1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2 Seeds: North Carolina, Duke, Purdue, Cincinnati
3 Seeds: Michigan State, Kentucky, Michigan, Tennessee
4 Seeds: West Virginia, Auburn, Wichita State, Clemson
5 Seeds: Arizona, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Houston
6 Seeds: Ohio State, Seton Hall, Miami, TCU
7 Seeds: Florida, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Butler
8 Seeds: Rhode Island, Creighton, Nevada, Providence
9 Seeds: Saint Bonaventure, Missouri, Alabama, Kansas State
10 Seeds: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Texas, UCLA
11 Seeds: Louisville/Oklahoma, NC State/USC, Davidson, Loyola-Chicago
12 Seeds: San Diego State, Buffalo, New Mexico State, Murray State
13 Seeds: South Dakota State, Bucknell, Marshall, Charleston
14 Seeds: UNC-Greensboro, Montana, Wright State, Lipscomb
15 Seeds: Penn, UMBC, Georgia State, Iona
16 Seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Cal State Fullerton, LIU-Brooklyn/Radford, NC Central/Texas Southern
Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.
Last Four Byes:
Florida State
Virginia Tech
Texas
UCLA
Last Four In:
Louisville
NC State
Oklahoma
USC
First Four Out:
Notre Dame
St. Mary's
Baylor
MTSU
Next Four Out:
Arizona State
Syracuse
Marquette
Oklahoma State
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
SEC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
American: 3
Atlantic 10: 3
Pac-12: 3
Mountain West: 2
Sunday, March 11, 2018
Projected At-Large Bids In Alphabetical Order
Due to TBS's decision to reveal the at-large bids in alphabetical order, rather than during the course of the brackets, I decided to post a tracker that you can reference to see if there are any surprises. Teams in green are currently projected as in (last eight in are italicized), while our projected first eight teams out are in red.
Alabama
Arizona State
Arkansas
Auburn
Baylor
Butler
Clemson
Creighton
Duke
Florida
Florida State
Houston
Kansas State
Louisville
Marquette
Miami
Michigan State
Middle Tennessee
Missouri
Nevada
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Providence
Purdue
Rhode Island
Saint Bonaventure
Saint Mary's
Seton Hall
Syracuse
TCU
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
UCLA
USC
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Wichita State
Xavier
Alabama
Arizona State
Arkansas
Auburn
Baylor
Butler
Clemson
Creighton
Duke
Florida
Florida State
Houston
Kansas State
Louisville
Marquette
Miami
Michigan State
Middle Tennessee
Missouri
Nevada
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Providence
Purdue
Rhode Island
Saint Bonaventure
Saint Mary's
Seton Hall
Syracuse
TCU
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
UCLA
USC
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Wichita State
Xavier
Final 2018 Bubble Watch: 6 Teams for 2 Spots
Math:
Locks: 38 (includes eight auto-bids)
Probably In: 4
Bubble: 6 (for two bids)
Probably Out: 4
SEC:
After beating Auburn, Alabama is assured of a berth in the 2018 field. With Mississippi State and Georgia bowing out in the quarterfinals, the SEC's bubble drama is done.
Locks (8): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky (auto-bid), Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida, Alabama
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
ACC:
Virginia Tech will be fine, but I can't say that about NC State following a loss to Boston College.
Locks (7): Virginia (auto-bid), North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Probably In (2): Louisville, NC State
Bubble (1): Notre Dame
Probably Out (1): Syracuse
Big 12:
Who would ever have thought that Oklahoma would be sitting right on the bubble on Selection Eve? Unlike Alabama, the Sooners were not able to turn around a late season slide in their conference tournament. Their rival from Stillwater also is likely out due to their RPI, even if it has been slightly de-emphasized in recent years. On the positive side, Kansas State has done enough to be safely in the field.
Locks (5): Kansas (auto-bid), Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU, Kansas State
Probably In (1): Texas
Bubble (2): Baylor, Oklahoma
Probably Out (1): Oklahoma State
Big East:
Providence has finally gotten itself fully off the bubble by beating a top 2 seed in Xavier. As for Marquette, I think they didn't do enough, especially as this bubble shrinks a little bit.
Locks (6): Villanova (auto-bid), Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton, Providence
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Marquette
Big Ten:
Penn State has been passed by too many teams at this point. It turns out they needed another win in the Big Ten Tournament.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Pac-12:
Is there any chance the Pac-12 could be a 1-bid league if Arizona beats USC tonight? There are enough bubble teams that I think that is doubtful, but it is not completely out of the question, which is a total embarrassment for a power conference.
Locks (1): Arizona (auto-bid)
Probably In (1): UCLA
Bubble (1): USC
Probably Out (1): Arizona State
American:
Nothing to see here.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Atlantic 10:
The A-10 gave us a bid thief in Davidson. The Wildcats' resume (including the championship game) is now possibly bubble-worthy anyway (but would not have been with a loss today), but they have an auto-bid instead of some other team.
Locks (2): Rhode Island, Saint Bonaventure
Successful Bid Thief (1): Davidson
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will get to send two teams to the NCAA Tournament at the expense of some bubble team. Nevada, while not looking great down the stretch, has done enough for an at-large bid.
Locks (1): Nevada
Successful Bid Thief (1): San Diego State
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
West Coast:
Saint Mary's is actually truly a bubble team. There is little meat on their resume other than a January win at Gonzaga and a strong record, and the bubble has shrunk by two spots due to bid thieves and a few more due to major conference teams playing their way to at-large bids. Nervous times for the Gaels.
