We are not doing a full Bubble Watch tonight, but here are my changes:
Texas A&M: Probably In --> Lock
Syracuse: Bubble --> Probably Out
Georgia: Probably Out --> Off the board (for now)
Nevada: Probably In --> Lock (assuming their 28-point 1st half lead holds up)
Currently the bubble (not including projected auto-bid MTSU) consists of six teams (Texas, Kansas State, Nebraska, Washington, Utah, and UCLA) for two bids.
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Bracketology: Syracuse Digs a Deeper Hole
**Updated through all games completed as of Wednesday, February 28, 2018 at 10:30 PM CT**
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2 Seeds: Purdue, Michigan State, North Carolina, Duke
3 Seeds: Cincinnati, Tennessee, Auburn, Wichita State
4 Seeds: Clemson, Ohio State, Kentucky, West Virginia
5 Seeds: Texas Tech, Michigan, Seton Hall, Gonzaga
6 Seeds: Rhode Island, Arizona, Miami, Houston
7 Seeds: TCU, Texas A&M, Nevada, Arkansas
8 Seeds: Saint Bonaventure, Butler, Florida State, Creighton
9 Seeds: Florida, Missouri, Alabama, Arizona State
10 Seeds: Saint Mary's, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Providence
11 Seeds: Louisville, Baylor, Middle Tennessee, NC State/Kansas State
12 Seeds: Louisiana, USC/Texas, Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo
13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Murray State, Vermont, South Dakota State
14 Seeds: Rider, Bucknell, UNC-Greensboro, Charleston
15 Seeds: Montana, Northern Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, Wagner
16 Seeds: Winthrop, UC-Irvine, Penn/Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Nicholls/Bethune-Cookman
Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.
Last Four Byes:
Oklahoma
Providence
Louisville
Baylor
Last Four In:
NC State
USC
Texas
Kansas State
First Four Out:
Washington
Utah
UCLA
Nebraska
Next Four Out:
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Marquette
Mississippi State
In Contention (no particular order):
Penn State
Western Kentucky
Davidson
Georgia
Oregon
Boise State
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
Pac-12: 3
American: 3
West Coast: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2 Seeds: Purdue, Michigan State, North Carolina, Duke
3 Seeds: Cincinnati, Tennessee, Auburn, Wichita State
4 Seeds: Clemson, Ohio State, Kentucky, West Virginia
5 Seeds: Texas Tech, Michigan, Seton Hall, Gonzaga
6 Seeds: Rhode Island, Arizona, Miami, Houston
7 Seeds: TCU, Texas A&M, Nevada, Arkansas
8 Seeds: Saint Bonaventure, Butler, Florida State, Creighton
9 Seeds: Florida, Missouri, Alabama, Arizona State
10 Seeds: Saint Mary's, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Providence
11 Seeds: Louisville, Baylor, Middle Tennessee, NC State/Kansas State
12 Seeds: Louisiana, USC/Texas, Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo
13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Murray State, Vermont, South Dakota State
14 Seeds: Rider, Bucknell, UNC-Greensboro, Charleston
15 Seeds: Montana, Northern Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, Wagner
16 Seeds: Winthrop, UC-Irvine, Penn/Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Nicholls/Bethune-Cookman
Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.
Last Four Byes:
Oklahoma
Providence
Louisville
Baylor
Last Four In:
NC State
USC
Texas
Kansas State
First Four Out:
Washington
Utah
UCLA
Nebraska
Next Four Out:
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Marquette
Mississippi State
In Contention (no particular order):
Penn State
Western Kentucky
Davidson
Georgia
Oregon
Boise State
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
Pac-12: 3
American: 3
West Coast: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Bubble Watch: Missouri is Safe; Virginia Tech, and Baylor are Probably In the NCAA Tournament
**Up to date as of the end of 2/27/18**
Over in our Bracketology, we currently have the majority of the 36 at-large bids being consumed by three conferences- the ACC, Big 12, and the suddenly strong SEC. That SEC was a three-bid league just two years ago (with one even falling in the First Four) and just a five-bid one last year. This year, it is looking solid for eight with an outside path to nine, or even ten. It is also worth noting that lock means lock, and we will not put teams in that status if we think that they even need one more win the rest of the way.
