This is a repost from last year, and it is how I will determine if I beat Joe Lunardi, despite the fact that we agree on which 68 teams will make it.
Teams Correct
1 Point foe every team correctly predicted as in the field
1-Seeds
2 Points for every one seed picked correctly
2 Extra Points for every one seed picked in the correct order
1 Extra Point for every one seed picked one place off (incl. #4 overall as #1 2-seed)
2, 3, and 4 Seeds
2 Points for every team correctly placed on the seed line
1 Point if one seed line off
5-13 Seeds, not in Last Four In
1 Point for every team picked within one seed line of correct place (procedural issues often force movement)
0.5 Points if selections have to play in First Four
Last Four In
1.5 Points if predictions get in
3 Extra Points if they have to play in First Four
14-15 Seeds
0.5 Points for getting the team in this group (as a 14 or a 15)
0.5 Extra Points if exact seed
16 Seeds
0.5 Points for picking a 16-seed correctly
0.5 Extra Points for picking whether team has to play in First Four
First Four Out
1.5 Points if predictions are left out
3 Extra Points if among First Four Out
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Final Bracketology
HAPPY SELECTION SUNDAY!!!
NOTE: This is my final update
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
1-Seeds: Florida (South), Wichita St. (Midwest), Arizona (West), Virginia (East)
2-Seeds: Villanova, Michigan Wisconsin, Duke
3-Seeds: Kansas, Louisville, Iowa St., Creighton
4-Seeds: UCLA, Michigan St., Syracuse, Cincinnati
5-Seeds: San Diego St., North Carolina, Kentucky, VCU
6-Seeds: Connecticut, Massachusetts, Ohio St., Oklahoma
7-Seeds: St. Louis, New Mexico, Gonzaga, Baylor
8-Seeds: George Washington, Texas, Memphis, Colorado
9-Seeds: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Kansas St., Oklahoma St.
10-Seeds: St. Joe's, Stanford, BYU, Iowa
11-Seeds: SMU, Arizona St., Providence, Harvard
12-Seeds: Tennessee/Dayton, Xavier/Nebraska, North Dakota St., Stephen F. Austin
13-Seeds: Delaware, New Mexico St., Manhattan, Tulsa
14-Seeds: Western Michigan, Mercer, American, NC Central
15-Seeds: Wofford, Milwaukee, Eastern Kentucky, Louisiana Lafayette
16-Seeds: Coastal Carolina, Weber St., Albany/Texas Southern, Mount St. Mary's/Cal St. Northridge
Last Four Byes:
BYU
Iowa
SMU
Arizona St.
Last Four In:
Tennessee
Xavier
Nebraska
Dayton
First Four Out:
Florida St.
Minnesota
NC State
California
Next Four Out:
Bids By Conference:
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 6
Pac-12- 6
American- 5
Big East- 4
SEC- 3
Mountain West- 2
NOTE: This is my final update
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
1-Seeds: Florida (South), Wichita St. (Midwest), Arizona (West), Virginia (East)
2-Seeds: Villanova, Michigan Wisconsin, Duke
3-Seeds: Kansas, Louisville, Iowa St., Creighton
4-Seeds: UCLA, Michigan St., Syracuse, Cincinnati
5-Seeds: San Diego St., North Carolina, Kentucky, VCU
6-Seeds: Connecticut, Massachusetts, Ohio St., Oklahoma
7-Seeds: St. Louis, New Mexico, Gonzaga, Baylor
8-Seeds: George Washington, Texas, Memphis, Colorado
9-Seeds: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Kansas St., Oklahoma St.
10-Seeds: St. Joe's, Stanford, BYU, Iowa
11-Seeds: SMU, Arizona St., Providence, Harvard
12-Seeds: Tennessee/Dayton, Xavier/Nebraska, North Dakota St., Stephen F. Austin
13-Seeds: Delaware, New Mexico St., Manhattan, Tulsa
14-Seeds: Western Michigan, Mercer, American, NC Central
15-Seeds: Wofford, Milwaukee, Eastern Kentucky, Louisiana Lafayette
16-Seeds: Coastal Carolina, Weber St., Albany/Texas Southern, Mount St. Mary's/Cal St. Northridge
Last Four Byes:
BYU
Iowa
SMU
Arizona St.
Last Four In:
Tennessee
Xavier
Nebraska
Dayton
First Four Out:
Florida St.
Minnesota
NC State
California
Next Four Out:
Southern Miss
Arkansas
Missouri
Toledo
Arkansas
Missouri
Toledo
Bids By Conference:
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 6
Pac-12- 6
Atlantic-10- 6
ACC- 5American- 5
Big East- 4
SEC- 3
Mountain West- 2
WCC- 2
NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch
HAPPY SELECTION SUNDAY!!!