Locks (1): Gonzaga (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Saint Mary's
Probably Out (0):
Others:
MTSU's at-large hopes are no longer an academic discussion. Thanks to a stunning quarterfinal loss to Southern Miss, MTSU is in real danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. Will their relative dominance and solid RPI be able to overcome their lack of quality wins?
Noteworthy Auto-Bids: Loyola-Chicago, Murray State, South Dakota State, Bucknell, New Mexico State, Marshall
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): MTSU
Locks: 38 (includes eight auto-bids)
Probably In: 4
Bubble: 6 (for two bids)
Probably Out: 4
SEC:
After beating Auburn, Alabama is assured of a berth in the 2018 field. With Mississippi State and Georgia bowing out in the quarterfinals, the SEC's bubble drama is done.
Locks (8): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky (auto-bid), Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida, Alabama
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
ACC:
Virginia Tech will be fine, but I can't say that about NC State following a loss to Boston College.
Locks (7): Virginia (auto-bid), North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Probably In (2): Louisville, NC State
Bubble (1): Notre Dame
Probably Out (1): Syracuse
Big 12:
Who would ever have thought that Oklahoma would be sitting right on the bubble on Selection Eve? Unlike Alabama, the Sooners were not able to turn around a late season slide in their conference tournament. Their rival from Stillwater also is likely out due to their RPI, even if it has been slightly de-emphasized in recent years. On the positive side, Kansas State has done enough to be safely in the field.
Locks (5): Kansas (auto-bid), Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU, Kansas State
Probably In (1): Texas
Bubble (2): Baylor, Oklahoma
Probably Out (1): Oklahoma State
Big East:
Providence has finally gotten itself fully off the bubble by beating a top 2 seed in Xavier. As for Marquette, I think they didn't do enough, especially as this bubble shrinks a little bit.
Locks (6): Villanova (auto-bid), Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton, Providence
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Marquette
Big Ten:
Penn State has been passed by too many teams at this point. It turns out they needed another win in the Big Ten Tournament.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Pac-12:
Is there any chance the Pac-12 could be a 1-bid league if Arizona beats USC tonight? There are enough bubble teams that I think that is doubtful, but it is not completely out of the question, which is a total embarrassment for a power conference.
Locks (1): Arizona (auto-bid)
Probably In (1): UCLA
Bubble (1): USC
Probably Out (1): Arizona State
American:
Nothing to see here.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Atlantic 10:
The A-10 gave us a bid thief in Davidson. The Wildcats' resume (including the championship game) is now possibly bubble-worthy anyway (but would not have been with a loss today), but they have an auto-bid instead of some other team.
Locks (2): Rhode Island, Saint Bonaventure
Successful Bid Thief (1): Davidson
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will get to send two teams to the NCAA Tournament at the expense of some bubble team. Nevada, while not looking great down the stretch, has done enough for an at-large bid.
Locks (1): Nevada
Successful Bid Thief (1): San Diego State
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
West Coast:
Saint Mary's is actually truly a bubble team. There is little meat on their resume other than a January win at Gonzaga and a strong record, and the bubble has shrunk by two spots due to bid thieves and a few more due to major conference teams playing their way to at-large bids. Nervous times for the Gaels.
Locks (1): Gonzaga (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Saint Mary's
Probably Out (0):
Others:
MTSU's at-large hopes are no longer an academic discussion. Thanks to a stunning quarterfinal loss to Southern Miss, MTSU is in real danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. Will their relative dominance and solid RPI be able to overcome their lack of quality wins?
Noteworthy Auto-Bids: Loyola-Chicago, Murray State, South Dakota State, Bucknell, New Mexico State, Marshall
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): MTSU
Probably Out (0):
Saturday, March 10, 2018
Bracketology March 10- Before Final Re-Evaluations
**Updated through all games completed as of Saturday, March 10, 2018 at 10:00 PM CT. This will be updated throughout the night.**
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2 Seeds: North Carolina, Duke, Purdue, Michigan State
3 Seeds: Cincinnati, Tennessee, Michigan, Kentucky
4 Seeds: West Virginia, Auburn, Wichita State, Clemson
5 Seeds: Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Houston, Ohio State
6 Seeds: Arizona, Seton Hall, Miami, TCU
7 Seeds: Rhode Island, Florida, Arkansas, Butler
8 Seeds: Texas A&M, Creighton, Nevada, Providence
9 Seeds: Saint Bonaventure, Florida State, Kansas State, Missouri
10 Seeds: Alabama, Virginia Tech, Texas, Louisville
11 Seeds: Oklahoma, Saint Mary's/Baylor, NC State/UCLA, Loyola-Chicago
12 Seeds: San Diego State, Buffalo, New Mexico State, Murray State
13 Seeds: South Dakota State, Bucknell, Marshall, UNC-Greensboro
14 Seeds: Charleston, Montana, Georgia State, Iona
15 Seeds: UMBC, Wright State, Lipscomb, Radford
16 Seeds: Harvard, Stephen F. Austin, LIU-Brooklyn/Texas Southern, UC-Irvine/NC Central
Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Bold Red designates an actual conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.