Math:
Locks: 29 (includes nine auto-bids)
Probably In: 15 (includes one auto-bid)
Bubble: 8 (for two at-large bids; MTSU currently projected as an auto-bid)
Probably Out: 10 (includes three auto-bids)
SEC:
What a turnaround for the SEC in 2018, despite some usual contenders having down years (including one of the two SEC teams to make it in both 2016 and 2017- Vanderbilt, which is nowhere to be found on this page- and a Final Four team from 2017 in South Carolina). I certainly think setting a league record is likely, if not nearly certain. All three "Probably In" teams are closer to locks than the bubble, and could take steps towards securing their bids entirely this week. The two "Probably Out" teams are right on the border of moving up to the bubble category. Mississippi State is a really interesting case, as it has a winning record in one of the strongest leagues in America, but that is probably the best thing about its resume right now. It did not beat Tennessee, but will certainly have more opportunities.
Locks (5): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri
Probably In (3): Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Mississippi State, Georgia
Over/Under: 8.5
ACC:
No question about it- Virginia Tech made a major push towards securing a NCAA Tournament bid by beating Duke on Monday. Like it or not, RPI and RPI-based SOS are still factors the committee uses, and they are relatively weak there. Would they make it if they lost this weekend and in their first game in the ACC Tournament? Maybe. That is not a lock (sorry, ESPN Bubble Watch). Win one more, and I will pull the trigger, Hokies.
Locks (5): Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Probably In (4): Florida State, Louisville, NC State, Virginia Tech
Bubble (1): Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Notre Dame
Over/Under: 9
Big 12:
If you want to watch an exciting, topsy-turvy league that will have a lot on the line in its conference tournament, watch the Big 12. Just when we thought Oklahoma was safe, they get blown out in Waco, an effort that earns the Bears "Probably In" status as well. We may or may not be able to hand out locks this weekend.
Locks (4): Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU
Probably In (2): Oklahoma, Baylor
Bubble (2): Texas, Kansas State
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 7
Big East:
Providence should be OK, and Marquette needs a miracle. Honestly, there is not much interesting to report in the Big East, besides jockeying for seeding- including two possible #1 seeds in Villanova and Xavier.
Locks (5): Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Marquette
Over/Under: 6
Big Ten:
Nebraska has a great record and will receive a double-bye at Madison Square Garden next week. But, the rest of their resume is mediocre, and they will probably need a signature win in the Big Apple. Penn State is another interesting case for the committee. They have a season sweep of Ohio State and excellent numbers in the advanced metrics (28 in BPI and 32 in KenPom), but the traditional metrics (9-9 in a weak Big Ten and a dreadful RPI in the 80s) make it unlikely that the committee will give them a bid.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Nebraska
Probably Out (1): Penn State
Over/Under: 4.5
Pac-12:
Slumping Arizona State needs to stop the bleeding. If it were not for one of the best non-conference resumes in the country, this team would not even be a bubble team. Washington, Utah, UCLA, and Oregon all need to pick up big wins to have a shot, while USC just needs to avoid bad losses.
Locks (1): Arizona
Probably In (2): Arizona State, USC
Bubble (3): Washington, Utah, UCLA
Probably Out (1): Oregon
Over/Under: 3.5
American:
Nothing to see here unless we have some bid thievery.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 3
Atlantic 10:
Davidson gave it such an effort, losing in 3 OT to Saint Bonaventure, but it was not quite enough. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, I think that ends any possibility of an at-large bid. Let's all try to forget about Rhode Island somehow losing by 30 to Saint Joe's. They were already a lock, but what happened there?
Locks (1): Rhode Island
Probably In (1): Saint Bonaventure
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 2
Mountain West:
We are just being cautious with Nevada. One more win (against UNLV or San Diego State) should do it for the Wolf Pack. Boise probably needed to win out all the way to the MWC Championship against Nevada to have an at-large chance, but they lost to San Diego State. I do not think there are the opportunities for big wins necessary for the Broncos to get an at-large bid.