NOTE: As no bubble teams play Sunday, this will be my final Bubble Watch update of 2014.
Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.
Spots Available:
Locks: 43 (barring upsets, includes 11 conference winners)
Probably In: 2
Bubble: 4 (for 2 spots)
Probably Out: 4
ACC
NC State's resume actually stacks up very well against many bubble teams, but it will probably wind up being a little too little too late.
Locks: Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, UNC, Pitt
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Florida St.
Probably Out: NC State
Over / Under: 5.5
American
The new league has five locks and nothing else.
Locks: Louisville (auto-bid), Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis, SMU
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over/Under: 5
Big East
Xavier is probably in after the bubble did not shrink, even though it has dropped to my Last Four In. We could debate all day what would have happened had Providence not won the Big East, but it did, so it is in.
Locks: Villanova, Creighton, Providence (auto-bid)
Probably In: Xavier
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 4
Big Ten
Nebraska is still reliant on the rest of the bubble, but I feel as if there are only about 6, maybe 7 or 8 true bubble teams. After Providence's win, there is less cushion, so I am moving them back to the bubble.
Locks: Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan St., Ohio St., Iowa
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Nebraska, Minnesota
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 6
Big 12
There is nothing to say here.
Locks: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa St. (auto-bid), Kansas St., Baylor, Oklahoma St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 7
Pac-12
Time to lock up Arizona St., as no one has rushed to usurp its spot. Meanwhile, California's low RPI will likely keep it from dancing.
Locks: Arizona, UCLA (auto-bid), Colorado, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: California
Over / Under: 6.5
SEC
Tennessee passes the eye test and has beat all fellow bubble teams in the SEC of late. There is little chance that it will miss the tournament at this point. Meanwhile, Georgia missed its last opportunity for a quality win today, and Arkansas has been passed by teams like NC State, and it has a near-70 RPI.
Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Probably In: Tennessee
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Arkansas
Over / Under: 3
Mountain West
The MWC is way down from last year and completely lacks bubble drama.
Locks: San Diego St., New Mexico (auto-bid)
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 2
Atlantic Ten
St. Joe's is a lock, as nothing bad can happen playing VCU. Either it will get a big win or it will have a loss to a very good team. Dayton, meanwhile, will likely wind up as the last team in on my final bracket tomorrow and could very well become the first team to play a home NCAA Tournament game, at least in the modern era.
Locks: St. Louis, VCU, Massachusetts, George Washington, St. Joe's
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Dayton
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5
Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
I take back what I said yesterday about Southern Miss. Its gaudy RPI will give it a shot, however small it is. Meanwhile, things are not looking good for Louisiana Tech, who lost to Tulsa today and who does not have the overall resume that Southern Miss does. I have BYU as a lock, despite ESPN's Lunardi saying that it is right on the bubble (his last team in). Their resume tells me that they should get in fairly easily.
Tickets Punched: Harvard, Mercer, Coastal Carolina, Delaware, Wichita St., Manhattan, Eastern Kentucky, Wofford, Milwaukee, Mount St. Mary's, North Dakota St., Gonzaga, American, Tulsa, Albany, Texas Southern, NC Central, Western Michigan, Weber St., Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico St., Cal Poly
Locks: BYU, Wichita St., Gonzaga
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Southern Miss
NOTE: As no bubble teams play Sunday, this will be my final Bubble Watch update of 2014.
Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.
Spots Available:
Locks: 43 (barring upsets, includes 11 conference winners)
Probably In: 2
Bubble: 4 (for 2 spots)
Probably Out: 4
ACC
NC State's resume actually stacks up very well against many bubble teams, but it will probably wind up being a little too little too late.
Locks: Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, UNC, Pitt
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Florida St.
Probably Out: NC State
Over / Under: 5.5
American
The new league has five locks and nothing else.
Locks: Louisville (auto-bid), Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis, SMU
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over/Under: 5
Big East
Xavier is probably in after the bubble did not shrink, even though it has dropped to my Last Four In. We could debate all day what would have happened had Providence not won the Big East, but it did, so it is in.
Locks: Villanova, Creighton, Providence (auto-bid)
Probably In: Xavier
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 4
Big Ten
Nebraska is still reliant on the rest of the bubble, but I feel as if there are only about 6, maybe 7 or 8 true bubble teams. After Providence's win, there is less cushion, so I am moving them back to the bubble.
Locks: Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan St., Ohio St., Iowa
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Nebraska, Minnesota
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 6
Big 12
There is nothing to say here.
Locks: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa St. (auto-bid), Kansas St., Baylor, Oklahoma St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 7
Pac-12
Time to lock up Arizona St., as no one has rushed to usurp its spot. Meanwhile, California's low RPI will likely keep it from dancing.