Last Four Byes:
Virginia Tech
Texas
Louisville
Oklahoma
Last Four In:
Saint Mary's
Baylor
NC State
UCLA
First Four Out:
USC
Arizona State
MTSU
Notre Dame
Next Four Out:
Syracuse
Davidson
Marquette
Oklahoma State
In Contention (no particular order):
Nebraska
Mississippi State
Oregon
Utah
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 2
West Coast: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Mountain West: 2
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
2 Seeds: North Carolina, Duke, Purdue, Michigan State
3 Seeds: Cincinnati, Tennessee, Michigan, Kentucky
4 Seeds: West Virginia, Auburn, Wichita State, Clemson
5 Seeds: Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Houston, Ohio State
6 Seeds: Arizona, Seton Hall, Miami, TCU
7 Seeds: Rhode Island, Florida, Arkansas, Butler
8 Seeds: Texas A&M, Creighton, Nevada, Providence
9 Seeds: Saint Bonaventure, Florida State, Kansas State, Missouri
10 Seeds: Alabama, Virginia Tech, Texas, Louisville
11 Seeds: Oklahoma, Saint Mary's/Baylor, NC State/UCLA, Loyola-Chicago
12 Seeds: San Diego State, Buffalo, New Mexico State, Murray State
13 Seeds: South Dakota State, Bucknell, Marshall, UNC-Greensboro
14 Seeds: Charleston, Montana, Georgia State, Iona
15 Seeds: UMBC, Wright State, Lipscomb, Radford
16 Seeds: Harvard, Stephen F. Austin, LIU-Brooklyn/Texas Southern, UC-Irvine/NC Central
Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Bold Red designates an actual conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.
Last Four Byes:
Virginia Tech
Texas
Louisville
Oklahoma
Last Four In:
Saint Mary's
Baylor
NC State
UCLA
First Four Out:
USC
Arizona State
MTSU
Notre Dame
Next Four Out:
Syracuse
Davidson
Marquette
Oklahoma State
In Contention (no particular order):
Nebraska
Mississippi State
Oregon
Utah
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 2
West Coast: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Mountain West: 2
Bubble Watch: Alabama and Providence are Safe; Oklahoma On the Bubble
Wow, this bubble is shrinking. Nevada lost. MTSU lost. We still have the potential for surprise champions in the AAC or Atlantic 10 to take somebody's bid. Additionally, we may have some adjustments after re-evaluating resumes tonight.
Math:
Locks: 38 (includes nine auto-bids)
Probably In: 3
Bubble: 8 (for four bids)
Probably Out: 8 (includes two auto-bids)
SEC:
After beating Auburn, Alabama is assured of a berth in the 2018 field. With Mississippi State and Georgia bowing out in the quarterfinals, the SEC's bubble drama is done.
Locks (8): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida, Alabama
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
ACC:
Virginia Tech will be fine, but I can't say that about NC State following a loss to Boston College.
Locks (7): Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Probably In (1): Louisville
Bubble (2): NC State, Notre Dame
Probably Out (1): Syracuse
Big 12:
Who would ever have thought that Oklahoma would be sitting right on the bubble on Selection Eve? Unlike Alabama, the Sooners were not able to turn around a late season slide in their conference tournament. Their rival from Stillwater also is likely out due to their RPI, even if it has been slightly de-emphasized in recent years. On the positive side, Kansas State has done enough to be safely in the field.
Locks (5): Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU, Kansas State
Probably In (1): Texas
Bubble (2): Baylor, Oklahoma
Probably Out (1): Oklahoma State
Big East:
Providence has finally gotten itself fully off the bubble by beating a top 2 seed in Xavier. As for Marquette, I think they didn't do enough, especially as this bubble shrinks a little bit.
Locks (6): Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton, Providence
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Marquette
Big Ten:
Penn State has been passed by too many teams at this point. It turns out they needed another win in the Big Ten Tournament.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Penn State, Nebraska
Pac-12:
Is there any chance the Pac-12 could be a 1-bid league if Arizona beats USC tonight? There are enough bubble teams that I think that is doubtful, but it is not completely out of the question, which is a total embarrassment for a power conference.
Locks (1): Arizona
Probably In (0):
Bubble (3): UCLA, USC, Arizona State
Probably Out (0):
American:
Nothing to see here unless we have some bid thievery.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (1): Memphis
Atlantic 10:
I can't see Davidson getting an at-large, due to the strengthening bubble, but they are just two wins away from securing their own bid. Also, we are going to lock up Saint Bonaventure now that they have avoided the bad losses.
Locks (2): Rhode Island, Saint Bonaventure
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Davidson
Alive Bid Thieves (1): Saint Joseph's
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will get to send two teams to the NCAA Tournament at the expense of some bubble team. Nevada, while not looking great down the stretch, has done enough for an at-large bid.
Locks (1): Nevada
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (2): New Mexico, San Diego State (one guaranteed to steal a bid)
West Coast:
Saint Mary's is not nearly as close as a lock as I thought after their quarterfinal win. Too many bubble teams have won games, and the bubble has kept shrinking. I am not yet demoting them to the Bubble, but I may after re-evaluating resumes tonight.
Locks (1): Gonzaga (auto-bid)
Probably In (1): Saint Mary's
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Others:
MTSU's at-large hopes are no longer an academic discussion. Thanks to a stunning quarterfinal loss to Southern Miss, MTSU is in real danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. Will their relative dominance and solid RPI be able to overcome their lack of quality wins?
Noteworthy Auto-Bids: Loyola-Chicago, Murray State, South Dakota State, Bucknell
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): MTSU
Math:
Locks: 38 (includes nine auto-bids)
Probably In: 3
Bubble: 8 (for four bids)
Probably Out: 8 (includes two auto-bids)
SEC:
After beating Auburn, Alabama is assured of a berth in the 2018 field. With Mississippi State and Georgia bowing out in the quarterfinals, the SEC's bubble drama is done.
Locks (8): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida, Alabama
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
ACC:
Virginia Tech will be fine, but I can't say that about NC State following a loss to Boston College.
