Here are our final projections for 2017.
1 Seeds: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke
2 Seeds: North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky, Oregon
3 Seeds: UCLA, Florida St., Baylor, Louisville
4 Seeds: Florida, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Virginia
5 Seeds: Iowa St., Purdue, Butler, SMU
6 Seeds: Cincinnati, Arkansas, Creighton, Wisconsin
7 Seeds: Minnesota, St. Mary's, Maryland, Michigan
8 Seeds: Miami, Oklahoma St., Wichita St., Virginia Tech
9 Seeds: VCU, Dayton, Vanderbilt, South Carolina
10 Seeds: MTSU, Northwestern, Wake Forest, Xavier
11 Seeds: Seton Hall, Michigan St., Rhode Island, Providence/USC
12 Seeds: Kansas St./Marquette, UNC-Wilmington, Nevada, Princeton
13 Seeds: Vermont, ETSU, Bucknell, New Mexico St.
14 Seeds: Winthrop, Northern Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, Iona
15 Seeds: Texas Southern, Jacksonville St., North Dakota, Kent St.
16 Seeds: South Dakota St., Mt. St. Mary's, New Orleans/Troy, UC-Davis./NC Central
Last Four Byes:
Wake Forest
Xavier
Seton Hall
Michigan St.
Last Four In:
Providence
USC
Kansas St.
Marquette
First Four Out:
Illinois St.
Syracuse
UT-Arlington
California
Next Four Out:
Clemson
Houston
Georgia
TCU
Bids by Conference:
ACC- 9
Big Ten- 7
Big East- 7
Big 12- 6
SEC- 5
Pac-12- 4
Atlantic 10- 3
American- 2
WCC- 2
Sunday, March 12, 2017
Bracketology- March 12, 2017: Duke a 1-Seed, Marquette In, Illinois St. Out
**This bracket differs from the last one Saturday night due to resume re-evaluation. It is up-to-date as of 2:30 PM CT.**
1 Seeds: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke
2 Seeds: North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky, Oregon
3 Seeds: UCLA, Florida St., Baylor, Louisville
4 Seeds: Florida, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Virginia
5 Seeds: Iowa St., Purdue, Butler, Cincinnati
6 Seeds: SMU, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Creighton
7 Seeds: Minnesota, St. Mary's, Maryland, Miami
8 Seeds: Oklahoma St., Michigan, Wichita St., Virginia Tech
9 Seeds: VCU, Dayton, Vanderbilt, South Carolina
10 Seeds: MTSU, Northwestern, Wake Forest, Xavier
11 Seeds: Seton Hall, Michigan St., Rhode Island, Providence/USC
12 Seeds: Kansas St./Marquette, UNC-Wilmington, Nevada, Princeton
13 Seeds: Vermont, ETSU, Bucknell, New Mexico St.
14 Seeds: Winthrop, Northern Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, Iona
15 Seeds: Texas Southern, Jacksonville St., North Dakota, Kent St.
16 Seeds: South Dakota St., Mt. St. Mary's, New Orleans/UC-Davis, Texas St./NC Central
Last Four Byes:
Wake Forest
Xavier
Seton Hall
Michigan St.
Last Four In:
Providence
USC
Kansas St.
Marquette
First Four Out:
Illinois St.
Syracuse
UT-Arlington
California
Next Four Out:
Clemson
Houston
Georgia
TCU
Bids by Conference:
ACC- 9
Big Ten- 7
Big East- 7
Big 12- 6
SEC- 5
Pac-12- 4
Atlantic 10- 3
American- 2
WCC- 2
1 Seeds: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Duke
2 Seeds: North Carolina, Arizona, Kentucky, Oregon
3 Seeds: UCLA, Florida St., Baylor, Louisville
4 Seeds: Florida, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Virginia
5 Seeds: Iowa St., Purdue, Butler, Cincinnati
6 Seeds: SMU, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Creighton
7 Seeds: Minnesota, St. Mary's, Maryland, Miami
8 Seeds: Oklahoma St., Michigan, Wichita St., Virginia Tech
9 Seeds: VCU, Dayton, Vanderbilt, South Carolina
10 Seeds: MTSU, Northwestern, Wake Forest, Xavier
11 Seeds: Seton Hall, Michigan St., Rhode Island, Providence/USC
12 Seeds: Kansas St./Marquette, UNC-Wilmington, Nevada, Princeton
13 Seeds: Vermont, ETSU, Bucknell, New Mexico St.
14 Seeds: Winthrop, Northern Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, Iona
15 Seeds: Texas Southern, Jacksonville St., North Dakota, Kent St.
16 Seeds: South Dakota St., Mt. St. Mary's, New Orleans/UC-Davis, Texas St./NC Central
Last Four Byes:
Wake Forest
Xavier
Seton Hall
Michigan St.
Last Four In:
Providence
USC
Kansas St.
Marquette
First Four Out:
Illinois St.
Syracuse
UT-Arlington
California
Next Four Out:
Clemson
Houston
Georgia
TCU
Bids by Conference:
ACC- 9
Big Ten- 7
Big East- 7
Big 12- 6
SEC- 5
Pac-12- 4
Atlantic 10- 3
American- 2
WCC- 2
Saturday, March 11, 2017
Bubble Watch- March 11, 2017: Only Syracuse, Marquette, Rhode Island, Illinois St. Remain on the Bubble
**This is updated as of the end of Saturday's bubble action.**
At this point, we view the bubble as being very narrow. Only four teams (Illinois St., Syracuse, Marquette, and Rhode Island) are listed as being on the bubble. Two of them will get in, and two of them won't. There are also no remaining potential bid thieves, unless you count the possibility for Rhode Island to take matters into their own hands.
SEC:
Alabama gave it a good run against Kentucky, but they will head to the NIT after coming up five points short. All indications are that the SEC will get five bids this year, a major improvement from just three (one of which lost in the First Four) last year.
Locks (5): Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Georgia
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
ACC:
Georgia Tech needed to beat Pitt. They didn't, so they are completely done. Clemson did get one win, but that likely will not be enough following their loss to Duke on Wednesday. I will leave them at "Probably Out", but it would take a miracle for the football champions to have a chance to add a basketball championship. Syracuse, meanwhile, is at the mercy of everyone else who is still playing. We will have a better feel on them by Saturday.
Locks (9): North Carolina, Duke (auto-bid), Louisville, Florida St., Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Clemson
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big 12:
Kansas St. is certainly in much better shape following their win over Baylor. They are not 100% safe due to the suddenly strengthening bubble, but they have a great shot, even after falling to West Virginia. After a shocking upset of Kansas, TCU was briefly back in the conversation. They gave it a good run, but they will be heading to the NIT in Jamie Dixon's first year.
Locks (5): Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St. (auto-bid), Oklahoma St.
Probably In (1): Kansas St.
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): TCU
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big Ten:
Indiana made it interesting, but they are not going to make the NCAA Tournament following a loss to Wisconsin today in the quarterfinals. Also, now that Michigan St. has avoided the disaster against Penn St. and Northwestern against Rutgers, I will finally make the moves on them. Congratulations, Northwestern, for the first time, you are going to the NCAA Tournament!
Locks (7): Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Pac-12:
Cal is not done, but "Probably Out" would be a good way to describe their position after losing to Oregon Friday. They did win two games in Las Vegas, but they were not able to pick up a marquee win. USC should be fine, but they still need to root against potential bid thieves. I am not 100% sure in my calls for either, but it seems likely that USC is in and Cal out.
Locks (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Probably In (1): USC
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Cal
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big East:
With much of the craziness having subsided, Xavier and Seton Hall are now locks to make the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Providence is highly likely to join them as well, and Marquette has a strong case to make it seven.
Locks (5): Villanova (auto-bid), Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, Xavier
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (1): Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
American:
The American is very weak this year. Cincinnati and SMU are all this league really has to offer in 2017. Houston lost to UConn Friday, and it would take a miracle for them to make it. The weakness of leagues like the American, A-10, and MWC explains why we are seeing teams with RPIs in the 80s and 90s, ones with barely over .500 records, and squads with conference records as bad as 6-12 in the thick of bubble contention. Additionally, now that the championship is set as SMU vs. Cincinnati, bubble teams do not have to worry about a bid thief coming out of the AAC.
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Houston
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Missouri Valley:
Wichita St. made things simple by locking up the auto-bid in Arch Madness. As for Illinois St., it really could go either way, and that will largely depend on how the other bubble teams (the ones still playing this week) fare.
Locks (1): Wichita St. (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Illinois St.
Probably Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will almost certainly be a one-bid league this year, and that will be Nevada after winning in Vegas to avoid the at-large discussion. Colorado St. likely has a NIT bid waiting for it as well.
Auto-Bid: Nevada
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Atlantic-10:
Rhode Island will try to completely leave the bubble behind tomorrow when they face VCU for the Atlantic-10 Championship and the auto-bid. Should they lose, it will be very close. My guess is that they would make it, but it could go either way.
Locks (2): Dayton, VCU
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Rhode Island
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
West Coast:
Now that we know that Gonzaga and St. Mary's will play tonight in the WCC title game, there is nothing more to watch (for bubble purposes, that is) in the WCC. Gonzaga and St. Mary's will go to the Big Dance, while BYU will hope for a NIT selection.