Locks: Arizona, UCLA (auto-bid), Colorado, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: California
Over / Under: 6.5
SEC
Tennessee passes the eye test and has beat all fellow bubble teams in the SEC of late. There is little chance that it will miss the tournament at this point. Meanwhile, Georgia missed its last opportunity for a quality win today, and Arkansas has been passed by teams like NC State, and it has a near-70 RPI.
Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Probably In: Tennessee
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Arkansas
Over / Under: 3
Mountain West
The MWC is way down from last year and completely lacks bubble drama.
Locks: San Diego St., New Mexico (auto-bid)
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 2
Atlantic Ten
St. Joe's is a lock, as nothing bad can happen playing VCU. Either it will get a big win or it will have a loss to a very good team. Dayton, meanwhile, will likely wind up as the last team in on my final bracket tomorrow and could very well become the first team to play a home NCAA Tournament game, at least in the modern era.
Locks: St. Louis, VCU, Massachusetts, George Washington, St. Joe's
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Dayton
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5
Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
I take back what I said yesterday about Southern Miss. Its gaudy RPI will give it a shot, however small it is. Meanwhile, things are not looking good for Louisiana Tech, who lost to Tulsa today and who does not have the overall resume that Southern Miss does. I have BYU as a lock, despite ESPN's Lunardi saying that it is right on the bubble (his last team in). Their resume tells me that they should get in fairly easily.
Tickets Punched: Harvard, Mercer, Coastal Carolina, Delaware, Wichita St., Manhattan, Eastern Kentucky, Wofford, Milwaukee, Mount St. Mary's, North Dakota St., Gonzaga, American, Tulsa, Albany, Texas Southern, NC Central, Western Michigan, Weber St., Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico St., Cal Poly
Locks: BYU, Wichita St., Gonzaga
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Southern Miss
Bracketology- Tennessee Drops to First Four
HAPPY SELECTION SUNDAY!!!
NOTE: This is up-to-date as of the end of the day Saturday, March 15.
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
1-Seeds: Florida (South), Wichita St. (Midwest), Arizona (West), Duke (East)
2-Seeds: Michigan, Villanova, Wisconsin, Virginia
3-Seeds: Kansas, Louisville, Iowa St., Creighton
4-Seeds: UCLA, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Michigan St.
5-Seeds: San Diego St., North Carolina, VCU, Kentucky
6-Seeds: Connecticut, Massachusetts, Ohio St., Oklahoma
7-Seeds: St. Louis, New Mexico, Gonzaga, Baylor
8-Seeds: George Washington, Texas, Memphis, Colorado
9-Seeds: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Kansas St., Oklahoma St.
10-Seeds: Stanford, St. Joe's BYU, Iowa
11-Seeds: SMU, Arizona St., Providence, Harvard
12-Seeds: Tennessee/Dayton, Xavier/Nebraska, North Dakota St., Stephen F. Austin
13-Seeds: Delaware, New Mexico St., Manhattan, Tulsa
14-Seeds: Western Michigan, Mercer, American, Georgia St.
15-Seeds: Wofford, Milwaukee, NC Central, Eastern Kentucky
16-Seeds: Coastal Carolina, Weber St., Albany/Texas Southern, Mount St. Mary's/Cal St. Northridge
Last Four Byes:
BYU
Iowa
SMU
Arizona St.
Last Four In:
Tennessee
Xavier
Nebraska
Dayton
First Four Out:
Florida St.
Minnesota
NC State
California
Next Four Out:
Bids By Conference:
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 6
Pac-12- 6
American- 5
Big East- 4
SEC- 3
Mountain West- 2
NOTE: This is up-to-date as of the end of the day Saturday, March 15.
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
1-Seeds: Florida (South), Wichita St. (Midwest), Arizona (West), Duke (East)
2-Seeds: Michigan, Villanova, Wisconsin, Virginia
3-Seeds: Kansas, Louisville, Iowa St., Creighton
4-Seeds: UCLA, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Michigan St.
5-Seeds: San Diego St., North Carolina, VCU, Kentucky
6-Seeds: Connecticut, Massachusetts, Ohio St., Oklahoma
7-Seeds: St. Louis, New Mexico, Gonzaga, Baylor
8-Seeds: George Washington, Texas, Memphis, Colorado
9-Seeds: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Kansas St., Oklahoma St.
10-Seeds: Stanford, St. Joe's BYU, Iowa
11-Seeds: SMU, Arizona St., Providence, Harvard
12-Seeds: Tennessee/Dayton, Xavier/Nebraska, North Dakota St., Stephen F. Austin
13-Seeds: Delaware, New Mexico St., Manhattan, Tulsa
14-Seeds: Western Michigan, Mercer, American, Georgia St.