Locks (7): Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Probably In (1): Louisville
Bubble (2): NC State, Notre Dame
Probably Out (1): Syracuse
Big 12:
Who would ever have thought that Oklahoma would be sitting right on the bubble on Selection Eve? Unlike Alabama, the Sooners were not able to turn around a late season slide in their conference tournament. Their rival from Stillwater also is likely out due to their RPI, even if it has been slightly de-emphasized in recent years. On the positive side, Kansas State has done enough to be safely in the field.
Locks (5): Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU, Kansas State
Probably In (1): Texas
Bubble (2): Baylor, Oklahoma
Probably Out (1): Oklahoma State
Big East:
Providence has finally gotten itself fully off the bubble by beating a top 2 seed in Xavier. As for Marquette, I think they didn't do enough, especially as this bubble shrinks a little bit.
Locks (6): Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton, Providence
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Marquette
Big Ten:
Penn State has been passed by too many teams at this point. It turns out they needed another win in the Big Ten Tournament.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Penn State, Nebraska
Pac-12:
Is there any chance the Pac-12 could be a 1-bid league if Arizona beats USC tonight? There are enough bubble teams that I think that is doubtful, but it is not completely out of the question, which is a total embarrassment for a power conference.
Locks (1): Arizona
Probably In (0):
Bubble (3): UCLA, USC, Arizona State
Probably Out (0):
American:
Nothing to see here unless we have some bid thievery.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (1): Memphis
Atlantic 10:
I can't see Davidson getting an at-large, due to the strengthening bubble, but they are just two wins away from securing their own bid. Also, we are going to lock up Saint Bonaventure now that they have avoided the bad losses.
Locks (2): Rhode Island, Saint Bonaventure
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Davidson
Alive Bid Thieves (1): Saint Joseph's
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will get to send two teams to the NCAA Tournament at the expense of some bubble team. Nevada, while not looking great down the stretch, has done enough for an at-large bid.
Locks (1): Nevada
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (2): New Mexico, San Diego State (one guaranteed to steal a bid)
West Coast:
Saint Mary's is not nearly as close as a lock as I thought after their quarterfinal win. Too many bubble teams have won games, and the bubble has kept shrinking. I am not yet demoting them to the Bubble, but I may after re-evaluating resumes tonight.
Locks (1): Gonzaga (auto-bid)
Probably In (1): Saint Mary's
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Others:
MTSU's at-large hopes are no longer an academic discussion. Thanks to a stunning quarterfinal loss to Southern Miss, MTSU is in real danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. Will their relative dominance and solid RPI be able to overcome their lack of quality wins?
Noteworthy Auto-Bids: Loyola-Chicago, Murray State, South Dakota State, Bucknell
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): MTSU
Probably Out (2): Louisiana, New Mexico State
Friday, March 9, 2018
Bracketology- March 9: What Happens to MTSU?
**Updated through all games completed as of Friday, March 9, 2018 at 11:00 PM CT. This will be updated throughout the night.**
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, North Carolina
2 Seeds: Kansas, Duke, Purdue, Michigan State
3 Seeds: Cincinnati, Tennessee, Michigan, Wichita State
4 Seeds: West Virginia, Auburn, Kentucky, Clemson
5 Seeds: Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Arizona
6 Seeds: Seton Hall, Miami, Houston, TCU
7 Seeds: Rhode Island, Saint Bonaventure, Florida, Arkansas
8 Seeds: Butler, Texas A&M, Creighton, Nevada
9 Seeds: Florida State, Providence, Kansas State, Missouri
10 Seeds: Alabama, Virginia Tech, Texas, Louisville
11 Seeds: Oklahoma, Saint Mary's/Baylor, NC State/UCLA, Louisiana
12 Seeds: Loyola-Chicago, Western Kentucky, San Diego State, Buffalo
13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Murray State, Vermont, South Dakota State
14 Seeds: Bucknell, UNC-Greensboro, Charleston, Montana
15 Seeds: Iona, Wright State, Lipscomb, Radford
16 Seeds: UC-Irvine, Harvard, LIU-Brooklyn/Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Nicholls/Hampton
Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Bold Red designates an actual conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.
Last Four Byes:
Virginia Tech
Texas
Louisville
Oklahoma
Last Four In:
Saint Mary's
Baylor
NC State
UCLA
First Four Out:
USC
Arizona State
MTSU
Notre Dame
Next Four Out:
Syracuse
Marquette
Oklahoma State
Penn State
In Contention (no particular order):
Davidson
Mississippi State
Oregon
Utah
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 2
West Coast: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Mountain West: 2
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, North Carolina
2 Seeds: Kansas, Duke, Purdue, Michigan State
3 Seeds: Cincinnati, Tennessee, Michigan, Wichita State
4 Seeds: West Virginia, Auburn, Kentucky, Clemson
5 Seeds: Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Arizona
6 Seeds: Seton Hall, Miami, Houston, TCU
7 Seeds: Rhode Island, Saint Bonaventure, Florida, Arkansas
8 Seeds: Butler, Texas A&M, Creighton, Nevada
9 Seeds: Florida State, Providence, Kansas State, Missouri
10 Seeds: Alabama, Virginia Tech, Texas, Louisville
11 Seeds: Oklahoma, Saint Mary's/Baylor, NC State/UCLA, Louisiana
12 Seeds: Loyola-Chicago, Western Kentucky, San Diego State, Buffalo
13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Murray State, Vermont, South Dakota State
14 Seeds: Bucknell, UNC-Greensboro, Charleston, Montana
15 Seeds: Iona, Wright State, Lipscomb, Radford
16 Seeds: UC-Irvine, Harvard, LIU-Brooklyn/Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Nicholls/Hampton
Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Bold Red designates an actual conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.