Locks (2): Gonzaga (auto-bid), St. Mary's
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Other Contenders:
MTSU is likely the only team in any other conference that could have earned an at-large bid had they failed to win the C-USA Tournament. The Blue Raiders, however, took care of business and will not take some poor bubble team's spot in the field. UT-Arlington is now very much a long-shot, especially since they lost to Texas St., who has a RPI around 200. Their own RPI is very solid, and they have a nice win over St. Mary's, but there is not a whole lot more on that resume. Princeton will not get an at-large and needs to beat Yale tomorrow to make the NCAA Tournament.
Significant Auto-Bids: UNC-Wilmington, Florida Gulf Coast, ETSU, Bucknell, Vermont, MTSU
Locks (1): MTSU (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): UT-Arlington
Totals:
Locks: 42
Probably In: 3
Bubble: 4 (for 2 spots)
Probably Out: 6
At this point, we view the bubble as being very narrow. Only four teams (Illinois St., Syracuse, Marquette, and Rhode Island) are listed as being on the bubble. Two of them will get in, and two of them won't. There are also no remaining potential bid thieves, unless you count the possibility for Rhode Island to take matters into their own hands.
SEC:
Alabama gave it a good run against Kentucky, but they will head to the NIT after coming up five points short. All indications are that the SEC will get five bids this year, a major improvement from just three (one of which lost in the First Four) last year.
Locks (5): Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Georgia
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
ACC:
Georgia Tech needed to beat Pitt. They didn't, so they are completely done. Clemson did get one win, but that likely will not be enough following their loss to Duke on Wednesday. I will leave them at "Probably Out", but it would take a miracle for the football champions to have a chance to add a basketball championship. Syracuse, meanwhile, is at the mercy of everyone else who is still playing. We will have a better feel on them by Saturday.
Locks (9): North Carolina, Duke (auto-bid), Louisville, Florida St., Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Clemson
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big 12:
Kansas St. is certainly in much better shape following their win over Baylor. They are not 100% safe due to the suddenly strengthening bubble, but they have a great shot, even after falling to West Virginia. After a shocking upset of Kansas, TCU was briefly back in the conversation. They gave it a good run, but they will be heading to the NIT in Jamie Dixon's first year.
Locks (5): Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St. (auto-bid), Oklahoma St.
Probably In (1): Kansas St.
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): TCU
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big Ten:
Indiana made it interesting, but they are not going to make the NCAA Tournament following a loss to Wisconsin today in the quarterfinals. Also, now that Michigan St. has avoided the disaster against Penn St. and Northwestern against Rutgers, I will finally make the moves on them. Congratulations, Northwestern, for the first time, you are going to the NCAA Tournament!
Locks (7): Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Pac-12:
Cal is not done, but "Probably Out" would be a good way to describe their position after losing to Oregon Friday. They did win two games in Las Vegas, but they were not able to pick up a marquee win. USC should be fine, but they still need to root against potential bid thieves. I am not 100% sure in my calls for either, but it seems likely that USC is in and Cal out.
Locks (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Probably In (1): USC
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Cal
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big East:
With much of the craziness having subsided, Xavier and Seton Hall are now locks to make the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Providence is highly likely to join them as well, and Marquette has a strong case to make it seven.
Locks (5): Villanova (auto-bid), Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, Xavier
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (1): Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
American:
The American is very weak this year. Cincinnati and SMU are all this league really has to offer in 2017. Houston lost to UConn Friday, and it would take a miracle for them to make it. The weakness of leagues like the American, A-10, and MWC explains why we are seeing teams with RPIs in the 80s and 90s, ones with barely over .500 records, and squads with conference records as bad as 6-12 in the thick of bubble contention. Additionally, now that the championship is set as SMU vs. Cincinnati, bubble teams do not have to worry about a bid thief coming out of the AAC.
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Houston
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Missouri Valley:
Wichita St. made things simple by locking up the auto-bid in Arch Madness. As for Illinois St., it really could go either way, and that will largely depend on how the other bubble teams (the ones still playing this week) fare.
Locks (1): Wichita St. (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Illinois St.
Probably Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will almost certainly be a one-bid league this year, and that will be Nevada after winning in Vegas to avoid the at-large discussion. Colorado St. likely has a NIT bid waiting for it as well.
Auto-Bid: Nevada
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Atlantic-10:
Rhode Island will try to completely leave the bubble behind tomorrow when they face VCU for the Atlantic-10 Championship and the auto-bid. Should they lose, it will be very close. My guess is that they would make it, but it could go either way.
Locks (2): Dayton, VCU
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Rhode Island
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
West Coast:
Now that we know that Gonzaga and St. Mary's will play tonight in the WCC title game, there is nothing more to watch (for bubble purposes, that is) in the WCC. Gonzaga and St. Mary's will go to the Big Dance, while BYU will hope for a NIT selection.
Locks (2): Gonzaga (auto-bid), St. Mary's
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Other Contenders:
MTSU is likely the only team in any other conference that could have earned an at-large bid had they failed to win the C-USA Tournament. The Blue Raiders, however, took care of business and will not take some poor bubble team's spot in the field. UT-Arlington is now very much a long-shot, especially since they lost to Texas St., who has a RPI around 200. Their own RPI is very solid, and they have a nice win over St. Mary's, but there is not a whole lot more on that resume. Princeton will not get an at-large and needs to beat Yale tomorrow to make the NCAA Tournament.
Significant Auto-Bids: UNC-Wilmington, Florida Gulf Coast, ETSU, Bucknell, Vermont, MTSU
Locks (1): MTSU (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): UT-Arlington
Totals:
Locks: 42
Probably In: 3
Bubble: 4 (for 2 spots)
Probably Out: 6
Bracketology- March 11, 2017: UT-Arlington Among First Four Out Following Loss
1 Seeds: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, Oregon
3 Seeds: UCLA, Florida St., Baylor, Louisville
4 Seeds: Florida, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Virginia
5 Seeds: Iowa St., SMU, Purdue, Butler
6 Seeds: Cincinnati, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Minnesota
7 Seeds: St. Mary's, Creighton, Maryland, Wichita St.
8 Seeds: Oklahoma St., Michigan, Miami, VCU
9 Seeds: Virginia Tech, Dayton, MTSU, South Carolina
10 Seeds: Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Seton Hall
11 Seeds: Xavier, Michigan St., USC, Kansas St./Providence
12 Seeds: Illinois St./Rhode Island, Nevada, UNC-Wilmington, Princeton
13 Seeds: Vermont, Bucknell, ETSU, Winthrop
14 Seeds: Florida Gulf Coast, New Mexico St., Iona, North Dakota
15 Seeds: NC Central, Texas Southern, Northern Kentucky, Jacksonville St.
16 Seeds: Kent St., Texas St., South Dakota St./Mt. St. Mary's, UC-Davis/New Orleans
Last Four Byes:
Seton Hall
Xavier
Michigan St.
USC
Last Four In:
Kansas St.
Providence
Illinois St.
Rhode Island
First Four Out:
Syracuse
Marquette
UT-Arlington
California
Next Four Out:
Clemson
Houston
Georgia
TCU
Bids by Conference:
ACC- 9
Big Ten- 7
Big East- 6
Big 12- 6
SEC- 5
Pac-12- 4
Atlantic 10- 3
American- 2
WCC- 2
MVC- 2
Friday, March 10, 2017
Bubble Watch- March 10, 2017: Georgia Clearly Out
**This will update live for the rest of the day. It is updated as of the end of Friday's bubble action.
SEC:
Georgia's at-large hopes are very slim after bowing out in the SEC quarterfinals against Kentucky. Vanderbilt will make it regardless, but a win over Florida would ensure that the Commodores will avoid the First Four, where they went (and lost) last year.
Locks (5): Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Georgia
Alive Bid Thieves (1): Alabama
ACC:
Georgia Tech needed to beat Pitt. They didn't, so they are completely done. Clemson did get one win, but that likely will not be enough following their loss to Duke on Wednesday. I will leave them at "Probably Out", but it would take a miracle for the football champions to have a chance to add a basketball championship. Syracuse, meanwhile, is at the mercy of everyone else who is still playing. We will have a better feel on them by Saturday.
Locks (9): North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Clemson
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big 12:
Kansas St. is certainly in much better shape following their win over Baylor. They are not 100% safe due to the suddenly strengthening bubble, but they have a great shot, even after falling to West Virginia. After a shocking upset of Kansas, TCU is back in the conversation. TCU gave it a good run, but they will be heading to the NIT in Jamie Dixon's first year.
Locks (5): Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In (1): Kansas St.
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): TCU
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big Ten:
Indiana made it interesting, but they are not going to make the NCAA Tournament following a loss to Wisconsin today in the quarterfinals. Also, now that Michigan St. has avoided the disaster against Penn St. and Northwestern against Rutgers, I will finally make the moves on them. Congratulations, Northwestern, for the first time, you are going to the NCAA Tournament!
Locks (7): Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Iowa
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Pac-12:
Cal is not done, but "Probably Out" would be a good way to describe their position after losing to Oregon today. They did win two games in Las Vegas, but they were not able to pick up a marquee win. USC should be fine, but they still need to root against potential bid thieves. I am not 100% sure in my calls for either, but it seems likely that USC is in and Cal out.