15-Seeds: Wofford, Milwaukee, NC Central, Eastern Kentucky
16-Seeds: Coastal Carolina, Weber St., Albany/Texas Southern, Mount St. Mary's/Cal St. Northridge
Last Four Byes:
BYU
Iowa
SMU
Arizona St.
Last Four In:
Tennessee
Xavier
Nebraska
Dayton
First Four Out:
Florida St.
Minnesota
NC State
California
Next Four Out:
Southern Miss
Arkansas
Missouri
Toledo
Arkansas
Missouri
Toledo
Bids By Conference:
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 6
Pac-12- 6
Atlantic-10- 6
ACC- 5American- 5
Big East- 4
SEC- 3
Mountain West- 2
WCC- 2
Saturday, March 15, 2014
Bracketology
NOTE: This is up-to-date as of 8:50 PM Saturday, March 15.
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
1-Seeds: Florida (South), Wichita St. (Midwest), Arizona (West), Duke (East)
2-Seeds: Michigan, Villanova, Wisconsin, Virginia
3-Seeds: Creighton, Kansas, Louisville, Iowa St.
4-Seeds: UCLA, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Michigan St.
5-Seeds: San Diego St., North Carolina, VCU, Kentucky
6-Seeds: Connecticut, Massachusetts, Ohio St., Oklahoma
7-Seeds: St. Louis, Baylor, New Mexico, Gonzaga
8-Seeds: George Washington, Texas, Memphis, Colorado
9-Seeds: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Kansas St., Oklahoma St.
10-Seeds: Stanford, St. Joe's BYU, Iowa
11-Seeds: SMU, Arizona St., Tennessee, Harvard
12-Seeds: Xavier/Dayton, Nebraska/Providence, North Dakota St., Stephen F. Austin
13-Seeds: Delaware, New Mexico St., Manhattan, Tulsa
14-Seeds: Western Michigan, Mercer, American, Georgia St.
15-Seeds: Wofford, Milwaukee, NC Central, Eastern Kentucky
16-Seeds: Coastal Carolina, Weber St., Albany/Texas Southern, Mount St. Mary's/Cal St. Northridge
Last Four Byes:
Iowa
SMU
Arizona St.
Tennessee
Last Four In:
Xavier
Nebraska
Providence
Dayton
First Four Out:
Florida St.
Minnesota
NC State
California
Next Four Out:
Bids By Conference:
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 6
Pac-12- 6
American- 5
Big East- 4
SEC- 3
Mountain West- 2
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
1-Seeds: Florida (South), Wichita St. (Midwest), Arizona (West), Duke (East)
2-Seeds: Michigan, Villanova, Wisconsin, Virginia
3-Seeds: Creighton, Kansas, Louisville, Iowa St.
4-Seeds: UCLA, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Michigan St.
5-Seeds: San Diego St., North Carolina, VCU, Kentucky
6-Seeds: Connecticut, Massachusetts, Ohio St., Oklahoma
7-Seeds: St. Louis, Baylor, New Mexico, Gonzaga
8-Seeds: George Washington, Texas, Memphis, Colorado
9-Seeds: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Kansas St., Oklahoma St.
10-Seeds: Stanford, St. Joe's BYU, Iowa
11-Seeds: SMU, Arizona St., Tennessee, Harvard
12-Seeds: Xavier/Dayton, Nebraska/Providence, North Dakota St., Stephen F. Austin
13-Seeds: Delaware, New Mexico St., Manhattan, Tulsa
14-Seeds: Western Michigan, Mercer, American, Georgia St.
15-Seeds: Wofford, Milwaukee, NC Central, Eastern Kentucky
16-Seeds: Coastal Carolina, Weber St., Albany/Texas Southern, Mount St. Mary's/Cal St. Northridge
Last Four Byes:
Iowa
SMU
Arizona St.
Tennessee
Last Four In:
Xavier
Nebraska
Providence
Dayton
First Four Out:
Florida St.
Minnesota
NC State
California
Next Four Out:
Southern Miss
Arkansas
Missouri
Toledo
Arkansas
Missouri
Toledo
Bids By Conference:
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 6
Pac-12- 6
Atlantic-10- 6
ACC- 5American- 5
Big East- 4
SEC- 3
Mountain West- 2
WCC- 2
Bracketology- The Last One Seed is Still Available
NOTE: This is up-to-date as of 6:50 PM Saturday, March 15.