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): Nevada
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 1.5
West Coast:
Yet another season, yet another year where Gonzaga and St. Mary's will likely represent the WCC in March Madness.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (1): Saint Mary's
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 2
Others:
The committee has not been kind to teams outside the Power 7+3 in recent years. MTSU is the most likely to receive an at-large, as they have developed a mini-power in Murfreesboro, but they were underseeded last year (suggesting they likely would not have received an at-large had they failed to secure an auto-bid). Is there any reason to suggest that this year will be any different, other than being in the AP Top 25? The Blue Raiders would be better off just grabbing the auto-bid instead of leaving this to the committee.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): MTSU
Probably Out (4): Western Kentucky, Louisiana, Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State
Over in our Bracketology, we currently have the majority of the 36 at-large bids being consumed by three conferences- the ACC, Big 12, and the suddenly strong SEC. That SEC was a three-bid league just two years ago (with one even falling in the First Four) and just a five-bid one last year. This year, it is looking solid for eight with an outside path to nine, or even ten. It is also worth noting that lock means lock, and we will not put teams in that status if we think that they even need one more win the rest of the way.
Math:
Locks: 29 (includes nine auto-bids)
Probably In: 15 (includes one auto-bid)
Bubble: 8 (for two at-large bids; MTSU currently projected as an auto-bid)
Probably Out: 10 (includes three auto-bids)
SEC:
What a turnaround for the SEC in 2018, despite some usual contenders having down years (including one of the two SEC teams to make it in both 2016 and 2017- Vanderbilt, which is nowhere to be found on this page- and a Final Four team from 2017 in South Carolina). I certainly think setting a league record is likely, if not nearly certain. All three "Probably In" teams are closer to locks than the bubble, and could take steps towards securing their bids entirely this week. The two "Probably Out" teams are right on the border of moving up to the bubble category. Mississippi State is a really interesting case, as it has a winning record in one of the strongest leagues in America, but that is probably the best thing about its resume right now. It did not beat Tennessee, but will certainly have more opportunities.
Locks (5): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri
Probably In (3): Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Mississippi State, Georgia
Over/Under: 8.5
ACC:
No question about it- Virginia Tech made a major push towards securing a NCAA Tournament bid by beating Duke on Monday. Like it or not, RPI and RPI-based SOS are still factors the committee uses, and they are relatively weak there. Would they make it if they lost this weekend and in their first game in the ACC Tournament? Maybe. That is not a lock (sorry, ESPN Bubble Watch). Win one more, and I will pull the trigger, Hokies.
Locks (5): Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Probably In (4): Florida State, Louisville, NC State, Virginia Tech
Bubble (1): Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Notre Dame
Over/Under: 9
Big 12:
If you want to watch an exciting, topsy-turvy league that will have a lot on the line in its conference tournament, watch the Big 12. Just when we thought Oklahoma was safe, they get blown out in Waco, an effort that earns the Bears "Probably In" status as well. We may or may not be able to hand out locks this weekend.
Locks (4): Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU
Probably In (2): Oklahoma, Baylor
Bubble (2): Texas, Kansas State
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 7
Big East:
Providence should be OK, and Marquette needs a miracle. Honestly, there is not much interesting to report in the Big East, besides jockeying for seeding- including two possible #1 seeds in Villanova and Xavier.
Locks (5): Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Marquette
Over/Under: 6
Big Ten:
Nebraska has a great record and will receive a double-bye at Madison Square Garden next week. But, the rest of their resume is mediocre, and they will probably need a signature win in the Big Apple. Penn State is another interesting case for the committee. They have a season sweep of Ohio State and excellent numbers in the advanced metrics (28 in BPI and 32 in KenPom), but the traditional metrics (9-9 in a weak Big Ten and a dreadful RPI in the 80s) make it unlikely that the committee will give them a bid.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Nebraska
Probably Out (1): Penn State
Over/Under: 4.5
Pac-12:
Slumping Arizona State needs to stop the bleeding. If it were not for one of the best non-conference resumes in the country, this team would not even be a bubble team. Washington, Utah, UCLA, and Oregon all need to pick up big wins to have a shot, while USC just needs to avoid bad losses.