Locks (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Probably In (1): USC
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Cal
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big East:
With much of the craziness having subsided, Xavier and Seton Hall are now locks to make the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Providence is highly likely to join them as well, and Marquette has a strong case to make it seven.
Locks (5): Villanova, Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, Xavier
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (1): Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
American:
The American is very weak this year. Cincinnati and SMU are all this league really has to offer in 2017. Houston lost to UConn today, and it would take a miracle for them to make it. The weakness of leagues like the American, A-10, and MWC explains why we are seeing teams with RPIs in the 80s and 90s, ones with barely over .500 records, and squads with conference records as bad as 6-12 in the thick of bubble contention.
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Houston
Alive Bid Thieves (2): UCF, Connecticut
Missouri Valley:
Wichita St. made things simple by locking up the auto-bid in Arch Madness. As for Illinois St., it really could go either way, and that will largely depend on how the other bubble teams (the ones still playing this week) fare.
Locks (1): Wichita St. (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Illinois St.
Probably Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will almost certainly be a one-bid league this year. Nevada's bubble case isn't totally non-existent, but it can make this simple by winning the MWC Tournament this week. But, they are still more likely out than in if they lose in Las Vegas.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Nevada
Alive Bid Thieves (3): Everyone still alive not named Nevada
Atlantic-10:
As we speak, Rhode Island is facing 5th seeded St. Bonaventure. Winning this game alone is probably not enough (but losing it would be a disaster), but a potential win over Dayton on Saturday could change everything for Rhode Island. Bubble teams should also be on high alert for a bid thief out of the A-10 this year, and Davidson made that much more of a reality by knocking off Dayton Friday morning.
Locks (2): Dayton, VCU
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Rhode Island
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (2): Davidson, Richmond
West Coast:
Now that we know that Gonzaga and St. Mary's will play tonight in the WCC title game, there is nothing more to watch (for bubble purposes, that is) in the WCC. Gonzaga and St. Mary's will go to the Big Dance, while BYU will hope for a NIT selection.
Locks (2): Gonzaga (auto-bid), St. Mary's
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Other Contenders:
UNC-Wilmington did what minor conference teams often have to do- win their conference tournament, instead of leaving it up to the committee. Monmouth, on the other hand, did not get that job done, and it is hard to see how they will get an at-large bid. We now wait on MTSU, UT-Arlington, and Princeton's conference tournaments (also, it would be a shame if Vermont loses in the America East championship).
Significant Auto-Bids: UNC-Wilmington, Florida Gulf Coast, ETSU, Bucknell
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): MTSU
Bubble (1): UT-Arlington
Probably Out (2): Monmouth, Princeton
Totals:
Locks: 41
Probably In: 4
Bubble: 5 (for 2 at-large spots)
Probably Out: 9
SEC:
Georgia's at-large hopes are very slim after bowing out in the SEC quarterfinals against Kentucky. Vanderbilt will make it regardless, but a win over Florida would ensure that the Commodores will avoid the First Four, where they went (and lost) last year.
Locks (5): Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Georgia
Alive Bid Thieves (1): Alabama
ACC:
Georgia Tech needed to beat Pitt. They didn't, so they are completely done. Clemson did get one win, but that likely will not be enough following their loss to Duke on Wednesday. I will leave them at "Probably Out", but it would take a miracle for the football champions to have a chance to add a basketball championship. Syracuse, meanwhile, is at the mercy of everyone else who is still playing. We will have a better feel on them by Saturday.
Locks (9): North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Clemson
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big 12:
Kansas St. is certainly in much better shape following their win over Baylor. They are not 100% safe due to the suddenly strengthening bubble, but they have a great shot, even after falling to West Virginia. After a shocking upset of Kansas, TCU is back in the conversation. TCU gave it a good run, but they will be heading to the NIT in Jamie Dixon's first year.
Locks (5): Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In (1): Kansas St.
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): TCU
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big Ten:
Indiana made it interesting, but they are not going to make the NCAA Tournament following a loss to Wisconsin today in the quarterfinals. Also, now that Michigan St. has avoided the disaster against Penn St. and Northwestern against Rutgers, I will finally make the moves on them. Congratulations, Northwestern, for the first time, you are going to the NCAA Tournament!
Locks (7): Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Iowa
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Pac-12:
Cal is not done, but "Probably Out" would be a good way to describe their position after losing to Oregon today. They did win two games in Las Vegas, but they were not able to pick up a marquee win. USC should be fine, but they still need to root against potential bid thieves. I am not 100% sure in my calls for either, but it seems likely that USC is in and Cal out.
Locks (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Probably In (1): USC
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Cal
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big East:
With much of the craziness having subsided, Xavier and Seton Hall are now locks to make the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Providence is highly likely to join them as well, and Marquette has a strong case to make it seven.
Locks (5): Villanova, Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, Xavier
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (1): Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
American:
The American is very weak this year. Cincinnati and SMU are all this league really has to offer in 2017. Houston lost to UConn today, and it would take a miracle for them to make it. The weakness of leagues like the American, A-10, and MWC explains why we are seeing teams with RPIs in the 80s and 90s, ones with barely over .500 records, and squads with conference records as bad as 6-12 in the thick of bubble contention.
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Houston
Alive Bid Thieves (2): UCF, Connecticut
Missouri Valley:
Wichita St. made things simple by locking up the auto-bid in Arch Madness. As for Illinois St., it really could go either way, and that will largely depend on how the other bubble teams (the ones still playing this week) fare.
Locks (1): Wichita St. (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Illinois St.
Probably Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will almost certainly be a one-bid league this year. Nevada's bubble case isn't totally non-existent, but it can make this simple by winning the MWC Tournament this week. But, they are still more likely out than in if they lose in Las Vegas.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Nevada
Alive Bid Thieves (3): Everyone still alive not named Nevada
Atlantic-10:
As we speak, Rhode Island is facing 5th seeded St. Bonaventure. Winning this game alone is probably not enough (but losing it would be a disaster), but a potential win over Dayton on Saturday could change everything for Rhode Island. Bubble teams should also be on high alert for a bid thief out of the A-10 this year, and Davidson made that much more of a reality by knocking off Dayton Friday morning.
Locks (2): Dayton, VCU
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Rhode Island
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (2): Davidson, Richmond
West Coast:
Now that we know that Gonzaga and St. Mary's will play tonight in the WCC title game, there is nothing more to watch (for bubble purposes, that is) in the WCC. Gonzaga and St. Mary's will go to the Big Dance, while BYU will hope for a NIT selection.
Locks (2): Gonzaga (auto-bid), St. Mary's
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Other Contenders:
UNC-Wilmington did what minor conference teams often have to do- win their conference tournament, instead of leaving it up to the committee. Monmouth, on the other hand, did not get that job done, and it is hard to see how they will get an at-large bid. We now wait on MTSU, UT-Arlington, and Princeton's conference tournaments (also, it would be a shame if Vermont loses in the America East championship).
Significant Auto-Bids: UNC-Wilmington, Florida Gulf Coast, ETSU, Bucknell
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): MTSU
Bubble (1): UT-Arlington
Probably Out (2): Monmouth, Princeton
Totals:
Locks: 41
Probably In: 4
Bubble: 5 (for 2 at-large spots)
Probably Out: 9
Bracketology- March 10, 2017: Rhode Island In, Syracuse Out
**This bracket will be updated live as results come in during the course of the day Friday. Currently, it is up to date as of 11:55 PM ET.**
1 Seeds: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Oregon, Duke, Arizona
3 Seeds: UCLA, Florida St. Baylor, Louisville
4 Seeds: Florida, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Virginia
5 Seeds: SMU, Purdue, Butler, Iowa St.
6 Seeds: Cincinnati, Minnesota, St. Mary's, Arkansas
7 Seeds: Creighton, Maryland, Wichita St., Wisconsin
8 Seeds: Oklahoma St., Miami, Michigan, VCU
9 Seeds: Virginia Tech, Dayton, MTSU, Vanderbilt
10 Seeds: Northwestern, South Carolina, Wake Forest, Seton Hall
11 Seeds: Xavier, Michigan St., USC, Kansas St./Illinois St.
12 Seeds: UT-Arlington, Providence/Rhode Island, Nevada, UNC-Wilmington
13 Seeds: Princeton, Vermont, Akron, Bucknell
14 Seeds: ETSU, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal St. Bakersfield
15 Seeds: Iona, North Dakota, NC Central, Texas Southern
16 Seeds: Northern Kentucky, Jacksonville St., South Dakota St./Mt. St. Mary's, UC-Davis/New Orleans
Last Four Byes:
Xavier
Seton Hall
Michigan St.
USC
Last Four In:
Kansas St.
Illinois St.