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
1-Seeds: Florida (South), Wichita St. (Midwest), Arizona (West), Duke (East)
2-Seeds: Michigan, Villanova, Wisconsin, Virginia
3-Seeds: Creighton, Kansas, Iowa St., Louisville
4-Seeds: Syracuse, San Diego St., Cincinnati, UCLA
5-Seeds: Michigan St., North Carolina, VCU, Connecticut
6-Seeds: Kentucky, Massachusetts, Ohio St., Oklahoma
7-Seeds: St. Louis, Baylor, Gonzaga, George Washington
8-Seeds: New Mexico, Texas, Memphis, Colorado
9-Seeds: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Kansas St., Oklahoma St.
10-Seeds: Stanford, St. Joe's BYU, Iowa
11-Seeds: SMU, Arizona St., Tennessee, Harvard
12-Seeds: Xavier/Dayton, Nebraska/Providence, Toledo, Stephen F. Austin
13-Seeds: Iona, Delaware, New Mexico St., Manhattan
14-Seeds: Mercer, Tulsa, American, Georgia St.
15-Seeds: Wofford, Milwaukee, NC Central, Eastern Kentucky
16-Seeds: Coastal Carolina, Weber St., Albany/Texas Southern, Mount St. Mary's/Cal St. Northridge
Last Four Byes:
Iowa
SMU
Arizona St.
Tennessee
Last Four In:
Xavier
Nebraska
Providence
Dayton
First Four Out:
Florida St.
Minnesota
NC State
California
Next Four Out:
Bids By Conference:
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 6
Pac-12- 6
American- 5
Big East- 4
SEC- 3
Mountain West- 2
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
1-Seeds: Florida (South), Wichita St. (Midwest), Arizona (West), Duke (East)
2-Seeds: Michigan, Villanova, Wisconsin, Virginia
3-Seeds: Creighton, Kansas, Iowa St., Louisville
4-Seeds: Syracuse, San Diego St., Cincinnati, UCLA
5-Seeds: Michigan St., North Carolina, VCU, Connecticut
6-Seeds: Kentucky, Massachusetts, Ohio St., Oklahoma
7-Seeds: St. Louis, Baylor, Gonzaga, George Washington
8-Seeds: New Mexico, Texas, Memphis, Colorado
9-Seeds: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Kansas St., Oklahoma St.
10-Seeds: Stanford, St. Joe's BYU, Iowa
11-Seeds: SMU, Arizona St., Tennessee, Harvard
12-Seeds: Xavier/Dayton, Nebraska/Providence, Toledo, Stephen F. Austin
13-Seeds: Iona, Delaware, New Mexico St., Manhattan
14-Seeds: Mercer, Tulsa, American, Georgia St.
15-Seeds: Wofford, Milwaukee, NC Central, Eastern Kentucky
16-Seeds: Coastal Carolina, Weber St., Albany/Texas Southern, Mount St. Mary's/Cal St. Northridge
Last Four Byes:
Iowa
SMU
Arizona St.
Tennessee
Last Four In:
Xavier
Nebraska
Providence
Dayton
First Four Out:
Florida St.
Minnesota
NC State
California
Next Four Out:
Southern Miss
Arkansas
Missouri
St. John's
Arkansas
Missouri
St. John's
Bids By Conference:
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 6
Pac-12- 6
Atlantic-10- 6
ACC- 5American- 5
Big East- 4
SEC- 3
Mountain West- 2
WCC- 2
NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch- Only 4 Teams Truly on the Bubble
Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.
Spots Available:
Locks: 42 (barring upsets, includes 11 conference winners)
Probably In: 3
Bubble: 4 (for 2 spots)
Probably Out: 4
ACC
NC State's resume actually stacks up very well against many bubble teams, but it will probably wind up being a little too little too late.
Locks: Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, UNC, Pitt
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Florida St.
Probably Out: NC State
Over / Under: 5.5
American
The new league has five locks and nothing else.
Locks: Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis, SMU
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over/Under: 5
Big East
Xavier is probably in after the bubble did not shrink. I still have them going to Dayton, but they are much less likely to miss the tournament than are teams right on the cut line, such as Dayton, Florida St., and Minnesota. Providence can make it academic tonight.
Locks: Villanova, Creighton
Probably In: Xavier
On the Bubble: Providence
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 3.5
Big Ten
Nebraska is still reliant on the rest of the bubble, but I feel as if there are only about 6, maybe 7 or 8 true bubble teams. They played well yesterday, despite losing, so I will keep them at Probably In for now.
Locks: Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan St., Ohio St., Iowa
Probably In: Nebraska
On the Bubble: Minnesota
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 6.5
Big 12
There is nothing to say here.
Locks: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa St., Kansas St., Baylor, Oklahoma St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 7
Pac-12
Time to lock up Arizona St., as no one has rushed to usurp its spot. Meanwhile, California's low RPI will likely keep it from dancing.
