Teams Correct
US: 68/68 --> 68 points
THEM: 68/68 --> 68 points
Score: 68-68 Tie
1-Seeds
US: 3/4, 2 exact, 1 one spot off --> 11 points
THEM: 4/4, 2 exact, 2 one off --> 14 points
Score: 82-79 Lunardi
2, 3, and 4 Seeds
US: 7/12 exact, 4 one off --> 18 points
THEM: 10/12, 2 one off --> 22 points
Score: 104-97 Lunardi
5-13 Seeds, not Last Four In
US: 26 points
THEM: 25 points
Score: 129-123 Lunardi
Last Four In
US: 4/4 In, 2/4 in First Four --> 12 points
THEM: 4/4 In, 4/4 in First Four --> 18 points
Score: 147-135 Lunardi
14-15 Seeds
US: 6/8 in Group, 6/8 Exact --> 6 points
THEM: 5/8 in Group, 4/8 Exact --> 4.5 points
Score: 151.5-141 Lunardi
16 Seeds
US: 5/6 in Group, 3/6 Exact --> 4 points
THEM: 5/6 in Group, 3/6 Exact --> 4 points
Score: 155.5-145 Lunardi
First Four Out
US: 4/4 Out, 2/4 in First Four Out --> 12 points
THEM: 4/4 Out, 1/4 in First Four Out --> 9 points
FINAL SCORE
Joe Lunardi 164.5, Better Bracketology 157
Two Takeaways:
1) I Did a Good Job: I correctly predicted the 68 teams that would be in the NCAA Tournament, something I had never done before. In fact, I tied Lunardi in his metric (teams predicted correctly). While I do not have the data to prove it, my score would have been good enough almost any other year.
2) I Lost it in Lunardi's Key Areas: Lunardi naturally focuses most on the Top Four seed lines and on the Last Four In, as those are what he gets asked about the most. In the middle of the field, bottom of the field, and the order of the out teams, I beat Lunardi 48- 42.5. In the "key areas", I lost 54-41. We both received 68 points for getting all 68 teams correct. Also, keep in mind that Bracketology is his job and something I do in my spare time.
Sunday, March 17, 2013
68 FOR 68
Better Bracketology successfully predicted all 68 teams that would make the NCAA Tournament in 2013! I half expected there to be a major curveball, such as Iona last year, but this selection committee delivered no surprises. Can we stop calling the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West mid-majors?
Bracketology
HAPPY SELECTION SUNDAY!!!!
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
1 Seeds: Louisville (East), Gonzaga (West), Indiana (Midwest), Miami (South)
2 Seeds: Duke, Kansas, Ohio St., Georgetown
3 Seeds: Michigan St., Michigan, New Mexico, Wisconsin
4 Seeds: Syracuse, Marquette, Florida, Kansas St.
5 Seeds: Notre Dame, Oklahoma St., St. Louis, Memphis
6 Seeds: Arizona, Colorado St., Butler, UNLV
7 Seeds: Illinois, San Diego St., North Carolina, VCU
8 Seeds: NC State, UCLA, Pittsburgh, Missouri
9 Seeds: Cincinnati, Creighton, Oregon, Colorado
10 Seeds: St. Mary's, Minnesota, Wichita St., Iowa St.
11 Seeds: Villanova, Belmont, Oklahoma, Ole Miss
12 Seeds: Boise St., Temple / California, La Salle / Middle Tennessee, Bucknell
13 Seeds: Akron, South Dakota St., New Mexico St., Davidson
14 Seeds: Montana, Northwestern St., Valparaiso, Harvard
15 Seeds: Iona, Pacific, Western Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast
16 Seeds: Albany, James Madison, Liberty / Southern, North Carolina A&T / LIU-Brooklyn
Last Four Byes:
Iowa St.
Villanova
Villanova
Oklahoma
Boise St.
Last Four In:
Temple
La Salle
La Salle
Middle Tennessee
California
First Four Out:
Kentucky
Maryland
Virginia
Alabama
Next Five Out:
Southern Miss
Baylor
Baylor
Tennessee
Massachusetts
Iowa
Note that the "Third Four Out" has now disappeared.