Providence
Rhode Island
First Four Out:
Syracuse
Marquette
California
Clemson
Next Four Out:
Houston
Georgia
TCU
Iowa
Also in Contention:
Ole Miss
Illinois
Alabama
Bids by Conference:
ACC- 9
Big Ten- 7
Big East- 6
Big 12- 6
SEC- 5
Pac-12- 4
Atlantic 10- 3
American- 2
WCC- 2
MVC- 2
1 Seeds: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Oregon, Duke, Arizona
3 Seeds: UCLA, Florida St. Baylor, Louisville
4 Seeds: Florida, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Virginia
5 Seeds: SMU, Purdue, Butler, Iowa St.
6 Seeds: Cincinnati, Minnesota, St. Mary's, Arkansas
7 Seeds: Creighton, Maryland, Wichita St., Wisconsin
8 Seeds: Oklahoma St., Miami, Michigan, VCU
9 Seeds: Virginia Tech, Dayton, MTSU, Vanderbilt
10 Seeds: Northwestern, South Carolina, Wake Forest, Seton Hall
11 Seeds: Xavier, Michigan St., USC, Kansas St./Illinois St.
12 Seeds: UT-Arlington, Providence/Rhode Island, Nevada, UNC-Wilmington
13 Seeds: Princeton, Vermont, Akron, Bucknell
14 Seeds: ETSU, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal St. Bakersfield
15 Seeds: Iona, North Dakota, NC Central, Texas Southern
16 Seeds: Northern Kentucky, Jacksonville St., South Dakota St./Mt. St. Mary's, UC-Davis/New Orleans
Last Four Byes:
Xavier
Seton Hall
Michigan St.
USC
Last Four In:
Kansas St.
Illinois St.
Providence
Rhode Island
First Four Out:
Syracuse
Marquette
California
Clemson
Next Four Out:
Houston
Georgia
TCU
Iowa
Also in Contention:
Ole Miss
Illinois
Alabama
Bids by Conference:
ACC- 9
Big Ten- 7
Big East- 6
Big 12- 6
SEC- 5
Pac-12- 4
Atlantic 10- 3
American- 2
WCC- 2
MVC- 2
Thursday, March 9, 2017
Bubble Watch- March 9, 2017
**This will update live for the rest of the night. It is updated as of 12:00 AM ET.
SEC:
South Carolina is a lock ahead of their game tomorrow by virtue of playing Alabama, which would not be a bad loss. We were extra careful after the Gamecocks' late-season collapse to fall to the NIT last year, but that will not happen again. South Carolina is dancing. So is Vanderbilt, who dominated Texas A&M by 25 points today despite not even shooting all that well. A loss to Florida would do nothing to hurt a strong at-large resume, especially since the 'Dores have already beaten the Gators twice. Georgia, meanwhile, may be playing for their lives tomorrow against Kentucky.
Locks (5): Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Georgia
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (2): Alabama, Ole Miss
ACC:
Georgia Tech needed to beat Pitt. They didn't, so they are completely done. Clemson did get one win, but that likely will not be enough following their loss to Duke yesterday. I will leave them at "Probably Out", but it would take a miracle for the football champions to have a chance to add a basketball championship. Syracuse, meanwhile, is at the mercy of everyone else who is still playing. We will have a better feel on them by Saturday.
Locks (9): North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Clemson
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big 12:
Kansas St. is certainly in much better shape following their win over Baylor. They are not 100% safe due to the suddenly strengthening bubble, but they have a shot and will definitely make it with a win over West Virginia tomorrow. After a shocking upset of Kansas, TCU is back in the conversation. The question is if simply a win tomorrow against Iowa St. would be enough for the Horned Frogs or if they need to win the whole Big 12 Tournament. I lean towards the latter, but it would be an interesting conversation.
Locks (5): Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In (1): Kansas St.
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): TCU
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big Ten:
It's time to take Indiana seriously. Illinois and Iowa were not able to get the necessary wins to stay in realistic bubble contention, but Indiana was (against Iowa). Indiana will take on Wisconsin tomorrow in the quarterfinals. A run to the finals would likely be enough for the Hoosiers to salvage a trip to Dayton out of a disappointing season. Also, now that Michigan St. has avoided the disaster against Penn St. and Northwestern against Rutgers, I will finally make the moves on them. Congratulations, Northwestern, for the first time, you are going to the NCAA Tournament!
Locks (7): Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Indiana, Iowa
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Pac-12:
Cal just keeps hanging around, avoiding the horrible loss to Oregon St. yesterday and then picking up an OK win over Utah today. But, tomorrow is when the Golden Bears will really have a chance, as they take on Oregon. For USC, a win over UCLA would seal up an at-large bid. With a loss, I would guess they would still make it, but it would be far from certain.
Locks (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Probably In (1): USC
Bubble (1): Cal
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big East:
Xavier just picked up a massive win with a victory over Butler. I will only bump them to "Probably In" for now because of how many bubble teams are picking up big wins right now. Seton Hall is also closing in on lock status. Providence and Marquette are currently on the right side of the bubble, but not quite as safe as the other two. They are both watching from home now and having to root against fellow bubble teams.
Locks (3): Villanova, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (2): Xavier, Seton Hall
Bubble (2): Providence, Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
American:
The American is very weak this year. Cincinnati and SMU are all this league really has to offer in 2017. Houston is not completely out of at-large contention, but the weakness of leagues like the American, A-10, and MWC explains why we are seeing teams with RPIs in the 80s and 90s, ones with barely over .500 records, and squads with conference records as bad as 6-12 in the thick of bubble contention.
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Houston
Alive Bid Thieves (5): East Carolina, UCF, Memphis, Tulsa, Connecticut
Missouri Valley:
Wichita St. made things simple by locking up the auto-bid in Arch Madness. As for Illinois St., it really could go either way, and that will largely depend on how the other bubble teams (the ones still playing this week) fare.
Locks (1): Wichita St. (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Illinois St.
Probably Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will almost certainly be a one-bid league this year. Nevada's bubble case isn't totally non-existent, but it can make this simple by winning the MWC Tournament this week. But, they are still more likely out than in if they lose in Las Vegas.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Nevada
Alive Bid Thieves (4): Everyone still alive not named Nevada
Atlantic-10:
Tomorrow, Rhode Island will face 5th seeded St. Bonaventure. Winning that game alone is probably not enough (but losing it would be a disaster), but a potential win over Dayton on Saturday could change everything for Rhode Island. Bubble teams should also be on high alert for a bid thief out of the A-10 this year.
Locks (2): Dayton, VCU
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Rhode Island
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (5): Davidson, St. Bonaventure, George Mason, Richmond, George Washington
West Coast:
Now that we know that Gonzaga and St. Mary's will play tonight in the WCC title game, there is nothing more to watch (for bubble purposes, that is) in the WCC. Gonzaga and St. Mary's will go to the Big Dance, while BYU will hope for a NIT selection.
Locks (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Other Contenders:
UNC-Wilmington did what minor conference teams often have to do- win their conference tournament, instead of leaving it up to the committee. Monmouth, on the other hand, did not get that job done, and it is hard to see how they will get an at-large bid. We now wait on MTSU, UT-Arlington, and Princeton's conference tournaments (also, it would be a shame if Vermont loses in the America East championship).
Significant Auto-Bids: UNC-Wilmington, Florida Gulf Coast, ETSU, Bucknell
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): MTSU
Bubble (1): UT-Arlington
Probably Out (2): Monmouth, Princeton
Totals:
Locks: 39
Probably In: 5
Bubble: 8 (for 3 at-large spots)
Probably Out: 8
SEC:
South Carolina is a lock ahead of their game tomorrow by virtue of playing Alabama, which would not be a bad loss. We were extra careful after the Gamecocks' late-season collapse to fall to the NIT last year, but that will not happen again. South Carolina is dancing. So is Vanderbilt, who dominated Texas A&M by 25 points today despite not even shooting all that well. A loss to Florida would do nothing to hurt a strong at-large resume, especially since the 'Dores have already beaten the Gators twice. Georgia, meanwhile, may be playing for their lives tomorrow against Kentucky.
Locks (5): Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Georgia
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (2): Alabama, Ole Miss
ACC:
Georgia Tech needed to beat Pitt. They didn't, so they are completely done. Clemson did get one win, but that likely will not be enough following their loss to Duke yesterday. I will leave them at "Probably Out", but it would take a miracle for the football champions to have a chance to add a basketball championship. Syracuse, meanwhile, is at the mercy of everyone else who is still playing. We will have a better feel on them by Saturday.
Locks (9): North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Clemson
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big 12:
Kansas St. is certainly in much better shape following their win over Baylor. They are not 100% safe due to the suddenly strengthening bubble, but they have a shot and will definitely make it with a win over West Virginia tomorrow. After a shocking upset of Kansas, TCU is back in the conversation. The question is if simply a win tomorrow against Iowa St. would be enough for the Horned Frogs or if they need to win the whole Big 12 Tournament. I lean towards the latter, but it would be an interesting conversation.
Locks (5): Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In (1): Kansas St.
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): TCU
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big Ten:
It's time to take Indiana seriously. Illinois and Iowa were not able to get the necessary wins to stay in realistic bubble contention, but Indiana was (against Iowa). Indiana will take on Wisconsin tomorrow in the quarterfinals. A run to the finals would likely be enough for the Hoosiers to salvage a trip to Dayton out of a disappointing season. Also, now that Michigan St. has avoided the disaster against Penn St. and Northwestern against Rutgers, I will finally make the moves on them. Congratulations, Northwestern, for the first time, you are going to the NCAA Tournament!
Locks (7): Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Indiana, Iowa
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Pac-12:
Cal just keeps hanging around, avoiding the horrible loss to Oregon St. yesterday and then picking up an OK win over Utah today. But, tomorrow is when the Golden Bears will really have a chance, as they take on Oregon. For USC, a win over UCLA would seal up an at-large bid. With a loss, I would guess they would still make it, but it would be far from certain.