Last Four Byes:
Virginia Tech
Texas
Louisville
Oklahoma
Last Four In:
Saint Mary's
Baylor
NC State
UCLA
First Four Out:
USC
Arizona State
MTSU
Notre Dame
Next Four Out:
Syracuse
Marquette
Oklahoma State
Penn State
In Contention (no particular order):
Davidson
Mississippi State
Oregon
Utah
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
American: 3
Pac-12: 2
West Coast: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Mountain West: 2
Sunday, March 4, 2018
Bubble Watch: Bubble Expanding
Over in our Bracketology, we currently have the majority of the 36 at-large bids being consumed by three conferences- the ACC, Big 12, and the suddenly strong SEC. That SEC was a three-bid league just two years ago (with one even falling in the First Four) and just a five-bid one last year. This year, it is looking solid for eight with an outside path to nine, or even ten. It is also worth noting that lock means lock, and we will not put teams in that status if we think that they even need one more win the rest of the way.
NOTE: I will unfortunately not be able to update until Friday due to travel plans.
Math:
Locks: 33 (includes ten auto-bids)
Probably In: 9
Bubble: 11 (for four at-large bids; MTSU projected as an auto-bid)
Probably Out: 6 (includes two auto-bids)
SEC:
Florida is a lock, and Alabama suddenly finds itself having more to worry about.
Locks (7): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Alabama
Probably Out (0):
ACC:
Lock up FSU, promote NC State and Syracuse, and demote Louisville
Locks (6): Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Florida State
Probably In (2): NC State, Virginia Tech
Bubble (2): Louisville, Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Notre Dame
Big 12:
K-State and Texas look better, while Baylor falls towards the cut line. We also add Oklahoma State to the board.
Locks (4): Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU
Probably In (3): Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas State
Bubble (1): Baylor
Probably Out (1): Oklahoma State
Big East:
Marquette's big win legitimately puts it on the bubble.
Locks (5): Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (1): Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Big Ten:
Time for Penn State to wait and see.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Penn State
Probably Out (1): Nebraska
Pac-12:
Can somebody make sense of the Pac-12? Please. Arizona State stays at "Probably In", but USC falls onto the bubble.
Locks (1): Arizona
Probably In (1): Arizona State
Bubble (4): Washington, USC, Utah, UCLA
Probably Out (0):
American:
Nothing to see here unless we have some bid thievery.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Atlantic 10:
Well, Davidson, you are back in the picture now following beating Rhode Island at home yesterday. We just wonder what could have been if you had won that 3 OT game the other night at Saint Bonaventure. As for Rhode Island, once you are a lock, you stay a lock, and we do not feel that this will be a problem right now, even if the Rams are not inspiring confidence in their team the last couple games.
Locks (1): Rhode Island
Probably In (1): Saint Bonaventure
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Davidson
Mountain West:
Nevada is now a lock, so it's pretty simple for the MWC. It will be a 1-bid league if Nevada wins the tournament, but, if someone else does, it will get 2 and steal a bid from another conference.
Locks (1): Nevada
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 1
West Coast:
Saint Mary's is very close to a lock. As long as they win the WCC or lose to Gonzaga or BYU, they will be locked up. There is still a remote chance of a bad loss.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (1): Saint Mary's
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Others:
What happened, MTSU? And WKU for that matter?
Noteworthy Auto-Bids: Loyola-Chicago
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): MTSU
NOTE: I will unfortunately not be able to update until Friday due to travel plans.
Math:
Locks: 33 (includes ten auto-bids)
Probably In: 9
Bubble: 11 (for four at-large bids; MTSU projected as an auto-bid)
Probably Out: 6 (includes two auto-bids)
SEC:
Florida is a lock, and Alabama suddenly finds itself having more to worry about.
Locks (7): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Alabama
Probably Out (0):
ACC:
Lock up FSU, promote NC State and Syracuse, and demote Louisville
Locks (6): Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Florida State
Probably In (2): NC State, Virginia Tech
Bubble (2): Louisville, Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Notre Dame
Big 12:
K-State and Texas look better, while Baylor falls towards the cut line. We also add Oklahoma State to the board.
Locks (4): Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU
Probably In (3): Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas State
Bubble (1): Baylor
Probably Out (1): Oklahoma State
Big East:
Marquette's big win legitimately puts it on the bubble.
Locks (5): Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (1): Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Big Ten:
Time for Penn State to wait and see.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Penn State
Probably Out (1): Nebraska
Pac-12:
Can somebody make sense of the Pac-12? Please. Arizona State stays at "Probably In", but USC falls onto the bubble.
Locks (1): Arizona
Probably In (1): Arizona State
Bubble (4): Washington, USC, Utah, UCLA
Probably Out (0):
American:
Nothing to see here unless we have some bid thievery.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Atlantic 10:
Well, Davidson, you are back in the picture now following beating Rhode Island at home yesterday. We just wonder what could have been if you had won that 3 OT game the other night at Saint Bonaventure. As for Rhode Island, once you are a lock, you stay a lock, and we do not feel that this will be a problem right now, even if the Rams are not inspiring confidence in their team the last couple games.
Locks (1): Rhode Island
Probably In (1): Saint Bonaventure
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Davidson
Mountain West:
Nevada is now a lock, so it's pretty simple for the MWC. It will be a 1-bid league if Nevada wins the tournament, but, if someone else does, it will get 2 and steal a bid from another conference.
Locks (1): Nevada
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 1
West Coast:
Saint Mary's is very close to a lock. As long as they win the WCC or lose to Gonzaga or BYU, they will be locked up. There is still a remote chance of a bad loss.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (1): Saint Mary's
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Others:
What happened, MTSU? And WKU for that matter?