Locks (1): Arizona
Probably In (2): Arizona State, USC
Bubble (3): Washington, Utah, UCLA
Probably Out (1): Oregon
Over/Under: 3.5
American:
Nothing to see here unless we have some bid thievery.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 3
Atlantic 10:
Davidson gave it such an effort, losing in 3 OT to Saint Bonaventure, but it was not quite enough. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, I think that ends any possibility of an at-large bid. Let's all try to forget about Rhode Island somehow losing by 30 to Saint Joe's. They were already a lock, but what happened there?
Locks (1): Rhode Island
Probably In (1): Saint Bonaventure
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 2
Mountain West:
We are just being cautious with Nevada. One more win (against UNLV or San Diego State) should do it for the Wolf Pack. Boise probably needed to win out all the way to the MWC Championship against Nevada to have an at-large chance, but they lost to San Diego State. I do not think there are the opportunities for big wins necessary for the Broncos to get an at-large bid.
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): Nevada
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 1.5
West Coast:
Yet another season, yet another year where Gonzaga and St. Mary's will likely represent the WCC in March Madness.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (1): Saint Mary's
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 2
Others:
The committee has not been kind to teams outside the Power 7+3 in recent years. MTSU is the most likely to receive an at-large, as they have developed a mini-power in Murfreesboro, but they were underseeded last year (suggesting they likely would not have received an at-large had they failed to secure an auto-bid). Is there any reason to suggest that this year will be any different, other than being in the AP Top 25? The Blue Raiders would be better off just grabbing the auto-bid instead of leaving this to the committee.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): MTSU
Probably Out (4): Western Kentucky, Louisiana, Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State
Bracketology: Virginia Tech and Miami Make Major Moves; Oklahoma and Boise State Fall
**Updated through all games played on Tuesday, February 27, 2018**
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2 Seeds: Purdue, Michigan State, North Carolina, Duke
3 Seeds: Cincinnati, Tennessee, Auburn, Wichita State
4 Seeds: Clemson, Ohio State, Kentucky, West Virginia
5 Seeds: Texas Tech, Michigan, Seton Hall, Gonzaga
6 Seeds: Rhode Island, Arizona, Miami, Butler
7 Seeds: Houston, TCU, Texas A&M, Nevada
8 Seeds: Arkansas, Florida State, Saint Bonaventure, Creighton
9 Seeds: Florida, Missouri, Alabama, Arizona State
10 Seeds: Saint Mary's, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Providence
11 Seeds: Louisville, Baylor, Middle Tennessee, NC State/Kansas State
12 Seeds: Louisiana, USC/Texas, Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo
13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Murray State, Vermont, South Dakota State
14 Seeds: Rider, Bucknell, UNC-Greensboro, Charleston
15 Seeds: Montana, Northern Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, Wagner
16 Seeds: Winthrop, UC-Irvine, Penn/Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Nicholls/Bethune-Cookman
Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.
Last Four Byes:
Oklahoma
Providence
Louisville
Baylor
Last Four In:
NC State
USC
Texas
Kansas State
First Four Out:
Syracuse
Washington
Utah
UCLA
Next Four Out:
Georgia
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Marquette
In Contention (no particular order):
Penn State
Western Kentucky
Davidson
Mississippi State
Oregon
Boise State
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
Pac-12: 3
American: 3
West Coast: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
2 Seeds: Purdue, Michigan State, North Carolina, Duke
3 Seeds: Cincinnati, Tennessee, Auburn, Wichita State
4 Seeds: Clemson, Ohio State, Kentucky, West Virginia
5 Seeds: Texas Tech, Michigan, Seton Hall, Gonzaga
6 Seeds: Rhode Island, Arizona, Miami, Butler
7 Seeds: Houston, TCU, Texas A&M, Nevada
8 Seeds: Arkansas, Florida State, Saint Bonaventure, Creighton
9 Seeds: Florida, Missouri, Alabama, Arizona State
10 Seeds: Saint Mary's, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Providence
11 Seeds: Louisville, Baylor, Middle Tennessee, NC State/Kansas State
12 Seeds: Louisiana, USC/Texas, Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo
13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Murray State, Vermont, South Dakota State
14 Seeds: Rider, Bucknell, UNC-Greensboro, Charleston
15 Seeds: Montana, Northern Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, Wagner
16 Seeds: Winthrop, UC-Irvine, Penn/Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Nicholls/Bethune-Cookman
Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.