BIDS BY CONFERENCE:
Big East: 8
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
Atlantic 10: 5
Pac-12: 5
MWC: 5
ACC: 4
SEC: 3
WCC: 2
MVC: 2
Sun Belt: 2
Bracketology
HAPPY SELECTION SUNDAY!!!!
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
1 Seeds: Louisville (East), Gonzaga (West), Indiana (Midwest), Miami (South)
2 Seeds: Duke, Kansas, Ohio St., Georgetown
3 Seeds: Michigan St., Michigan, New Mexico, Wisconsin
4 Seeds: Syracuse, Marquette, Florida, Kansas St.
5 Seeds: Notre Dame, Oklahoma St., St. Louis, Memphis
6 Seeds: Arizona, Colorado St., Butler, UNLV
7 Seeds: Illinois, San Diego St., North Carolina, VCU
8 Seeds: NC State, UCLA, Pittsburgh, Missouri
9 Seeds: Cincinnati, Creighton, Oregon, Colorado
10 Seeds: St. Mary's, Minnesota, Wichita St., Iowa St.
11 Seeds: Villanova, Belmont, Oklahoma, Ole Miss
12 Seeds: Boise St., Temple / California, La Salle / Middle Tennessee, Bucknell
13 Seeds: Akron, South Dakota St., New Mexico St., Davidson
14 Seeds: Montana, Northwestern St., Valparaiso, Harvard
15 Seeds: Iona, Pacific, Western Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast
16 Seeds: Albany, James Madison, Liberty / Southern, North Carolina A&T / LIU-Brooklyn
Last Four Byes:
Iowa St.
Villanova
Villanova
Oklahoma
Boise St.
Last Four In:
Temple
La Salle
La Salle
Middle Tennessee
California
First Four Out:
Kentucky
Maryland
Virginia
Alabama
Next Five Out:
Southern Miss
Baylor
Baylor
Tennessee
Massachusetts
Iowa
Note that the "Third Four Out" has now disappeared.
BIDS BY CONFERENCE:
Big East: 8
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
Atlantic 10: 5
Pac-12: 5
MWC: 5
ACC: 4
SEC: 3
WCC: 2
MVC: 2
Sun Belt: 2
Bracketology Evaluating Metric
So that there is no suspicion or mystery around the claim that I hope to make tonight that I beat Joe Lunardi, here is how I will evaluate it:
Teams Correct
1 Point foe every team correctly predicted as in the field
1-Seeds
2 Points for every one seed picked correctly
2 Extra Points for every one seed picked in the correct order
1 Extra Point for every one seed picked one place off (incl. #4 overall as #1 2-seed)
2, 3, and 4 Seeds
2 Points for every team correctly placed on the seed line
1 Point if one seed line off
5-13 Seeds, not in Last Four In
1 Point for every team picked within one seed line of correct place (procedural issues often force movement)
0.5 Points if selections have to play in First Four
Last Four In
1.5 Points if predictions get in
3 Extra Points if they have to play in First Four
14-15 Seeds
0.5 Points for getting the team in this group (as a 14 or a 15)
0.5 Extra Points if exact seed
16 Seeds
0.5 Points for picking a 16-seed correctly
0.5 Extra Points for picking whether team has to play in First Four
First Four Out
1.5 Points if predictions are left out
3 Extra Points if among First Four Out
Teams Correct
1 Point foe every team correctly predicted as in the field
1-Seeds
2 Points for every one seed picked correctly
2 Extra Points for every one seed picked in the correct order
1 Extra Point for every one seed picked one place off (incl. #4 overall as #1 2-seed)
2, 3, and 4 Seeds
2 Points for every team correctly placed on the seed line
1 Point if one seed line off
5-13 Seeds, not in Last Four In
1 Point for every team picked within one seed line of correct place (procedural issues often force movement)
0.5 Points if selections have to play in First Four
Last Four In
1.5 Points if predictions get in
3 Extra Points if they have to play in First Four
14-15 Seeds
0.5 Points for getting the team in this group (as a 14 or a 15)
0.5 Extra Points if exact seed
16 Seeds
0.5 Points for picking a 16-seed correctly
0.5 Extra Points for picking whether team has to play in First Four
First Four Out
1.5 Points if predictions are left out
3 Extra Points if among First Four Out
NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch
Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.
