in addition to vs. Nevada).  Boise needs 3, maybe 4, more wins ( including the MWC Tournament).

TEMPLE: As long as Temple does not lose to Detroit, to Rhode Island, or @ Fordham and does not get embarrassed by VCU, it has nothing to worry about.

BELMONT: I think that Belmont may be able to maker it with one more loss (including the OVC Tournament), but not with two more.

INDIANA ST.: If Indiana St. does not lose to Drake or Evansville, it will be right on the Bubble cut-line entering the MVC Tournament.

LOUISIANA TECH: Louisiana Tech may have an at-large chance with one more loss to a team in the top-half of the WAC.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

Unlike ESPN, I will not provide a detailed analysis of my rationale for placing teams in any given spot aside from a brief conference description.  I prefer to save that analysis for "What Will it Take".

UPDATE (2:11 AM 2/14): Creighton is "Probably In", not a "Lock".

Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.

ACC
Florida St. is now officially done after a loss to lowly Virginia Tech.

Locks: Miami, Duke, NC State
Probably In: UNC
On the Bubble: Virginia, Maryland
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 5

Big East
At this point, the real question facing the Big East is whether or not it can get an eighth (or even ninth) team into the tournament.  Cincinnati also would be wise to get another quality win.  There is also no longer any reason to keep Pittsburgh off the "Lock" line.

Locks: Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
Probably In: Cincinnati
On the Bubble: Villanova, St. John's
Probably Out: Providence
Over / Under: 8

Big Ten
Iowa is barely hanging on to its spot in the Bubble Watch after a loss at Nebraska.

Locks: Indiana, Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Minnesota
Probably In: Illinois
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Iowa
Over / Under: 7

Big 12
Iowa St.'s rout of Texas Tech moves them to "Probably In", while Oklahoma's impressive win at Baylor makes them a "Lock"

Locks: Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Oklahoma
Probably In: Iowa St.
On the Bubble: Baylor
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5

Pac-12
I considered kicking Stanford off, but I left them on; with that said, they absolutely need to beat Colorado next week to have a chance.  Oregon still needs a little more to lock it up.

Locks: Arizona
Probably In: Colorado, Oregon, UCLA
On the Bubble: California, Arizona St.
Probably Out: Stanford
Over / Under: 5

SEC
I should add Tennessee to the "Probably Out" category.  It will take a lot for Tennessee to go to the Tournament, but it is possible.

Locks: Florida
Probably In: Missouri
On the Bubble: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama
Probably Out: Arkansas, Tennessee
Over / Under: 3.5

Mountain West
San Diego St. avoided its last potential chance for a bad loss before the MWC Tournament.  At this point, I feel comfortable moving them to a "Lock".

Locks: New Mexico, Colorado St., UNLV, San Diego St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Boise St.
Probably Out: Air Force
Over / Under: 4.5

Atlantic Ten
After a blowout loss at home to Temple, Charlotte is done.  La Salle is also elevated to "Probably In", but a loss to Duquenese would send it right back.

Locks: Butler, St. Louis
Probably In: VCU, La Salle
On the Bubble: Temple
Probably Out: Massachusetts
Over / Under: 4.5

Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
The AP Poll can subconsciously affect voters, so I have bumped Louisiana Tech up to "On the Bubble" after its first ranking since the 1980's.

Locks: Gonzaga, Wichita St., Memphis
Likely In: Middle Tennessee St., St. Mary's, Creighton
On the Bubble: Belmont, Indiana St., Louisiana Tech
Likely Out: Akron, BYU, Bucknell

Bracketology

Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order.  Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.

1 Seeds: Indiana (Midwest), Duke (East), Gonzaga (West), Michigan (South)
2 Seeds: Miami, Michigan St., Kansas, Louisville
3 Seeds: Florida, Georgetown, New Mexico, Arizona
4 Seeds: Syracuse, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Kansas St.
5 Seeds: Colorado St., Oklahoma St., Marquette, Notre Dame
6 Seeds: Memphis, Butler, St. Louis, UNLV
7 Seeds: Illinois, Wichita St., Pittsburgh, Minnesota
8 Seeds: NC State, Oklahoma, San Diego St., Oregon
9 Seeds: Missouri, North Carolina, VCU, Colorado
10 Seeds: Saint Mary's, Cincinnati, UCLA., Iowa St.
11 Seeds: Middle Tennessee, Belmont, La Salle, Creighton
12 Seeds: Temple, Kentucky, Virginia / Ole Miss, California / Villanova
13 Seeds: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Bucknell, South Dakota St.
14 Seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Davidson, Montana, Long Beach St.
15 Seeds: Valparaiso, Harvard, Niagara, Norfolk St.
16 Seeds: Stony Brook, Robert Morris, Southern / Mercer, Northeastern / Charleston Southern

Last Four Byes:
La Salle
Creighton
Temple
Kentucky

Last Four In:
Virginia
California

Villanova

Ole Miss

First Four Out:
Baylor
Indiana St.
St. John's
Boise St.

Next Four Out:
Maryland
Arizona St.
Arkansas
Alabama

Third Four Out:
Air Force
Providence
BYU

Tennessee

BIDS BY CONFERENCE:

Big East: 8

Big Ten: 7

ACC: 5

Big 12: 5

Atlantic 10: 5

Pac-12: 5

MWC: 4

SEC: 4

WCC: 2

MVC: 2