Bubble Watch

I'm adding a new category tonight.  "Watch Out" teams are teams that have shown flashes, but have no real at-large potential, but could legitimately make a big run in the conference tournament.  This only applies to schools from the major conferences.

Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.
Watch Out- Teams that will not get at-larges, but could make a big run in their conference tourney


SEC:
I'm going to say it: A&M had a shot at lockdom tonight against Arkansas.  But, they, and Ole Miss, should get there sooner or later.  Things are looking up for high-end bubble teams Georgia and LSU, as well.
Locks (2): Kentucky, Arkansas
Probably In (2): Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Bubble (2): Georgia, LSU
Probably Out (1): Alabama
Watch Out (2): Florida, Vanderbilt

ACC:
Huge win today for NC State, who is not ready to be bumped yet, but is moving in the right direction.
Locks (5): Virginia, Duke, UNC, Louisville, Notre Dame
Probably In (0):
Bubble (3): NC State, Pittsburgh, Miami
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Florida St. 

Big 12:
The question of the century: Is a potentially 6-12 Big 12 record good enough for Texas, who has an otherwise superb resume?  On the other side of the coin, could Kansas St. get in after barely having a winning overall record, but going 9-9 in the nation's toughest conference?  This is getting weird.
Locks (5): Kansas, Iowa St., Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia
Probably In (1): Oklahoma St.
Bubble (1): Texas
Probably Out (1): Kansas St.
Watch Out (0):

Big Ten:
Michigan St. has quietly substantially improved its resume in recent weeks.  Seeding could be interesting, but they should make the Big Dance this year.  Ohio St. and Iowa, while in for now, are getting dangerously close.
Locks (2): Wisconsin, Maryland
Probably In (2): Indiana, Michigan St.
Bubble (4): Iowa, Ohio St., Illinois, Purdue
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Michigan

Pac-12:
A huge win for Oregon's resume gets them onto the right side of the bubble, but not off it entirely.  Meanwhile, Stanford and UCLA are both slumping, and Oregon St., not California, could be the surprise from the Pac-12.
Locks (2): Arizona, Utah
Probably In (0):
Bubble (3): Stanford, UCLA, Oregon
Probably Out (1): Oregon St.
Watch Out (1): Arizona St.

Big East:
St. John's had a big win over Xavier, which is not yet enough to get it of the bubble, but which does make me worry that I was hasty to lock up Xavier.
Locks (5): Villanova, Butler, Georgetown, Providence, Xavier
Probably In (0): 
Bubble (1): St. John's
Probably Out (1): Seton Hall
Watch Out (0):

American:
UConn is the exact type of team that the Watch Out category was made for.  The defending national champions just don't have an at-large resume, but would anyone be willing to bet on them losing in Hartford with a spot in March Madness on the line?
Locks (1): SMU
Probably In (0):
Bubble (3): Cincinnati, Temple, Tulsa
Probably Out (1): Memphis
Watch Out (1): UConn

Missouri Valley:
Do I really need to say anything?
Locks (2): Northern Iowa, Wichita St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):

Mountain West:
The Mountain West is down, but its RPI numbers are not terrible.  SDSU is fine, CSU just needs to avoid bad losses, Boise is closing in on the bubble, and Wyoming needs a miracle.
Locks (1): San Diego St.
Probably In (1): Colorado St.
Bubble (1): Boise St.
Probably Out (1): Wyoming
Watch Out (0):

Atlantic-10:
La Salle is done.  UMass's loss to Rhode Island hurts, but is not enough to take the Minutemen off the bubble.  Meanwhile, it gets Rhode Island back onto the bubble.
Locks (1): VCU
Probably In (1): Dayton
Bubble (3): UMass, Davidson, Rhode Island
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):

West Coast:
St. Mary's just missed what would have been an incredible win!  But, both the Gaels and BYU remain firmly on the bubble with only a couple weeks of action left.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (0):
Bubble (2): St. Mary's, BYU
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):

Other Contenders:
So much for the Ivy League getting two.  They could not afford another loss for Harvard/Yale against other opponents, and Yale's home loss to Columbia should cover that.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Wofford
Probably Out (2): Harvard, Iona

Totals:
Locks: 27
Probably In: 7
Bubble: 24 (for 13 at-large spots)
Probably Out: 8 (Harvard and Iona would get auto-bids as of today)
Watch Out: 6