Locks (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Probably In (1): USC
Bubble (1): Cal
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big East:
Xavier just picked up a massive win with a victory over Butler. I will only bump them to "Probably In" for now because of how many bubble teams are picking up big wins right now. Seton Hall is also closing in on lock status. Providence and Marquette are currently on the right side of the bubble, but not quite as safe as the other two. They are both watching from home now and having to root against fellow bubble teams.
Locks (3): Villanova, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (2): Xavier, Seton Hall
Bubble (2): Providence, Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
American:
The American is very weak this year. Cincinnati and SMU are all this league really has to offer in 2017. Houston is not completely out of at-large contention, but the weakness of leagues like the American, A-10, and MWC explains why we are seeing teams with RPIs in the 80s and 90s, ones with barely over .500 records, and squads with conference records as bad as 6-12 in the thick of bubble contention.
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Houston
Alive Bid Thieves (5): East Carolina, UCF, Memphis, Tulsa, Connecticut
Missouri Valley:
Wichita St. made things simple by locking up the auto-bid in Arch Madness. As for Illinois St., it really could go either way, and that will largely depend on how the other bubble teams (the ones still playing this week) fare.
Locks (1): Wichita St. (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Illinois St.
Probably Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will almost certainly be a one-bid league this year. Nevada's bubble case isn't totally non-existent, but it can make this simple by winning the MWC Tournament this week. But, they are still more likely out than in if they lose in Las Vegas.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Nevada
Alive Bid Thieves (4): Everyone still alive not named Nevada
Atlantic-10:
Tomorrow, Rhode Island will face 5th seeded St. Bonaventure. Winning that game alone is probably not enough (but losing it would be a disaster), but a potential win over Dayton on Saturday could change everything for Rhode Island. Bubble teams should also be on high alert for a bid thief out of the A-10 this year.
Locks (2): Dayton, VCU
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Rhode Island
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (5): Davidson, St. Bonaventure, George Mason, Richmond, George Washington
West Coast:
Now that we know that Gonzaga and St. Mary's will play tonight in the WCC title game, there is nothing more to watch (for bubble purposes, that is) in the WCC. Gonzaga and St. Mary's will go to the Big Dance, while BYU will hope for a NIT selection.
Locks (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Other Contenders:
UNC-Wilmington did what minor conference teams often have to do- win their conference tournament, instead of leaving it up to the committee. Monmouth, on the other hand, did not get that job done, and it is hard to see how they will get an at-large bid. We now wait on MTSU, UT-Arlington, and Princeton's conference tournaments (also, it would be a shame if Vermont loses in the America East championship).
Significant Auto-Bids: UNC-Wilmington, Florida Gulf Coast, ETSU, Bucknell
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): MTSU
Bubble (1): UT-Arlington
Probably Out (2): Monmouth, Princeton
Totals:
Locks: 39
Probably In: 5
Bubble: 8 (for 3 at-large spots)
Probably Out: 8
Bracketology- March 9, 2017: Kansas St. Replaces Marquette in the Field of 68
**This bracket will be updated live as results come in during the course of the day Thursday. Currently, it is up to date as of the end of play Thursday.**
1 Seeds: Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas, Gonzaga
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Oregon, Arizona, Duke
3 Seeds: Florida, Florida St., UCLA, Baylor
4 Seeds: Louisville, West Virginia, Virginia, Purdue
5 Seeds: SMU, Notre Dame, Butler, Cincinnati
6 Seeds: Iowa St., Minnesota, St. Mary's, Maryland
7 Seeds: Arkansas, Wichita St., Creighton, Oklahoma St.
8 Seeds: Miami, Dayton, Wisconsin, VCU
9 Seeds: Virginia Tech, South Carolina, MTSU, Michigan
10 Seeds: Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Xavier
11 Seeds: Michigan St., Seton Hall, USC, UT-Arlington
12 Seeds: Kansas St./Illinois St., Providence/Syracuse, UNC-Wilmington, Nevada
13 Seeds: Princeton, Vermont, Akron, Bucknell
14 Seeds: ETSU, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal St. Bakersfield
15 Seeds: Iona, North Dakota, NC Central, Texas Southern
16 Seeds: Northern Kentucky, Jacksonville St., South Dakota St./Mt. St. Mary's, UC-Davis/New Orleans
Last Four Byes:
Xavier
Michigan St.
Seton Hall
USC
Last Four In:
Kansas St.
Illinois St.
Providence
Syracuse
First Four Out:
Marquette
Rhode Island
Georgia
California
Next Four Out:
Houston
TCU
Indiana
Clemson
Also in Contention:
Iowa
Ole Miss
Illinois
Alabama
Bids by Conference:
ACC- 10
Big Ten- 7
Big East- 6
Big 12- 6
SEC- 5
Pac-12- 4
Atlantic 10- 2
American- 2
WCC- 2
MVC- 2
1 Seeds: Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas, Gonzaga
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Oregon, Arizona, Duke
3 Seeds: Florida, Florida St., UCLA, Baylor
4 Seeds: Louisville, West Virginia, Virginia, Purdue
5 Seeds: SMU, Notre Dame, Butler, Cincinnati
6 Seeds: Iowa St., Minnesota, St. Mary's, Maryland
7 Seeds: Arkansas, Wichita St., Creighton, Oklahoma St.
8 Seeds: Miami, Dayton, Wisconsin, VCU
9 Seeds: Virginia Tech, South Carolina, MTSU, Michigan
10 Seeds: Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Xavier
11 Seeds: Michigan St., Seton Hall, USC, UT-Arlington
12 Seeds: Kansas St./Illinois St., Providence/Syracuse, UNC-Wilmington, Nevada
13 Seeds: Princeton, Vermont, Akron, Bucknell
14 Seeds: ETSU, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal St. Bakersfield
15 Seeds: Iona, North Dakota, NC Central, Texas Southern
16 Seeds: Northern Kentucky, Jacksonville St., South Dakota St./Mt. St. Mary's, UC-Davis/New Orleans
Last Four Byes:
Xavier
Michigan St.
Seton Hall
USC
Last Four In:
Kansas St.
Illinois St.
Providence
Syracuse
First Four Out:
Marquette
Rhode Island
Georgia
California
Next Four Out:
Houston
TCU
Indiana
Clemson
Also in Contention:
Iowa
Ole Miss
Illinois
Alabama
Bids by Conference:
ACC- 10
Big Ten- 7
Big East- 6
Big 12- 6
SEC- 5
Pac-12- 4
Atlantic 10- 2
American- 2
WCC- 2
MVC- 2
Wednesday, March 8, 2017
Bracketology- March 8, 2017: Syracuse Right on the Cut Line
**This bracket will be updated live as results come in during the course of the day Wednesday. Currently, it is up to date as of 1:00 AM ET.**
1 Seeds: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Oregon, Baylor, Arizona
3 Seeds: Louisville, Florida, Duke, Florida St.
4 Seeds: Virginia, UCLA, West Virginia, Butler
5 Seeds: Purdue, SMU, Cincinnati, Notre Dame
6 Seeds: Minnesota, Iowa St., St. Mary's, Maryland
7 Seeds: Oklahoma St., Miami, Arkansas, Wichita St.
8 Seeds: Creighton, Dayton, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech
9 Seeds: VCU, South Carolina, MTSU, Michigan
10 Seeds: Northwestern, USC, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest
11 Seeds: Michigan St., UT-Arlington, Seton Hall, Xavier
12 Seeds: Illinois St./Providence, Marquette/Syracuse, UNC-Wilmington, Nevada
13 Seeds: Princeton, Vermont, Akron, Bucknell
14 Seeds: ETSU, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal St. Bakersfield
15 Seeds: Iona, North Dakota, NC Central, Texas Southern
16 Seeds: Northern Kentucky, Jacksonville St., South Dakota St./Mt. St. Mary's, UC-Davis/New Orleans
Last Four Byes:
Wake Forest
Michigan St.
Seton Hall
Xavier
Last Four In:
Illinois St.
Providence
Marquette
Syracuse
First Four Out:
Rhode Island
Kansas St.
Georgia
Iowa
Next Four Out:
Houston
California
Clemson
Illinois
Also in Contention:
TCU
Ole Miss
Indiana
Bids by Conference:
ACC- 10
Big Ten- 7
Big East- 7
SEC- 5
Big 12- 5
Pac-12- 4
Atlantic 10- 2
American- 2
WCC- 2
MVC- 2
1 Seeds: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Oregon, Baylor, Arizona
3 Seeds: Louisville, Florida, Duke, Florida St.
4 Seeds: Virginia, UCLA, West Virginia, Butler
5 Seeds: Purdue, SMU, Cincinnati, Notre Dame
6 Seeds: Minnesota, Iowa St., St. Mary's, Maryland
7 Seeds: Oklahoma St., Miami, Arkansas, Wichita St.
8 Seeds: Creighton, Dayton, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech
9 Seeds: VCU, South Carolina, MTSU, Michigan
10 Seeds: Northwestern, USC, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest
11 Seeds: Michigan St., UT-Arlington, Seton Hall, Xavier
12 Seeds: Illinois St./Providence, Marquette/Syracuse, UNC-Wilmington, Nevada
13 Seeds: Princeton, Vermont, Akron, Bucknell
14 Seeds: ETSU, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal St. Bakersfield
15 Seeds: Iona, North Dakota, NC Central, Texas Southern
16 Seeds: Northern Kentucky, Jacksonville St., South Dakota St./Mt. St. Mary's, UC-Davis/New Orleans
Last Four Byes:
Wake Forest
Michigan St.