Locks: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: California
Over / Under: 6.5
SEC
Tennessee passes the eye test and has beat all fellow bubble teams in the SEC of late. There is no way that it will miss the tournament at this point. Meanwhile, Georgia missed its last opportunity for a quality win today, and Arkansas has been passed by teams like NC State, and it has a near-70 RPI.
Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Probably In: Tennessee
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Arkansas
Over / Under: 3
Mountain West
The MWC is way down from last year and completely lacks bubble drama.
Locks: San Diego St., New Mexico
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 2
Atlantic Ten
St. Joe's is a lock, as nothing bad can happen playing VCU. Either it will get a big win or it will have a loss to a very good team. Dayton, meanwhile, will likely wind up as the last team in or the first team out on my final bracket tomorrow.
Locks: St. Louis, VCU, Massachusetts, George Washington, St. Joe's
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Dayton
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5
Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
I take back what I said yesterday about Southern Miss. Its gaudy RPI will give it a shot, however small it is. Meanwhile, things are not looking good for Louisiana Tech, who lost to Tulsa today and who does not have the overall resume that Southern Miss does. I have BYU as a lock, despite ESPN's Lunardi saying that it is right on the bubble (his last team in). Their resume tells me that they should get in fairly easily.
Tickets Punched: Harvard, Mercer, Coastal Carolina, Delaware, Wichita St., Manhattan, Eastern Kentucky, Wofford, Milwaukee, Mount St. Mary's, North Dakota St., Gonzaga, American, Tulsa, Albany
Locks: BYU, Wichita St., Gonzaga
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Southern Miss
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.
Spots Available:
Locks: 42 (barring upsets, includes 11 conference winners)
Probably In: 3
Bubble: 4 (for 2 spots)
Probably Out: 4
ACC
NC State's resume actually stacks up very well against many bubble teams, but it will probably wind up being a little too little too late.
Locks: Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, UNC, Pitt
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Florida St.
Probably Out: NC State
Over / Under: 5.5
American
The new league has five locks and nothing else.
Locks: Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis, SMU
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over/Under: 5
Big East
Xavier is probably in after the bubble did not shrink. I still have them going to Dayton, but they are much less likely to miss the tournament than are teams right on the cut line, such as Dayton, Florida St., and Minnesota. Providence can make it academic tonight.
Locks: Villanova, Creighton
Probably In: Xavier
On the Bubble: Providence
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 3.5
Big Ten
Nebraska is still reliant on the rest of the bubble, but I feel as if there are only about 6, maybe 7 or 8 true bubble teams. They played well yesterday, despite losing, so I will keep them at Probably In for now.
Locks: Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan St., Ohio St., Iowa
Probably In: Nebraska
On the Bubble: Minnesota
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 6.5
Big 12
There is nothing to say here.
Locks: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa St., Kansas St., Baylor, Oklahoma St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 7
Pac-12
Time to lock up Arizona St., as no one has rushed to usurp its spot. Meanwhile, California's low RPI will likely keep it from dancing.
Locks: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: California
Over / Under: 6.5
SEC
Tennessee passes the eye test and has beat all fellow bubble teams in the SEC of late. There is no way that it will miss the tournament at this point. Meanwhile, Georgia missed its last opportunity for a quality win today, and Arkansas has been passed by teams like NC State, and it has a near-70 RPI.
Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Probably In: Tennessee
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Arkansas
Over / Under: 3
Mountain West
The MWC is way down from last year and completely lacks bubble drama.
Locks: San Diego St., New Mexico
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 2
Atlantic Ten
St. Joe's is a lock, as nothing bad can happen playing VCU. Either it will get a big win or it will have a loss to a very good team. Dayton, meanwhile, will likely wind up as the last team in or the first team out on my final bracket tomorrow.
Locks: St. Louis, VCU, Massachusetts, George Washington, St. Joe's
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Dayton
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5
Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
I take back what I said yesterday about Southern Miss. Its gaudy RPI will give it a shot, however small it is. Meanwhile, things are not looking good for Louisiana Tech, who lost to Tulsa today and who does not have the overall resume that Southern Miss does. I have BYU as a lock, despite ESPN's Lunardi saying that it is right on the bubble (his last team in). Their resume tells me that they should get in fairly easily.
Tickets Punched: Harvard, Mercer, Coastal Carolina, Delaware, Wichita St., Manhattan, Eastern Kentucky, Wofford, Milwaukee, Mount St. Mary's, North Dakota St., Gonzaga, American, Tulsa, Albany
Locks: BYU, Wichita St., Gonzaga
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Southern Miss
Bracketology- NC State Has a Chance
NOTE: This is up-to-date as of 12:00 PM Saturday, March 15.