Noteworthy Auto-Bids: Loyola-Chicago
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): MTSU
Probably Out (2): Louisiana, New Mexico State
Saturday, March 3, 2018
Bracketology: Alabama in Trouble; Oklahoma State Suddenly Alive
**Updated through all games completed as of Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 8:00 PM CT. Additionally, due to personal travel, this will be the last update until Friday.**
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Purdue
2 Seeds: Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, Michigan State
3 Seeds: Cincinnati, Tennessee, Auburn, Michigan
4 Seeds: Wichita State, Kentucky, Clemson, West Virginia
5 Seeds: Texas Tech, Ohio State, Seton Hall, Gonzaga
6 Seeds: Arizona, Miami, Houston, TCU
7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Rhode Island, Saint Bonaventure, Florida
8 Seeds: Nevada, Arkansas, Butler, Missouri
9 Seeds: Florida State, Creighton, St. Mary's, Virginia Tech
10 Seeds: Oklahoma, Providence, Arizona State, Texas
11 Seeds: Kansas State, NC State, MTSU, Alabama/Baylor
12 Seeds: Louisiana, Louisville/USC, Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo
13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Murray State, Vermont, South Dakota State
14 Seeds: Rider, Bucknell, UNC-Greensboro, Charleston
15 Seeds: Montana, Wright State, Lipscomb, Wagner
16 Seeds: Radford, UC-Irvine, Penn/Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Nicholls/Bethune-Cookman
Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Bold Red designates an actual conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.
Last Four Byes:
Arizona State
Texas
Kansas State
NC State
Last Four In:
Alabama
Louisville
Baylor
USC
First Four Out:
UCLA
Utah
Syracuse
Marquette
Next Four Out:
Penn State
Washington
Notre Dame
Oklahoma State
In Contention (no particular order):
Davidson
Boise State
Nebraska
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
Pac-12: 3
American: 3
West Coast: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Purdue
2 Seeds: Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, Michigan State
3 Seeds: Cincinnati, Tennessee, Auburn, Michigan
4 Seeds: Wichita State, Kentucky, Clemson, West Virginia
5 Seeds: Texas Tech, Ohio State, Seton Hall, Gonzaga
6 Seeds: Arizona, Miami, Houston, TCU
7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Rhode Island, Saint Bonaventure, Florida
8 Seeds: Nevada, Arkansas, Butler, Missouri
9 Seeds: Florida State, Creighton, St. Mary's, Virginia Tech
10 Seeds: Oklahoma, Providence, Arizona State, Texas
11 Seeds: Kansas State, NC State, MTSU, Alabama/Baylor
12 Seeds: Louisiana, Louisville/USC, Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo
13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Murray State, Vermont, South Dakota State
14 Seeds: Rider, Bucknell, UNC-Greensboro, Charleston
15 Seeds: Montana, Wright State, Lipscomb, Wagner
16 Seeds: Radford, UC-Irvine, Penn/Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Nicholls/Bethune-Cookman
Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Bold Red designates an actual conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.
Last Four Byes:
Arizona State
Texas
Kansas State
NC State
Last Four In:
Alabama
Louisville
Baylor
USC
First Four Out:
UCLA
Utah
Syracuse
Marquette
Next Four Out:
Penn State
Washington
Notre Dame
Oklahoma State
In Contention (no particular order):
Davidson
Boise State
Nebraska
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
Pac-12: 3
American: 3
West Coast: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Friday, March 2, 2018
Bubble Watch: Texas A&M is a Lock to Make the NCAA Tournament
**Up to date as of the end of 3/2/18**
Over in our Bracketology, we currently have the majority of the 36 at-large bids being consumed by three conferences- the ACC, Big 12, and the suddenly strong SEC. That SEC was a three-bid league just two years ago (with one even falling in the First Four) and just a five-bid one last year. This year, it is looking solid for eight with an outside path to nine, or even ten. It is also worth noting that lock means lock, and we will not put teams in that status if we think that they even need one more win the rest of the way.
Math:
Locks: 31 (includes ten auto-bids)
Probably In: 13 (includes one auto-bid)
Bubble: 7 (for three at-large bids)
Probably Out: 11 (includes three auto-bids)
SEC:
Welcome to lockdom, Texas A&M, becoming the sixth SEC team assured of a bid to the 2018 Big Dance! Florida really probably is there already, but we are being cautious. One more win and we will lock them in. Alabama isn't as close, but is on the right side of things for now. Mississippi State and Georgia need big runs in Saint Louis next week, and the other four need to win it.
Locks (6): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M
Probably In (2): Alabama, Florida
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Mississippi State, Georgia
Over/Under: 8.5
ACC:
Louisville, you were so close! That would have done it, if not for the weirdest ending I have seen since that Texas A&M Tournament comeback a few years ago. Virginia Tech and Florida State will be playing to become locks tomorrow, while NC State and Louisville have a crucial battle, where the winner will be in good shape, but the loser could be on shaky footing. All of a sudden, Notre Dame actually looks better than Syracuse, but they would both be wise to take advantage of opportunities for huge wins this week.
Locks (5): Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Probably In (3): Florida State, Louisville, Virginia Tech
Bubble (1): NC State
Probably Out (2): Notre Dame, Syracuse
Over/Under: 9
Big 12:
At least Oklahoma did not lose to Iowa State, which may have spelled disaster. We are going to have at-large teams with sub-.500 conference records this year, but would 7-11 have spelled trouble for the Sooners? I guess we will never know, but they are looking much better now, though I am holding off on pressing the 'lock' button. Bubble Watchers should be excited for that Baylor-KState battle tomorrow!