Seton Hall
Xavier
Last Four In:
Illinois St.
Providence
Marquette
Syracuse
First Four Out:
Rhode Island
Kansas St.
Georgia
Iowa
Next Four Out:
Houston
California
Clemson
Illinois
Also in Contention:
TCU
Ole Miss
Indiana
Bids by Conference:
ACC- 10
Big Ten- 7
Big East- 7
SEC- 5
Big 12- 5
Pac-12- 4
Atlantic 10- 2
American- 2
WCC- 2
MVC- 2
Tuesday, March 7, 2017
Bubble Watch- March 7, 2017: Lock up Wake Forest and Michigan
SEC:
South Carolina could easily withstand a first round loss to Ole Miss and make the tournament. Even a first round loss to Auburn likely wouldn't make the Gamecocks nervous. But, if Mizzou were to upset Auburn, then Ole Miss, and then South Carolina, I'm not 100% sure that South Carolina would be safe. So, I will wait to lock up South Carolina until after the Auburn-Missouri game tomorrow. If Auburn wins, South Carolina is a lock. Vanderbilt likely only needs a win over Texas A&M on Thursday as well; a loss to Florida would do nothing to hurt Vandy's solid resume, especially since they would still have the season series win over the Gators.
Locks (3): Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas
Probably In (2): South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Bubble (1): Georgia
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (4): Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee
ACC:
Both Wake Forest and Virginia Tech will make the tournament (yes, Wake is a lock- a power conference team with an RPI in the 20s is 100% safe- period), but their game is still critical from a seeding perspective, especially since the winner moves on in an ACC that offers ample opportunities for quality wins. Clemson kept itself in the conversation by beating NC State today, but they would need to upset Duke tomorrow to really have a shot at an at-large bid.
Locks (9): North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Probably In (0):
Bubble (2): Syracuse, Georgia Tech
Probably Out (1): Clemson
Watch Out (0):
Big 12:
All of the Big 12's bubble drama centers around Kansas St. The Wildcats, in my view, need to beat Baylor on Thursday. If they can't do that, it seems likely that enough other teams will take care of business that K-State will be relegated to the NIT.
Locks (5): Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Kansas St.
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (2): TCU, Texas Tech
Big Ten:
After avoiding its last chance at a bad loss against Nebraska on Sunday, Michigan's impressive late-season run has culminated in a certain at-large bid to the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Northwestern and Michigan St. can gain lock status as well by avoiding losses in their first games on Thursday (both against lesser competition). Illinois and Iowa really need wins on Thursday against Michigan and Indiana, respectively, just to stay in contention.
Locks (5): Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan
Probably In (2): Northwestern, Michigan St.
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Illinois, Iowa
Watch Out (2): Ohio St., Indiana
Pac-12:
Neither Cal nor USC can help their positions tomorrow in the opening rounds of the Pac-12 Tournament. But, losses could have disasterous consequences, especially if it is Cal losing. One win may not be enough either, since they would not even face a NCAA Tournament team in the quarterfinals (it would be Utah). If they got to the semifinals against Oregon, that might be enough for the Golden Bears.
Locks (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Probably In (1): USC
Bubble (1): Cal
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Utah
Big East:
All four Big East bubble teams appear to be on the right side of the bubble in a strong, but confusing, year for the Big East. Seton Hall plays Marquette on Thursday, which is obviously a game we will be watching closely for bubble concerns. Xavier is slumping and cannot afford to risk everything by losing to DePaul tomorrow night.
Locks (3): Villanova, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (0):
Bubble (4): Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
American:
The American is very weak this year. Cincinnati and SMU are all this league really has to offer in 2017. Houston is not completely out of at-large contention, but the weakness of leagues like the American, A-10, and MWC explains why we are seeing teams with RPIs in the 80s and 90s, ones with barely over .500 records, and squads with conference records as bad as 6-12 in the thick of bubble contention.
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Houston
Watch Out (0):
Missouri Valley:
Wichita St. made things simple by locking up the auto-bid in Arch Madness. As for Illinois St., it really could go either way, and that will largely depend on how the other bubble teams (the ones still playing this week) fare.
Locks (1): Wichita St. (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Illinois St.
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will almost certainly be a one-bid league this year. Nevada's bubble case isn't totally non-existent, but it can make this simple by winning the MWC Tournament this week. But, they are still more likely out than in if they lose in Las Vegas.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Nevada
Watch Out (1): Colorado St.
Atlantic-10:
Rhode Island is off until Friday, when they will face either St. Bonaventure or the winner of Wednesday's game between UMass and St. Joe's. Winning that game alone is probably not enough, but a potential win over Dayton on Saturday could change everything for Rhode Island.
Locks (2): Dayton, VCU
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Rhode Island
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Richmond
West Coast:
Now that we know that Gonzaga and St. Mary's will play tonight in the WCC title game, there is nothing more to watch (for bubble purposes, that is) in the WCC. Gonzaga and St. Mary's will go to the Big Dance, while BYU will hope for a NIT selection.
Locks (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Other Contenders:
UNC-Wilmington did what minor conference teams often have to do- win their conference tournament, instead of leaving it up to the committee. Monmouth, on the other hand, did not get that job done, and it is hard to see how they will get an at-large bid. We now wait on MTSU, UT-Arlington, and Princeton's conference tournaments (also, it would be a shame if Vermont loses in the America East championship).
Significant Auto-Bids: UNC-Wilmington, Florida Gulf Coast, ETSU
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): MTSU
Bubble (1): UT-Arlington
Probably Out (2): Monmouth, Princeton
Totals:
Locks: 35
Probably In: 6
Bubble: 12 (for 6 at-large spots)
Probably Out: 7
Watch Out: 11
South Carolina could easily withstand a first round loss to Ole Miss and make the tournament. Even a first round loss to Auburn likely wouldn't make the Gamecocks nervous. But, if Mizzou were to upset Auburn, then Ole Miss, and then South Carolina, I'm not 100% sure that South Carolina would be safe. So, I will wait to lock up South Carolina until after the Auburn-Missouri game tomorrow. If Auburn wins, South Carolina is a lock. Vanderbilt likely only needs a win over Texas A&M on Thursday as well; a loss to Florida would do nothing to hurt Vandy's solid resume, especially since they would still have the season series win over the Gators.
Locks (3): Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas
Probably In (2): South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Bubble (1): Georgia
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (4): Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee
ACC:
Both Wake Forest and Virginia Tech will make the tournament (yes, Wake is a lock- a power conference team with an RPI in the 20s is 100% safe- period), but their game is still critical from a seeding perspective, especially since the winner moves on in an ACC that offers ample opportunities for quality wins. Clemson kept itself in the conversation by beating NC State today, but they would need to upset Duke tomorrow to really have a shot at an at-large bid.
Locks (9): North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Probably In (0):
Bubble (2): Syracuse, Georgia Tech
Probably Out (1): Clemson
Watch Out (0):
Big 12:
All of the Big 12's bubble drama centers around Kansas St. The Wildcats, in my view, need to beat Baylor on Thursday. If they can't do that, it seems likely that enough other teams will take care of business that K-State will be relegated to the NIT.
Locks (5): Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Kansas St.
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (2): TCU, Texas Tech
Big Ten:
After avoiding its last chance at a bad loss against Nebraska on Sunday, Michigan's impressive late-season run has culminated in a certain at-large bid to the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Northwestern and Michigan St. can gain lock status as well by avoiding losses in their first games on Thursday (both against lesser competition). Illinois and Iowa really need wins on Thursday against Michigan and Indiana, respectively, just to stay in contention.
Locks (5): Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan
Probably In (2): Northwestern, Michigan St.
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Illinois, Iowa
Watch Out (2): Ohio St., Indiana
Pac-12:
Neither Cal nor USC can help their positions tomorrow in the opening rounds of the Pac-12 Tournament. But, losses could have disasterous consequences, especially if it is Cal losing. One win may not be enough either, since they would not even face a NCAA Tournament team in the quarterfinals (it would be Utah). If they got to the semifinals against Oregon, that might be enough for the Golden Bears.
Locks (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Probably In (1): USC
Bubble (1): Cal
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Utah
Big East:
All four Big East bubble teams appear to be on the right side of the bubble in a strong, but confusing, year for the Big East. Seton Hall plays Marquette on Thursday, which is obviously a game we will be watching closely for bubble concerns. Xavier is slumping and cannot afford to risk everything by losing to DePaul tomorrow night.
Locks (3): Villanova, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (0):
Bubble (4): Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
American:
The American is very weak this year. Cincinnati and SMU are all this league really has to offer in 2017. Houston is not completely out of at-large contention, but the weakness of leagues like the American, A-10, and MWC explains why we are seeing teams with RPIs in the 80s and 90s, ones with barely over .500 records, and squads with conference records as bad as 6-12 in the thick of bubble contention.