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
1-Seeds: Florida (South), Wichita St. (Midwest), Arizona (West), Wisconsin (East)
2-Seeds: Villanova, Duke, Michigan, Virginia
3-Seeds: Creighton, Kansas, Iowa St., Louisville
4-Seeds: Syracuse, San Diego St., Cincinnati, UCLA
5-Seeds: North Carolina, Michigan St., VCU, Connecticut
6-Seeds: Kentucky, Massachusetts, Ohio St., Oklahoma
7-Seeds: St. Louis, George Washington, Baylor, Gonzaga
8-Seeds: New Mexico, Texas, Memphis, Colorado
9-Seeds: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Kansas St., Oklahoma St.
10-Seeds: Stanford, BYU, Iowa, St. Joe's
11-Seeds: SMU, Arizona St., Tennessee, Harvard
12-Seeds: Xavier/Dayton, Nebraska/Providence, Toledo, Stephen F. Austin
13-Seeds: Louisiana Tech, Iona, Delaware, New Mexico St.
14-Seeds: Mercer, New Mexico St., American, Georgia St.
15-Seeds: Wofford, Milwaukee, Coastal Carolina, NC Central
16-Seeds: Stony Brook, Weber St., Eastern Kentucky/Texas Southern, Mount St. Mary's/Long Beach St.
Last Four Byes:
St. Joe's
SMU
Arizona St.
Tennessee
Last Four In:
Xavier
Nebraska
Providence
Dayton
First Four Out:
Florida St.
NC State
Minnesota
California
Next Five Out:
Bids By Conference:
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 6
Pac-12- 6
American- 5
Big East- 4
SEC- 3
Mountain West- 2
Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order. Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.
1-Seeds: Florida (South), Wichita St. (Midwest), Arizona (West), Wisconsin (East)
2-Seeds: Villanova, Duke, Michigan, Virginia
3-Seeds: Creighton, Kansas, Iowa St., Louisville
4-Seeds: Syracuse, San Diego St., Cincinnati, UCLA
5-Seeds: North Carolina, Michigan St., VCU, Connecticut
6-Seeds: Kentucky, Massachusetts, Ohio St., Oklahoma
7-Seeds: St. Louis, George Washington, Baylor, Gonzaga
8-Seeds: New Mexico, Texas, Memphis, Colorado
9-Seeds: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Kansas St., Oklahoma St.
10-Seeds: Stanford, BYU, Iowa, St. Joe's
11-Seeds: SMU, Arizona St., Tennessee, Harvard
12-Seeds: Xavier/Dayton, Nebraska/Providence, Toledo, Stephen F. Austin
13-Seeds: Louisiana Tech, Iona, Delaware, New Mexico St.
14-Seeds: Mercer, New Mexico St., American, Georgia St.
15-Seeds: Wofford, Milwaukee, Coastal Carolina, NC Central
16-Seeds: Stony Brook, Weber St., Eastern Kentucky/Texas Southern, Mount St. Mary's/Long Beach St.
Last Four Byes:
St. Joe's
SMU
Arizona St.
Tennessee
Last Four In:
Xavier
Nebraska
Providence
Dayton
First Four Out:
Florida St.
NC State
Minnesota
California
Next Five Out:
Georgia
Arkansas
Southern Miss
St. John's
Missouri
Arkansas
Southern Miss
St. John's
Missouri
Bids By Conference:
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 6
Pac-12- 6
Atlantic-10- 6
ACC- 5American- 5
Big East- 4
SEC- 3
Mountain West- 2
WCC- 2
Friday, March 14, 2014
NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch
Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.
Spots Available:
Locks: 40 (barring upsets, includes 11 conference winners)
Probably In: 4
Bubble: 7 (for 3 spots)
Probably Out: 4
ACC
The last need for Pitt to feel 100% safe was a quality win, which they got today. Florida St. remains squarely on the bubble despite losing to Virginia, a top-seed contender. NC State is still out for now, but they would be right on the cut line with a win Saturday over Duke.
Locks: Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, UNC, Pitt
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Florida St.
Probably Out: NC State
Over / Under: 5.5
American
The new league has five locks and nothing else.
Locks: Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis, SMU
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over/Under: 5
Big East
After seeing other results, it seems like it will be very hard for St. John's to make the NCAA Tournament this year.
Locks: Villanova, Creighton
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Xavier, Providence
Probably Out: St. John's
Over / Under: 3.5
Big Ten
Nebraska is still reliant on the rest of the bubble, but I feel as if there are only about 6, maybe 7 or 8 true bubble teams. They played well today, despite losing, so I will keep them at Probably In for now. Illinois would take a miracle to make it to the tournament.
Locks: Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan St., Ohio St., Iowa
Probably In: Nebraska
On the Bubble: Minnesota
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 6.5
Big 12
There is nothing to say here.