Last Four Byes:
Oklahoma
Providence
Louisville
Baylor
Last Four In:
NC State
USC
Texas
Kansas State
First Four Out:
Syracuse
Washington
Utah
UCLA
Next Four Out:
Georgia
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Marquette
In Contention (no particular order):
Penn State
Western Kentucky
Davidson
Mississippi State
Oregon
Boise State
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
Pac-12: 3
American: 3
West Coast: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Sunday, February 25, 2018
Bubble Watch- February 25, 2018: Three Conferences Dominating At-Large Bids
**Up to date as of the end of 2/25/18**
Over in our Bracketology, we currently have the majority of the 36 at-large bids being consumed by three conferences- the ACC, Big 12, and the suddenly strong SEC. That SEC was a three-bid league just two years ago (with one even falling in the First Four) and just a five-bid one last year. This year, it is looking solid for eight with an outside path to nine, or even ten. It is also worth noting that lock means lock, and we will not put teams in that status if we think that they even need one more win the rest of the way.
Math:
Locks: 28 (includes nine auto-bids)
Probably In: 14 (includes one auto-bid)
Bubble: 10 (for four at-large bids; MTSU currently projected as an auto-bid)
Probably Out: 12 (includes three auto-bids)
SEC:
What a turnaround for the SEC in 2018, despite some usual contenders having down years (including one of the two SEC teams to make it in both 2016 and 2017- Vanderbilt, which is nowhere to be found on this page- and a Final Four team from 2017 in South Carolina). I certainly think setting a league record is likely, if not nearly certain. All four "Probably In" teams are closer to locks than the bubble, and could take steps towards securing their bids entirely this week. The two "Probably Out" teams are right on the border of moving up to the bubble category. Mississippi State is a really interesting case, as it has a winning record in one of the strongest leagues in America, but that is probably the best thing about its resume right now. Beat Tennessee on Tuesday, and then we will talk!
Locks (4): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas
Probably In (4): Alabama, Texas A&M, Missouri, Florida
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Mississippi State, Georgia
Over/Under: 8.5
ACC:
The ACC has a much stronger top than the SEC does, but it also has more of its teams in shaky position. NC State's win over Florida State today was a major step that moved it off the bubble (while also preventing FSU from becoming the ACC's sixth lock). Virginia Tech and Syracuse are pure bubble teams with very different resumes. Syracuse's is somewhat deeper with the quality of wins, while the Hokies are relying on the strongest win of anyone in the country (bubble or not) when they won in Charlottesville against the best team in the country. The advanced metrics also love Notre Dame (29 in KenPom and 31 in BPI), but it likely will not be enough.
Locks (5): Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Probably In (3): Florida State, Louisville, NC State
Bubble (2): Virginia Tech, Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Notre Dame
Over/Under: 9
Big 12:
If you want to watch an exciting, topsy-turvy league that will have a lot on the line in its conference tournament, watch the Big 12. This league currently features three of the last four in, but slight changes could move its fortune completely. It seems that Oklahoma has finally stabilized following a much-needed win this weekend, but Trae Young and company are not safe just yet. Add the fact that Oklahoma State and Iowa State are very capable programs, and expect craziness in Kansas City.
Locks (4): Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU
Probably In (1): Oklahoma
Bubble (3): Texas, Baylor, Kansas State
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 7
Big East:
Providence should be OK, and Marquette needs a miracle. Honestly, there is not much interesting to report in the Big East, besides jockeying for seeding- including two possible #1 seeds in Villanova and Xavier.