Spots Available:
Locks: 35 (barring upsets, includes 4 conference winners)
Probably In: 2
Bubble: 9 (for 4 spots (or 3 with an Ole Miss win))
Probably Out: 4
ACC
Virginia and Maryland are both still squarely on the bubble. Both should be heavily rooting for Florida to beat Ole Miss today.
Locks: Miami, Duke, NC State, UNC
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Virginia, Maryland
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5
Big East
The Big East is done from a bubble standpoint, as Villanova is a lock, and St. John's is off the page.
Auto-Bid: Louisville
Locks: Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Villanova
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 8
Big Ten
Iowa missed an opportunity against Michigan St. It is not yet done, but it would take a very generous selection committee to put Iowa in.
Locks: Indiana, Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Minnesota, Illinois
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Iowa
Over / Under: 7
Big 12
After further looking into Baylor's resume, I think that it would take a Texas-sized miracle for it to get in. Thus, I have it as "Probably Out". Also, as the bubble has not shrunk, I feel comfortable moving Oklahoma to a "Lock".
Auto-Bid: KansasLocks: Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Iowa St., Oklahoma
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Baylor
Over / Under: 5
Pac-12
Oregon now joins Arizona, Colorado, and UCLA as locks. I am less bullish on California than ESPN (Lunardi and Brennan) is.
Auto-Bid: Oregon
Locks: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado
Probably In:
On the Bubble: California
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 4.5
SEC
Ole Miss is the only bubble team that can still help its own cause. A win over Florida would put it in, with an auto-bid. With a loss, Ole Miss may or may not get a bid.
Locks: Florida, Missouri
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama
Probably Out: Tennessee
Over / Under: 4
Mountain West
Boise St. should breathe a sigh of relief that the other bubble teams (save Maryland and Alabama) did not pick up huge wins. I feel comfortable tentatively moving Boise St. to "Probably In".
Auto-Bid: New Mexico
Locks: Colorado St., UNLV, San Diego St.
Probably In: Boise St.
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5
Atlantic Ten
La Salle and Temple both had decent, but not spectacular A-10 Tournaments. I think that both ultimately get in, but I will only move Temple up to "Probably In" for now. Also, Massachusetts re-enters the page after beating Temple. A win over VCU would make things really interesting.
Locks: Butler, St. Louis, VCU
Probably In: Temple
On the Bubble: La Salle
Probably Out: Massachusetts
Over / Under: 4.5
Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
Southern Miss took Memphis into double overtime; while I still think that it will eventually be out, I am not comfortable enough with that prediction to keep it off the "On the Bubble" line. Meanwhile, Memphis moves off the "Locks" line, as it is now official.
Punched a Ticket: Florida Gulf Coast, Harvard, Belmont, Creighton, Liberty, James Madison, Davidson, Iona, Gonzaga, Western Kentucky, LIU-Brooklyn, Valparaiso, South Dakota St., Bucknell, Memphis, Albany, Southern, North Carolina A&T, Akron, Northwestern St., Montana, Pacific, New Mexico St.
Locks: Wichita St., St. Mary's
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Middle Tennessee St., Southern Miss
Probably Out:
Bracketology
HAPPY SELECTION SUNDAY!!!!
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
One of today's big questions is whether or not Ole Miss will get in with a loss to Florida in the SEC Championship. It may depend on the score of the game, but I would lean towards moving Maryland to my last team in should Ole Miss lose. Should Ole Miss win, the debate becomes academic.
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
One of today's big questions is whether or not Ole Miss will get in with a loss to Florida in the SEC Championship. It may depend on the score of the game, but I would lean towards moving Maryland to my last team in should Ole Miss lose. Should Ole Miss win, the debate becomes academic.