Locks: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa St., Kansas St., Baylor, Oklahoma St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 7
Pac-12
Stanford has moved itself from the bubble to lockdom within a couple of days. Arizona St. and Oregon are also making the tournament. The only drama resides in Berkeley, California.
Locks: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon
Probably In: Arizona St.
On the Bubble: California
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 6.5
SEC
Missouri is done. Georgia could have a shot with a trip to the SEC championship game and a close loss to Florida there. Tennessee should be fine, now that it is safely into the semifinals and cannot have a bad loss (it plays Florida in all likelihood). Arkansas, meanwhile, is on the bubble after a bad loss to South Carolina.
Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Probably In: Tennessee
On the Bubble: Arkansas
Probably Out: Georgia
Over / Under: 3.5
Mountain West
The MWC is way down from last year and completely lacks bubble drama.
Locks: San Diego St., New Mexico
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 2
Atlantic Ten
Nothing changes as a result of today's victory for St. Joe's over Dayton. They are not yet a lock, while Dayton is right on the bubble.
Locks: St. Louis, VCU, Massachusetts, George Washington
Probably In: St. Joe's
On the Bubble: Dayton
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5
Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
Southern Miss is now done after getting routed by Louisiana Tech today. Even as the the winner, Louisiana Tech would be better off taking care of business tomorrow. I am really worried about keeping BYU as a lock, but I don't want to demote a lock.
Tickets Punched: Harvard, Mercer, Coastal Carolina, Delaware, Wichita St., Manhattan, Eastern Kentucky, Wofford, Milwaukee, Mount St. Mary's, North Dakota St., Gonzaga, American
Locks: BYU, Wichita St., Gonzaga
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Louisiana Tech
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.
Spots Available:
Locks: 40 (barring upsets, includes 11 conference winners)
Probably In: 4
Bubble: 7 (for 3 spots)
Probably Out: 4
ACC
The last need for Pitt to feel 100% safe was a quality win, which they got today. Florida St. remains squarely on the bubble despite losing to Virginia, a top-seed contender. NC State is still out for now, but they would be right on the cut line with a win Saturday over Duke.
Locks: Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, UNC, Pitt
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Florida St.
Probably Out: NC State
Over / Under: 5.5
American
The new league has five locks and nothing else.
Locks: Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis, SMU
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over/Under: 5
Big East
After seeing other results, it seems like it will be very hard for St. John's to make the NCAA Tournament this year.
Locks: Villanova, Creighton
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Xavier, Providence
Probably Out: St. John's
Over / Under: 3.5
Big Ten
Nebraska is still reliant on the rest of the bubble, but I feel as if there are only about 6, maybe 7 or 8 true bubble teams. They played well today, despite losing, so I will keep them at Probably In for now. Illinois would take a miracle to make it to the tournament.
Locks: Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan St., Ohio St., Iowa
Probably In: Nebraska
On the Bubble: Minnesota
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 6.5
Big 12
There is nothing to say here.
Locks: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa St., Kansas St., Baylor, Oklahoma St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 7
Pac-12
Stanford has moved itself from the bubble to lockdom within a couple of days. Arizona St. and Oregon are also making the tournament. The only drama resides in Berkeley, California.
Locks: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon
Probably In: Arizona St.
On the Bubble: California
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 6.5
SEC
Missouri is done. Georgia could have a shot with a trip to the SEC championship game and a close loss to Florida there. Tennessee should be fine, now that it is safely into the semifinals and cannot have a bad loss (it plays Florida in all likelihood). Arkansas, meanwhile, is on the bubble after a bad loss to South Carolina.
Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Probably In: Tennessee
On the Bubble: Arkansas
Probably Out: Georgia
Over / Under: 3.5
Mountain West
The MWC is way down from last year and completely lacks bubble drama.
Locks: San Diego St., New Mexico
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 2
Atlantic Ten
Nothing changes as a result of today's victory for St. Joe's over Dayton. They are not yet a lock, while Dayton is right on the bubble.
Locks: St. Louis, VCU, Massachusetts, George Washington
Probably In: St. Joe's
On the Bubble: Dayton
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5
Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
Southern Miss is now done after getting routed by Louisiana Tech today. Even as the the winner, Louisiana Tech would be better off taking care of business tomorrow. I am really worried about keeping BYU as a lock, but I don't want to demote a lock.
Tickets Punched: Harvard, Mercer, Coastal Carolina, Delaware, Wichita St., Manhattan, Eastern Kentucky, Wofford, Milwaukee, Mount St. Mary's, North Dakota St., Gonzaga, American
Locks: BYU, Wichita St., Gonzaga
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Louisiana Tech
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