Locks (5): Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Marquette
Over/Under: 6
Big Ten:
Nebraska has a great record and will receive a double-bye at Madison Square Garden next week. But, the rest of their resume is mediocre, and they will probably need a signature win in the Big Apple. Penn State is another interesting case for the committee. They have a season sweep of Ohio State and excellent numbers in the advanced metrics (28 in BPI and 32 in KenPom), but the traditional metrics (9-9 in a weak Big Ten and a dreadful RPI in the 80s) make it unlikely that the committee will give them a bid.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Nebraska
Probably Out (1): Penn State
Over/Under: 4.5
Pac-12:
Slumping Arizona State needs to stop the bleeding. If it were not for one of the best non-conference resumes in the country, this team would not even be a bubble team. Washington, Utah, UCLA, and Oregon all need to pick up big wins to have a shot, while USC just needs to avoid bad losses.
Locks (1): Arizona
Probably In (2): Arizona State, USC
Bubble (3): Washington, Utah, UCLA
Probably Out (1): Oregon
Over/Under: 3.5
American:
Nothing to see here unless we have some bid thievery.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 3
Atlantic 10:
Davidson is like a slightly worse-off Penn State or Notre Dame in that there is a dichotomy between the traditional metrics (particularly their RPI of around 90) and some advanced metrics (particularly the BPI of 39), but despite a decent conference record, it is very hard to see a mid-major overcoming that RPI. Don't count them out of an auto-bid, however.
Locks (1): Rhode Island
Probably In (1): Saint Bonaventure
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Davidson
Over/Under: 2
Mountain West:
We are just being cautious with Nevada. One more win (against UNLV or San Diego State) should do it for the Wolf Pack. Boise probably needs to win out all the way to the MWC Championship against Nevada to have an at-large chance. Leagues like this also tend to be where bid thieves flourish.
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): Nevada
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Boise State
Over/Under: 1.5
West Coast:
Yet another season, yet another year where Gonzaga and St. Mary's will likely represent the WCC in March Madness.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (1): Saint Mary's
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 2
Others:
The committee has not been kind to teams outside the Power 7+3 in recent years. MTSU is the most likely to receive an at-large, as they have developed a mini-power in Murfreesboro, but they were underseeded last year (suggesting they likely would not have received an at-large had they failed to secure an auto-bid). Is there any reason to suggest that this year will be any different, other than being in the AP Top 25? The Blue Raiders would be better off just grabbing the auto-bid instead of leaving this to the committee.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): MTSU
Probably Out (4): Western Kentucky, Louisiana, Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State
Over in our Bracketology, we currently have the majority of the 36 at-large bids being consumed by three conferences- the ACC, Big 12, and the suddenly strong SEC. That SEC was a three-bid league just two years ago (with one even falling in the First Four) and just a five-bid one last year. This year, it is looking solid for eight with an outside path to nine, or even ten. It is also worth noting that lock means lock, and we will not put teams in that status if we think that they even need one more win the rest of the way.
Math:
Locks: 28 (includes nine auto-bids)
Probably In: 14 (includes one auto-bid)
Bubble: 10 (for four at-large bids; MTSU currently projected as an auto-bid)
Probably Out: 12 (includes three auto-bids)
SEC:
What a turnaround for the SEC in 2018, despite some usual contenders having down years (including one of the two SEC teams to make it in both 2016 and 2017- Vanderbilt, which is nowhere to be found on this page- and a Final Four team from 2017 in South Carolina). I certainly think setting a league record is likely, if not nearly certain. All four "Probably In" teams are closer to locks than the bubble, and could take steps towards securing their bids entirely this week. The two "Probably Out" teams are right on the border of moving up to the bubble category. Mississippi State is a really interesting case, as it has a winning record in one of the strongest leagues in America, but that is probably the best thing about its resume right now. Beat Tennessee on Tuesday, and then we will talk!