Locks (4): Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU
Probably In (2): Oklahoma, Baylor
Bubble (2): Texas, Kansas State
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 7
Big East:
Providence, avoid being upset by the Johnnies tomorrow, and I will pull the trigger. Marquette also has a good opportunity to pick up a win over a tournament team in Creighton.
Locks (5): Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Marquette
Over/Under: 6
Big Ten:
Nebraska could not get it done against Michigan. Despite the strong record, there is not a whole lot on the Cornhuskers' resume. Unfortunately, it does not look good for them. Penn State, on the other hand, is now much closer to the cut line following a thrilling victory over Ohio State (for the third time this year) in the quarterfinals at Madison Square Garden. Tomorrow, they have an opportunity to knock off Purdue and clearly bust their way into the Field of 68.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Penn State
Probably Out (1): Nebraska
Over/Under: 4.5
Pac-12:
For the most part, the Pac-12's contenders did what they needed to do on Thursday night. Arizona State will attain lock status if it can win at home against Stanford tomorrow afternoon, while USC will have a chance to move closer to a bid against fellow bubbler and cross-town rival UCLA. Washington and Utah just need to keep winning, and then we can talk, but, unfortunately, barring something unforeseen, I think it's over for Oregon.
Locks (1): Arizona
Probably In (2): Arizona State, USC
Bubble (3): Washington, Utah, UCLA
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 3.5
American:
Nothing to see here unless we have some bid thievery.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 3
Atlantic 10:
Well, Davidson, you are back in the picture now following beating Rhode Island at home today. We just wonder what could have been if you had won that 3 OT game the other night at Saint Bonaventure. As for Rhode Island, once you are a lock, you stay a lock, and we do not feel that this will be a problem right now, even if the Rams are not inspiring confidence in their team the last couple games.
Locks (1): Rhode Island
Probably In (1): Saint Bonaventure
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Davidson
Over/Under: 2
Mountain West:
Nevada is now a lock, so it's pretty simple for the MWC. It will be a 1-bid league if Nevada wins the tournament, but, if someone else does, it will get 2 and steal a bid from another conference.
Locks (1): Nevada
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 1
West Coast:
Yet another season, yet another year where Gonzaga and St. Mary's will likely represent the WCC in March Madness. Depending on brackets, a win Saturday may lift the Gaels to lock status as well.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (1): Saint Mary's
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 2
Others:
The committee has not been kind to teams outside the Power 7+3 in recent years. MTSU is the most likely to receive an at-large, as they have developed a mini-power in Murfreesboro, but they were underseeded last year (suggesting they likely would not have received an at-large had they failed to secure an auto-bid). Is there any reason to suggest that this year will be any different, other than being in the AP Top 25? The Blue Raiders would be better off just grabbing the auto-bid instead of leaving this to the committee. With that said, there resume is now impressive enough to warrant "probably in" status, even if they fail to win the C-USA Tournament.
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): MTSU
Bubble (0):
Over in our Bracketology, we currently have the majority of the 36 at-large bids being consumed by three conferences- the ACC, Big 12, and the suddenly strong SEC. That SEC was a three-bid league just two years ago (with one even falling in the First Four) and just a five-bid one last year. This year, it is looking solid for eight with an outside path to nine, or even ten. It is also worth noting that lock means lock, and we will not put teams in that status if we think that they even need one more win the rest of the way.
Math:
Locks: 31 (includes ten auto-bids)
Probably In: 13 (includes one auto-bid)
Bubble: 7 (for three at-large bids)
Probably Out: 11 (includes three auto-bids)
SEC:
Welcome to lockdom, Texas A&M, becoming the sixth SEC team assured of a bid to the 2018 Big Dance! Florida really probably is there already, but we are being cautious. One more win and we will lock them in. Alabama isn't as close, but is on the right side of things for now. Mississippi State and Georgia need big runs in Saint Louis next week, and the other four need to win it.
Locks (6): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M
Probably In (2): Alabama, Florida
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Mississippi State, Georgia
Over/Under: 8.5
ACC:
Louisville, you were so close! That would have done it, if not for the weirdest ending I have seen since that Texas A&M Tournament comeback a few years ago. Virginia Tech and Florida State will be playing to become locks tomorrow, while NC State and Louisville have a crucial battle, where the winner will be in good shape, but the loser could be on shaky footing. All of a sudden, Notre Dame actually looks better than Syracuse, but they would both be wise to take advantage of opportunities for huge wins this week.
Locks (5): Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Probably In (3): Florida State, Louisville, Virginia Tech
Bubble (1): NC State
Probably Out (2): Notre Dame, Syracuse
Over/Under: 9
Big 12:
At least Oklahoma did not lose to Iowa State, which may have spelled disaster. We are going to have at-large teams with sub-.500 conference records this year, but would 7-11 have spelled trouble for the Sooners? I guess we will never know, but they are looking much better now, though I am holding off on pressing the 'lock' button. Bubble Watchers should be excited for that Baylor-KState battle tomorrow!
Locks (4): Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU
Probably In (2): Oklahoma, Baylor
Bubble (2): Texas, Kansas State
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 7
Big East:
Providence, avoid being upset by the Johnnies tomorrow, and I will pull the trigger. Marquette also has a good opportunity to pick up a win over a tournament team in Creighton.