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Houston
Watch Out (0):
Missouri Valley:
Wichita St. made things simple by locking up the auto-bid in Arch Madness. As for Illinois St., it really could go either way, and that will largely depend on how the other bubble teams (the ones still playing this week) fare.
Locks (1): Wichita St. (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Illinois St.
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will almost certainly be a one-bid league this year. Nevada's bubble case isn't totally non-existent, but it can make this simple by winning the MWC Tournament this week. But, they are still more likely out than in if they lose in Las Vegas.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Nevada
Watch Out (1): Colorado St.
Atlantic-10:
Rhode Island is off until Friday, when they will face either St. Bonaventure or the winner of Wednesday's game between UMass and St. Joe's. Winning that game alone is probably not enough, but a potential win over Dayton on Saturday could change everything for Rhode Island.
Locks (2): Dayton, VCU
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Rhode Island
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Richmond
West Coast:
Now that we know that Gonzaga and St. Mary's will play tonight in the WCC title game, there is nothing more to watch (for bubble purposes, that is) in the WCC. Gonzaga and St. Mary's will go to the Big Dance, while BYU will hope for a NIT selection.
Locks (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Other Contenders:
UNC-Wilmington did what minor conference teams often have to do- win their conference tournament, instead of leaving it up to the committee. Monmouth, on the other hand, did not get that job done, and it is hard to see how they will get an at-large bid. We now wait on MTSU, UT-Arlington, and Princeton's conference tournaments (also, it would be a shame if Vermont loses in the America East championship).
Significant Auto-Bids: UNC-Wilmington, Florida Gulf Coast, ETSU
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): MTSU
Bubble (1): UT-Arlington
Probably Out (2): Monmouth, Princeton
Totals:
Locks: 35
Probably In: 6
Bubble: 12 (for 6 at-large spots)
Probably Out: 7
Watch Out: 11
Bracketology- March 7, 2017
1 Seeds: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Oregon, Baylor, Arizona
3 Seeds: Louisville, Florida, Duke, Florida St.
4 Seeds: Virginia, UCLA, West Virginia, Butler
5 Seeds: Purdue, SMU, Cincinnati, Notre Dame
6 Seeds: Minnesota, Iowa St., St. Mary's, Maryland
7 Seeds: Oklahoma St., Arkansas, Miami, Wichita St.
8 Seeds: Creighton, Dayton, Wisconsin, VCU
9 Seeds: South Carolina, Virginia Tech, MTSU, Michigan
10 Seeds: Northwestern, USC, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt
11 Seeds: Michigan St., Xavier, UT-Arlington, Seton Hall
12 Seeds: Illinois St./Providence, Syracuse/Marquette, UNC-Wilmington, Nevada
13 Seeds: Princeton, Vermont, Akron, Bucknell
14 Seeds: ETSU, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal St. Bakersfield
15 Seeds: Iona, North Dakota, NC Central, Texas Southern
16 Seeds: Northern Kentucky, Jacksonville St., Omaha/Mt. St. Mary's, UC-Davis/New Orleans
Last Four Byes:
Vanderbilt
Michigan St.
Xavier
Seton Hall
Last Four In:
Illinois St.
Providence
Syracuse
Marquette
First Four Out:
Rhode Island
Kansas St.
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Next Four Out:
Iowa
California
Clemson
Houston
Also in Contention:
Illinois
TCU
Ohio St.
Ole Miss
Bids by Conference:
ACC- 10
Big Ten- 7
Big East- 7
SEC- 5
Big 12- 5
Pac-12- 4
American- 2
WCC- 2
MVC- 2
Atlantic 10- 2
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Oregon, Baylor, Arizona
3 Seeds: Louisville, Florida, Duke, Florida St.
4 Seeds: Virginia, UCLA, West Virginia, Butler
5 Seeds: Purdue, SMU, Cincinnati, Notre Dame
6 Seeds: Minnesota, Iowa St., St. Mary's, Maryland
7 Seeds: Oklahoma St., Arkansas, Miami, Wichita St.
8 Seeds: Creighton, Dayton, Wisconsin, VCU
9 Seeds: South Carolina, Virginia Tech, MTSU, Michigan
10 Seeds: Northwestern, USC, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt
11 Seeds: Michigan St., Xavier, UT-Arlington, Seton Hall
12 Seeds: Illinois St./Providence, Syracuse/Marquette, UNC-Wilmington, Nevada
13 Seeds: Princeton, Vermont, Akron, Bucknell
14 Seeds: ETSU, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal St. Bakersfield
15 Seeds: Iona, North Dakota, NC Central, Texas Southern
16 Seeds: Northern Kentucky, Jacksonville St., Omaha/Mt. St. Mary's, UC-Davis/New Orleans
Last Four Byes:
Vanderbilt
Michigan St.
Xavier
Seton Hall
Last Four In:
Illinois St.
Providence
Syracuse
Marquette
First Four Out:
Rhode Island
Kansas St.
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Next Four Out:
Iowa
California
Clemson
Houston
Also in Contention:
Illinois
TCU
Ohio St.
Ole Miss
Bids by Conference:
ACC- 10
Big Ten- 7
Big East- 7
SEC- 5
Big 12- 5
Pac-12- 4
American- 2
WCC- 2
MVC- 2
Atlantic 10- 2
Monday, March 6, 2017
Bracketology- March 6, 2017: Illinois St. among the Last Four In
1 Seeds: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Oregon, Baylor, Arizona
3 Seeds: Louisville, Florida, Duke, Florida St.
4 Seeds: Virginia, UCLA, West Virginia, Butler
5 Seeds: Purdue, SMU, Cincinnati, Notre Dame
6 Seeds: Minnesota, Iowa St., St. Mary's, Maryland
7 Seeds: Oklahoma St., Arkansas, Miami, Wichita St.
8 Seeds: Creighton, Dayton, Wisconsin, VCU
9 Seeds: South Carolina, Virginia Tech, MTSU, Michigan
10 Seeds: Northwestern, USC, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt
11 Seeds: Michigan St., Xavier, UT-Arlington, Seton Hall
12 Seeds: Illinois St./Providence, Syracuse/Marquette, UNC-Wilmington, Nevada
13 Seeds: Princeton, Vermont, Akron, Bucknell
14 Seeds: ETSU, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal St. Bakersfield
15 Seeds: Iona, South Dakota, NC Central, Texas Southern
16 Seeds: Northern Kentucky, North Dakota, Jacksonville St./Mt. St. Mary's, UC-Davis/New Orleans
Last Four Byes:
Vanderbilt
Michigan St.
Xavier
Seton Hall
Last Four In:
Illinois St.
Providence
Syracuse
Marquette
First Four Out:
Rhode Island
Kansas St.
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Next Four Out:
Iowa
California
Clemson
Houston
Also in Contention:
Illinois
TCU
Ohio St.
Ole Miss
Bids by Conference:
ACC- 10
Big Ten- 7
Big East- 7
SEC- 5
Big 12- 5
Pac-12- 4
American- 2
WCC- 2
MVC- 2
Atlantic 10- 2
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Oregon, Baylor, Arizona
3 Seeds: Louisville, Florida, Duke, Florida St.
4 Seeds: Virginia, UCLA, West Virginia, Butler
5 Seeds: Purdue, SMU, Cincinnati, Notre Dame
6 Seeds: Minnesota, Iowa St., St. Mary's, Maryland
7 Seeds: Oklahoma St., Arkansas, Miami, Wichita St.
8 Seeds: Creighton, Dayton, Wisconsin, VCU
9 Seeds: South Carolina, Virginia Tech, MTSU, Michigan
10 Seeds: Northwestern, USC, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt
11 Seeds: Michigan St., Xavier, UT-Arlington, Seton Hall
12 Seeds: Illinois St./Providence, Syracuse/Marquette, UNC-Wilmington, Nevada
13 Seeds: Princeton, Vermont, Akron, Bucknell
14 Seeds: ETSU, Winthrop, Florida Gulf Coast, Cal St. Bakersfield
15 Seeds: Iona, South Dakota, NC Central, Texas Southern
16 Seeds: Northern Kentucky, North Dakota, Jacksonville St./Mt. St. Mary's, UC-Davis/New Orleans
Last Four Byes:
Vanderbilt
Michigan St.
Xavier
Seton Hall
Last Four In:
Illinois St.
Providence
Syracuse
Marquette
First Four Out:
Rhode Island
Kansas St.
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Next Four Out:
Iowa
California
Clemson
Houston
Also in Contention:
Illinois
TCU
Ohio St.
Ole Miss
Bids by Conference:
ACC- 10
Big Ten- 7
Big East- 7
SEC- 5
Big 12- 5
Pac-12- 4
American- 2
WCC- 2
MVC- 2
Atlantic 10- 2
Saturday, March 4, 2017
Bubble Watch 3/4/17- Arkansas and VCU are Locks
SEC:
Congratulations to Arkansas on a big win over Georgia and joining the locks! But, the bigger SEC bubble story is Vanderbilt's victory over Florida, which clearly puts the Commodores on the right side of the bubble for now. A win against Texas A&M on Thursday, and Vanderbilt is a lock, but it would be dicey (just like last year), if the Commodores are upset in their first game at the SEC Tournament. Meanwhile, we bid farewell to Alabama following a disappointing loss at Tennessee that saw the Tide blow a sizable lead.