Locks (4): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas
Probably In (4): Alabama, Texas A&M, Missouri, Florida
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Mississippi State, Georgia
Over/Under: 8.5
ACC:
The ACC has a much stronger top than the SEC does, but it also has more of its teams in shaky position. NC State's win over Florida State today was a major step that moved it off the bubble (while also preventing FSU from becoming the ACC's sixth lock). Virginia Tech and Syracuse are pure bubble teams with very different resumes. Syracuse's is somewhat deeper with the quality of wins, while the Hokies are relying on the strongest win of anyone in the country (bubble or not) when they won in Charlottesville against the best team in the country. The advanced metrics also love Notre Dame (29 in KenPom and 31 in BPI), but it likely will not be enough.
Locks (5): Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Probably In (3): Florida State, Louisville, NC State
Bubble (2): Virginia Tech, Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Notre Dame
Over/Under: 9
Big 12:
If you want to watch an exciting, topsy-turvy league that will have a lot on the line in its conference tournament, watch the Big 12. This league currently features three of the last four in, but slight changes could move its fortune completely. It seems that Oklahoma has finally stabilized following a much-needed win this weekend, but Trae Young and company are not safe just yet. Add the fact that Oklahoma State and Iowa State are very capable programs, and expect craziness in Kansas City.
Locks (4): Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU
Probably In (1): Oklahoma
Bubble (3): Texas, Baylor, Kansas State
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 7
Big East:
Providence should be OK, and Marquette needs a miracle. Honestly, there is not much interesting to report in the Big East, besides jockeying for seeding- including two possible #1 seeds in Villanova and Xavier.
Locks (5): Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Marquette
Over/Under: 6
Big Ten:
Nebraska has a great record and will receive a double-bye at Madison Square Garden next week. But, the rest of their resume is mediocre, and they will probably need a signature win in the Big Apple. Penn State is another interesting case for the committee. They have a season sweep of Ohio State and excellent numbers in the advanced metrics (28 in BPI and 32 in KenPom), but the traditional metrics (9-9 in a weak Big Ten and a dreadful RPI in the 80s) make it unlikely that the committee will give them a bid.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Nebraska
Probably Out (1): Penn State
Over/Under: 4.5
Pac-12:
Slumping Arizona State needs to stop the bleeding. If it were not for one of the best non-conference resumes in the country, this team would not even be a bubble team. Washington, Utah, UCLA, and Oregon all need to pick up big wins to have a shot, while USC just needs to avoid bad losses.
Locks (1): Arizona
Probably In (2): Arizona State, USC
Bubble (3): Washington, Utah, UCLA
Probably Out (1): Oregon
Over/Under: 3.5
American:
Nothing to see here unless we have some bid thievery.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 3
Atlantic 10:
Davidson is like a slightly worse-off Penn State or Notre Dame in that there is a dichotomy between the traditional metrics (particularly their RPI of around 90) and some advanced metrics (particularly the BPI of 39), but despite a decent conference record, it is very hard to see a mid-major overcoming that RPI. Don't count them out of an auto-bid, however.
Locks (1): Rhode Island
Probably In (1): Saint Bonaventure
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Davidson
Over/Under: 2
Mountain West:
We are just being cautious with Nevada. One more win (against UNLV or San Diego State) should do it for the Wolf Pack. Boise probably needs to win out all the way to the MWC Championship against Nevada to have an at-large chance. Leagues like this also tend to be where bid thieves flourish.