1 Seeds: Louisville (East), Gonzaga (West), Indiana (Midwest), Duke (South)
2 Seeds: Kansas, Miami, Ohio St., Georgetown
3 Seeds: Michigan St., Michigan, Florida, New Mexico
4 Seeds: Wisconsin, Syracuse, Marquette, Kansas St.
5 Seeds: Notre Dame, Oklahoma St., Arizona, Memphis
6 Seeds: St. Louis, Colorado St., Butler, UNLV
7 Seeds: Illinois, San Diego St., North Carolina, VCU
8 Seeds: NC State, UCLA, Pittsburgh, Missouri
9 Seeds: Cincinnati, Creighton, Oregon, Colorado
10 Seeds: St. Mary's, Minnesota, Wichita St., Iowa St.
11 Seeds: Villanova, Belmont, Oklahoma, Boise St.
12 Seeds: Temple, La Salle / Ole Miss, Middle Tennessee / California, Bucknell
13 Seeds: Akron, South Dakota St., New Mexico St., Davidson
14 Seeds: Montana, Northwestern St., Valparaiso, Harvard
15 Seeds: Iona, Pacific, Western Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast
16 Seeds: Albany, James Madison, Liberty / Southern, North Carolina A&T / LIU-Brooklyn
Last Four Byes:
Villanova
Oklahoma
Boise St.
Temple
Last Four In:
La Salle
Middle Tennessee
California
Ole Miss
First Four Out:
Maryland
Kentucky
Virginia
Alabama
Next Five Out:
Southern Miss
Baylor
Baylor
Tennessee
Massachusetts
Iowa
Note that the "Third Four Out" has now disappeared.
BIDS BY CONFERENCE:
Big East: 8
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 5
Atlantic 10: 5
Pac-12: 5
MWC: 5
ACC: 4
SEC: 3
WCC: 2
MVC: 2
Sun Belt: 2
Saturday, March 16, 2013
Bracketology
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
The 1-seeds are as difficult to project as ever. If you go on resume, it should be:
Duke-Indiana-Louisville-Kansas or Miami
But, if you go on recent passing of an eye test, it should be:
Louisville-Gonzaga-Kansas-Indiana
I just do not see how the #1 team in both RPI and SOS is not a 1-seed, but this is an interesting test of bracketing principles.
The 1-seeds are as difficult to project as ever. If you go on resume, it should be:
Duke-Indiana-Louisville-Kansas or Miami
But, if you go on recent passing of an eye test, it should be:
Louisville-Gonzaga-Kansas-Indiana
I just do not see how the #1 team in both RPI and SOS is not a 1-seed, but this is an interesting test of bracketing principles.
NOTE: This includes all games completed through 11:30 PM Saturday 3/16.
1 Seeds: Louisville (East), Gonzaga (West), Indiana (Midwest), Duke (South)
2 Seeds: Kansas, Miami, Ohio St., Georgetown
3 Seeds: Michigan St., Michigan, Florida, New Mexico
4 Seeds: Wisconsin, Syracuse, Marquette, Kansas St.
5 Seeds: Notre Dame, Oklahoma St., Arizona, Memphis
6 Seeds: St. Louis, Colorado St., Butler, UNLV
7 Seeds: Illinois, San Diego St., UCLA, North Carolina
8 Seeds: VCU, NC State, Pittsburgh, Missouri
9 Seeds: Cincinnati, Creighton, Colorado, Saint Mary's
10 Seeds: Minnesota, Wichita St., Oregon, Iowa St.
11 Seeds: Villanova, Belmont, Oklahoma, Boise St.
12 Seeds: Temple, La Salle / Ole Miss, Middle Tennessee / California, Bucknell
13 Seeds: Akron, South Dakota St., New Mexico St., Davidson
14 Seeds: Montana, Northwestern St., Valparaiso, Harvard
15 Seeds: Iona, Pacific, Western Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast
16 Seeds: Albany, James Madison, Liberty / Southern, North Carolina A&T / LIU-Brooklyn
Last Four Byes:
Villanova
Oklahoma
Boise St.
Temple
Last Four In:
La Salle
Middle Tennessee
California
Ole Miss
First Four Out:
Maryland
Kentucky
Virginia
Alabama
Next Five Out:
Southern Miss
Baylor
Baylor
Tennessee
Massachusetts
Iowa
Note that the "Third Four Out" has now disappeared.
BIDS BY CONFERENCE:
Big East: 8
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
Atlantic 10: 5
Pac-12: 5
MWC: 5
ACC: 4
SEC: 2
WCC: 2
MVC: 2
Sun Belt: 2
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