Locks (3): Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas
Probably In (2): South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Bubble (1): Georgia
Probably Out (1): Tennessee
Watch Out (3): Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
ACC:
Virginia Tech should still be safe, but they didn't do any favors to me in their first game as a lock, falling to Wake Forest, which is looking safer by the day. As long as the Demon Deacons can avoid a disaster against Boston College on Tuesday, they should be safe. Also, Pittsburgh's bubble hopes are no more; while they may be a decent team, there is no way that a 4-14 conference record is getting anyone in to the NCAA Tournament.
Locks (8): North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech
Probably In (1):Wake Forest
Bubble (2): Syracuse, Georgia Tech
Probably Out (1): Clemson
Watch Out (0):
Big 12:
Little has changed in the Big 12 bubble picture. Kansas St. remains right on the cut line, one way or the other. While they were definitely a surprising success in 2017, TCU's bubble hopes are pretty much done following their loss to Oklahoma today.
Locks (5): Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Kansas St.
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (2): TCU, Texas Tech
Big Ten:
Rule #1 of being on the bubble has to be "you can't lose to Rutgers". Somehow, Illinois, after working so hard to get back on the bubble, did just that today. It doesn't end their hopes for an at-large, but it puts the Illini in the position of having to make a major run next week. While it is a long shot, we should add Iowa, which plays Penn St. tomorrow, into the mix. For Northwestern fans, I promise, beat Purdue tomorrow and you are a lock for the first time ever.
Locks (4): Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin
Probably In (3): Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan St.
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Illinois, Iowa
Watch Out (2): Ohio St., Indiana
Pac-12:
Has any team in the country hurt themselves more over the last 48 hours than Cal? They are still a bubble team with a real shot of making the tournament, but do you have any confidence in them to not lose their first game in the Pac-12 Tournament. USC should be fine, even without another win, but I am holding off on the lock move out of an abundance of caution.
Locks (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Probably In (1): USC
Bubble (1): Cal
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Utah
Big East:
My current Bracketology has something that would be avoided at all costs- a clash between Big East teams in Dayton. But, it couldn't be avoided, because three of my last four in (plus my last team with a bye) are from one conference. So, make that four of the last five in from the Big East. They are all in for now, but none of them have any margin for error as we head down the stretch.
Locks (3): Villanova, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (0):
Bubble (4): Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
American:
The American is very weak this year. Cincinnati and SMU are all this league really has to offer in 2017. Houston is not completely out of at-large contention, but the weakness of leagues like the American, A-10, and MWC explains why we are seeing teams with RPIs in the 80s and 90s, ones with barely over .500 records, and squads with conference records as bad as 6-12 in the thick of bubble contention.
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Houston
Watch Out (0):
Missouri Valley:
Wichita St. and Illinois St. are indeed meeting in the MVC Finals. Obviously, the winner is in, but the Shockers are probably in better shape for an at-large of the two. Still, Illinois St.'s resume (their RPI in particular) would look really tempting to the committee as a potential at-large.
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): Wichita St.
Bubble (1): Illinois St.
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will almost certainly be a one-bid league this year. Nevada's bubble case isn't totally non-existent, but it can make this simple by winning the MWC Tournament next week. But, they are still more likely out than in if they lose in Las Vegas.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Nevada
Watch Out (1): Colorado St.
Atlantic-10:
Rhode Island escaped in overtime against Davidson at home to remain right on the bubble. Also, fine, VCU is a lock. Rams fans, you're going dancing!
Locks (2): Dayton, VCU
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Rhode Island
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Richmond
West Coast:
BYU could steal a bid if it can pull off another upset, but, otherwise, it is Gonzaga and St. Mary's from the WCC. Sound familiar?
Locks (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): BYU
Other Contenders:
Let me just come out and say this- it will be a travesty if the committee does not give MTSU a bid, even if they lose in the C-USA Tournament. But, beyond them and UT-Arlington, there are few mid- and low majors that have chances at at-large bids this year. UNC-Wilmington, Monmouth, and Princeton would make cases, but they would be long shots for at-large bids, especially since losses in these conference tournaments would, by nature, be bad losses.
Significant Auto-Bids:
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): MTSU
Bubble (1): UT-Arlington
Probably Out (3): UNC-Wilmington, Monmouth, Princeton
Totals:
Locks: 32
Probably In: 9
Bubble: 12 (for 6 at-large spots)
Probably Out: 9
Watch Out: 11
Congratulations to Arkansas on a big win over Georgia and joining the locks! But, the bigger SEC bubble story is Vanderbilt's victory over Florida, which clearly puts the Commodores on the right side of the bubble for now. A win against Texas A&M on Thursday, and Vanderbilt is a lock, but it would be dicey (just like last year), if the Commodores are upset in their first game at the SEC Tournament. Meanwhile, we bid farewell to Alabama following a disappointing loss at Tennessee that saw the Tide blow a sizable lead.
Locks (3): Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas
Probably In (2): South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Bubble (1): Georgia
Probably Out (1): Tennessee
Watch Out (3): Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
ACC:
Virginia Tech should still be safe, but they didn't do any favors to me in their first game as a lock, falling to Wake Forest, which is looking safer by the day. As long as the Demon Deacons can avoid a disaster against Boston College on Tuesday, they should be safe. Also, Pittsburgh's bubble hopes are no more; while they may be a decent team, there is no way that a 4-14 conference record is getting anyone in to the NCAA Tournament.
Locks (8): North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech
Probably In (1):Wake Forest
Bubble (2): Syracuse, Georgia Tech
Probably Out (1): Clemson
Watch Out (0):
Big 12:
Little has changed in the Big 12 bubble picture. Kansas St. remains right on the cut line, one way or the other. While they were definitely a surprising success in 2017, TCU's bubble hopes are pretty much done following their loss to Oklahoma today.
Locks (5): Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Kansas St.
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (2): TCU, Texas Tech
Big Ten:
Rule #1 of being on the bubble has to be "you can't lose to Rutgers". Somehow, Illinois, after working so hard to get back on the bubble, did just that today. It doesn't end their hopes for an at-large, but it puts the Illini in the position of having to make a major run next week. While it is a long shot, we should add Iowa, which plays Penn St. tomorrow, into the mix. For Northwestern fans, I promise, beat Purdue tomorrow and you are a lock for the first time ever.
Locks (4): Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin
Probably In (3): Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan St.
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Illinois, Iowa
Watch Out (2): Ohio St., Indiana
Pac-12:
Has any team in the country hurt themselves more over the last 48 hours than Cal? They are still a bubble team with a real shot of making the tournament, but do you have any confidence in them to not lose their first game in the Pac-12 Tournament. USC should be fine, even without another win, but I am holding off on the lock move out of an abundance of caution.
Locks (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Probably In (1): USC
Bubble (1): Cal
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Utah
Big East:
My current Bracketology has something that would be avoided at all costs- a clash between Big East teams in Dayton. But, it couldn't be avoided, because three of my last four in (plus my last team with a bye) are from one conference. So, make that four of the last five in from the Big East. They are all in for now, but none of them have any margin for error as we head down the stretch.
Locks (3): Villanova, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (0):
Bubble (4): Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
American:
The American is very weak this year. Cincinnati and SMU are all this league really has to offer in 2017. Houston is not completely out of at-large contention, but the weakness of leagues like the American, A-10, and MWC explains why we are seeing teams with RPIs in the 80s and 90s, ones with barely over .500 records, and squads with conference records as bad as 6-12 in the thick of bubble contention.
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Houston
Watch Out (0):
Missouri Valley:
Wichita St. and Illinois St. are indeed meeting in the MVC Finals. Obviously, the winner is in, but the Shockers are probably in better shape for an at-large of the two. Still, Illinois St.'s resume (their RPI in particular) would look really tempting to the committee as a potential at-large.
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): Wichita St.
Bubble (1): Illinois St.
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will almost certainly be a one-bid league this year. Nevada's bubble case isn't totally non-existent, but it can make this simple by winning the MWC Tournament next week. But, they are still more likely out than in if they lose in Las Vegas.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Nevada
Watch Out (1): Colorado St.
Atlantic-10:
Rhode Island escaped in overtime against Davidson at home to remain right on the bubble. Also, fine, VCU is a lock. Rams fans, you're going dancing!
Locks (2): Dayton, VCU
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Rhode Island
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Richmond
West Coast:
BYU could steal a bid if it can pull off another upset, but, otherwise, it is Gonzaga and St. Mary's from the WCC. Sound familiar?
Locks (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): BYU
Other Contenders:
Let me just come out and say this- it will be a travesty if the committee does not give MTSU a bid, even if they lose in the C-USA Tournament. But, beyond them and UT-Arlington, there are few mid- and low majors that have chances at at-large bids this year. UNC-Wilmington, Monmouth, and Princeton would make cases, but they would be long shots for at-large bids, especially since losses in these conference tournaments would, by nature, be bad losses.
Significant Auto-Bids:
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): MTSU
Bubble (1): UT-Arlington
Probably Out (3): UNC-Wilmington, Monmouth, Princeton
Totals:
Locks: 32
Probably In: 9
Bubble: 12 (for 6 at-large spots)
Probably Out: 9
Watch Out: 11
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