Locks (5): Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Marquette
Over/Under: 6
Big Ten:
Nebraska could not get it done against Michigan. Despite the strong record, there is not a whole lot on the Cornhuskers' resume. Unfortunately, it does not look good for them. Penn State, on the other hand, is now much closer to the cut line following a thrilling victory over Ohio State (for the third time this year) in the quarterfinals at Madison Square Garden. Tomorrow, they have an opportunity to knock off Purdue and clearly bust their way into the Field of 68.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Penn State
Probably Out (1): Nebraska
Over/Under: 4.5
Pac-12:
For the most part, the Pac-12's contenders did what they needed to do on Thursday night. Arizona State will attain lock status if it can win at home against Stanford tomorrow afternoon, while USC will have a chance to move closer to a bid against fellow bubbler and cross-town rival UCLA. Washington and Utah just need to keep winning, and then we can talk, but, unfortunately, barring something unforeseen, I think it's over for Oregon.
Locks (1): Arizona
Probably In (2): Arizona State, USC
Bubble (3): Washington, Utah, UCLA
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 3.5
American:
Nothing to see here unless we have some bid thievery.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 3
Atlantic 10:
Well, Davidson, you are back in the picture now following beating Rhode Island at home today. We just wonder what could have been if you had won that 3 OT game the other night at Saint Bonaventure. As for Rhode Island, once you are a lock, you stay a lock, and we do not feel that this will be a problem right now, even if the Rams are not inspiring confidence in their team the last couple games.
Locks (1): Rhode Island
Probably In (1): Saint Bonaventure
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Davidson
Over/Under: 2
Mountain West:
Nevada is now a lock, so it's pretty simple for the MWC. It will be a 1-bid league if Nevada wins the tournament, but, if someone else does, it will get 2 and steal a bid from another conference.
Locks (1): Nevada
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 1
West Coast:
Yet another season, yet another year where Gonzaga and St. Mary's will likely represent the WCC in March Madness. Depending on brackets, a win Saturday may lift the Gaels to lock status as well.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (1): Saint Mary's
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 2
Others:
The committee has not been kind to teams outside the Power 7+3 in recent years. MTSU is the most likely to receive an at-large, as they have developed a mini-power in Murfreesboro, but they were underseeded last year (suggesting they likely would not have received an at-large had they failed to secure an auto-bid). Is there any reason to suggest that this year will be any different, other than being in the AP Top 25? The Blue Raiders would be better off just grabbing the auto-bid instead of leaving this to the committee. With that said, there resume is now impressive enough to warrant "probably in" status, even if they fail to win the C-USA Tournament.
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): MTSU
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (4): Western Kentucky, Louisiana, Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State
Bracketology: NC State Drops to the Last Team In; Penn State Makes Its Move
**Updated through all games completed as of Friday, March 2, 2018 at 11:00 PM CT**
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2 Seeds: Purdue, Michigan State, North Carolina, Duke
3 Seeds: Cincinnati, Tennessee, Auburn, Wichita State
4 Seeds: Clemson, Kentucky, West Virginia, Ohio State
5 Seeds: Texas Tech, Michigan, Seton Hall, Gonzaga
6 Seeds: Arizona, Miami, Houston, TCU
7 Seeds: Rhode Island, Texas A&M, Nevada, Arkansas
8 Seeds: Saint Bonaventure, Butler, Florida State, Creighton
9 Seeds: Florida, Missouri, Arizona State, St. Mary's
10 Seeds: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Alabama, Providence
11 Seeds: MTSU, Louisville, Baylor, USC/Kansas State
12 Seeds: Louisiana, Texas/NC State, Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo
13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Murray State, Vermont, South Dakota State
14 Seeds: Rider, Bucknell, UNC-Greensboro, Charleston
15 Seeds: Montana, Northern Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, Wagner
16 Seeds: Winthrop, UC-Irvine, Penn/Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Nicholls/Bethune-Cookman
Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.
Last Four Byes:
Alabama
Providence
Louisville
Baylor
Last Four In:
USC
Texas
Kansas State
NC State
First Four Out:
Washington
Utah
UCLA
Penn State
Next Four Out:
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Nebraska
Marquette
In Contention (no particular order):
Mississippi State
Western Kentucky
Davidson
Georgia
Boise State
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
Pac-12: 3
American: 3
West Coast: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2 Seeds: Purdue, Michigan State, North Carolina, Duke
3 Seeds: Cincinnati, Tennessee, Auburn, Wichita State
4 Seeds: Clemson, Kentucky, West Virginia, Ohio State
5 Seeds: Texas Tech, Michigan, Seton Hall, Gonzaga
6 Seeds: Arizona, Miami, Houston, TCU
7 Seeds: Rhode Island, Texas A&M, Nevada, Arkansas
8 Seeds: Saint Bonaventure, Butler, Florida State, Creighton
9 Seeds: Florida, Missouri, Arizona State, St. Mary's
10 Seeds: Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Alabama, Providence
11 Seeds: MTSU, Louisville, Baylor, USC/Kansas State
12 Seeds: Louisiana, Texas/NC State, Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo
13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Murray State, Vermont, South Dakota State
14 Seeds: Rider, Bucknell, UNC-Greensboro, Charleston
15 Seeds: Montana, Northern Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, Wagner
16 Seeds: Winthrop, UC-Irvine, Penn/Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Nicholls/Bethune-Cookman
Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.
Last Four Byes:
Alabama
Providence
Louisville
Baylor
Last Four In:
USC
Texas
Kansas State
NC State
First Four Out:
Washington
Utah
UCLA
Penn State
Next Four Out:
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Nebraska
Marquette
In Contention (no particular order):
Mississippi State
Western Kentucky
Davidson
Georgia
Boise State
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
Pac-12: 3
American: 3
West Coast: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
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