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): Nevada
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Boise State
Over/Under: 1.5
West Coast:
Yet another season, yet another year where Gonzaga and St. Mary's will likely represent the WCC in March Madness.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (1): Saint Mary's
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 2
Others:
The committee has not been kind to teams outside the Power 7+3 in recent years. MTSU is the most likely to receive an at-large, as they have developed a mini-power in Murfreesboro, but they were underseeded last year (suggesting they likely would not have received an at-large had they failed to secure an auto-bid). Is there any reason to suggest that this year will be any different, other than being in the AP Top 25? The Blue Raiders would be better off just grabbing the auto-bid instead of leaving this to the committee.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): MTSU
Probably Out (4): Western Kentucky, Louisiana, Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State
Bracketology: February 25, 2018
We do have a slight change from the Selection Committee this year, with an increased focus on road and neutral wins through a quadrant system (that essentially treats beating the 75th-ranked team on the road the same as a home win over the 30th ranked team). That honestly seems a little extreme to me, and I hope they won't be too rigid on the borders (saying that beating #30 at home is more like beating #1 at home than #31, for example), but we will see when the bracket is revealed. There were not really any massive red flags from the Top 16 reveal a couple weeks ago, so I do not expect it to have a massive impact, but this is an added difficulty for 2018.
We will also be having a Bubble Watch later today, but here is our first Bracketology, updated at the end of all of Sunday's tournament-relevant games.
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, North Carolina
2 Seeds: Duke, Kansas, Purdue, Michigan State
3 Seeds: Auburn, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Wichita State
4 Seeds: Rhode Island, Clemson, Texas Tech, Ohio State
5 Seeds: Kentucky, Michigan, Seton Hall, West Virginia
6 Seeds: Gonzaga, Arizona, Butler, Houston
7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Nevada, TCU, Miami
8 Seeds: Florida State, Saint Bonaventure, Creighton, Arkansas
9 Seeds: Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arizona State
10 Seeds: Florida, Saint Mary's, Providence, Louisville
11 Seeds: NC State, Middle Tennessee, USC, Louisiana
12 Seeds: Texas/Kansas State, Virginia Tech/Baylor, Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo
13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Murray State, Vermont, South Dakota State
14 Seeds: Rider, Bucknell, UNC-Greensboro, Charleston
15 Seeds: Montana, Northern Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, Wagner
16 Seeds: Winthrop, UC-Irvine, Penn/Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Nicholls/Bethune-Cookman
Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.
Last Four Byes:
Providence
Louisville
NC State
USC
Last Four In:
Texas
Virginia Tech
Baylor
Kansas State
First Four Out:
Syracuse
Washington
Utah
UCLA
Next Four Out:
Boise State
Georgia
Mississippi State
Nebraska
In Contention:
Penn State
Western Kentucky
Davidson
Notre Dame
Oregon
Marquette
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
Pac-12: 3
American: 3
West Coast: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
We will also be having a Bubble Watch later today, but here is our first Bracketology, updated at the end of all of Sunday's tournament-relevant games.
1 Seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, North Carolina
2 Seeds: Duke, Kansas, Purdue, Michigan State
3 Seeds: Auburn, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Wichita State
4 Seeds: Rhode Island, Clemson, Texas Tech, Ohio State
5 Seeds: Kentucky, Michigan, Seton Hall, West Virginia
6 Seeds: Gonzaga, Arizona, Butler, Houston
7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Nevada, TCU, Miami
8 Seeds: Florida State, Saint Bonaventure, Creighton, Arkansas
9 Seeds: Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arizona State
10 Seeds: Florida, Saint Mary's, Providence, Louisville
11 Seeds: NC State, Middle Tennessee, USC, Louisiana
12 Seeds: Texas/Kansas State, Virginia Tech/Baylor, Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo
13 Seeds: New Mexico State, Murray State, Vermont, South Dakota State
14 Seeds: Rider, Bucknell, UNC-Greensboro, Charleston
15 Seeds: Montana, Northern Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, Wagner
16 Seeds: Winthrop, UC-Irvine, Penn/Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Nicholls/Bethune-Cookman
Bold designates a projected conference champion.
Italics designates a First Four game.
Last Four Byes:
Providence
Louisville
NC State
USC
Last Four In:
Texas
Virginia Tech
Baylor
Kansas State
First Four Out:
Syracuse
Washington
Utah
UCLA
Next Four Out:
Boise State
Georgia
Mississippi State
Nebraska
In Contention:
Penn State
Western Kentucky
Davidson
Notre Dame
Oregon
Marquette
Bids by Conference:
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 4
Pac-12: 3
American: 3
West Coast: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
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