Over in our Bracketology, we currently have the majority of the 36 at-large bids being consumed by three conferences- the ACC, Big 12, and the suddenly strong SEC. That SEC was a three-bid league just two years ago (with one even falling in the First Four) and just a five-bid one last year. This year, it is looking solid for eight with an outside path to nine, or even ten. It is also worth noting that lock means lock, and we will not put teams in that status if we think that they even need one more win the rest of the way.
Math:
Locks: 29 (includes nine auto-bids)
Probably In: 15 (includes one auto-bid)
Bubble: 8 (for two at-large bids; MTSU currently projected as an auto-bid)
Probably Out: 10 (includes three auto-bids)
SEC:
What a turnaround for the SEC in 2018, despite some usual contenders having down years (including one of the two SEC teams to make it in both 2016 and 2017- Vanderbilt, which is nowhere to be found on this page- and a Final Four team from 2017 in South Carolina). I certainly think setting a league record is likely, if not nearly certain. All three "Probably In" teams are closer to locks than the bubble, and could take steps towards securing their bids entirely this week. The two "Probably Out" teams are right on the border of moving up to the bubble category. Mississippi State is a really interesting case, as it has a winning record in one of the strongest leagues in America, but that is probably the best thing about its resume right now. It did not beat Tennessee, but will certainly have more opportunities.
Locks (5): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri
Probably In (3): Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Mississippi State, Georgia
Over/Under: 8.5
ACC:
No question about it- Virginia Tech made a major push towards securing a NCAA Tournament bid by beating Duke on Monday. Like it or not, RPI and RPI-based SOS are still factors the committee uses, and they are relatively weak there. Would they make it if they lost this weekend and in their first game in the ACC Tournament? Maybe. That is not a lock (sorry, ESPN Bubble Watch). Win one more, and I will pull the trigger, Hokies.
Locks (5): Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Probably In (4): Florida State, Louisville, NC State, Virginia Tech
Bubble (1): Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Notre Dame
Over/Under: 9
Big 12:
If you want to watch an exciting, topsy-turvy league that will have a lot on the line in its conference tournament, watch the Big 12. Just when we thought Oklahoma was safe, they get blown out in Waco, an effort that earns the Bears "Probably In" status as well. We may or may not be able to hand out locks this weekend.
Locks (4): Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU
Probably In (2): Oklahoma, Baylor
Bubble (2): Texas, Kansas State
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 7
Big East:
Providence should be OK, and Marquette needs a miracle. Honestly, there is not much interesting to report in the Big East, besides jockeying for seeding- including two possible #1 seeds in Villanova and Xavier.
Locks (5): Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Marquette
Over/Under: 6
Big Ten:
Nebraska has a great record and will receive a double-bye at Madison Square Garden next week. But, the rest of their resume is mediocre, and they will probably need a signature win in the Big Apple. Penn State is another interesting case for the committee. They have a season sweep of Ohio State and excellent numbers in the advanced metrics (28 in BPI and 32 in KenPom), but the traditional metrics (9-9 in a weak Big Ten and a dreadful RPI in the 80s) make it unlikely that the committee will give them a bid.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Nebraska
Probably Out (1): Penn State
Over/Under: 4.5
Pac-12:
Slumping Arizona State needs to stop the bleeding. If it were not for one of the best non-conference resumes in the country, this team would not even be a bubble team. Washington, Utah, UCLA, and Oregon all need to pick up big wins to have a shot, while USC just needs to avoid bad losses.
Locks (1): Arizona
Probably In (2): Arizona State, USC
Bubble (3): Washington, Utah, UCLA
Probably Out (1): Oregon
Over/Under: 3.5
American:
Nothing to see here unless we have some bid thievery.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 3
Atlantic 10:
Davidson gave it such an effort, losing in 3 OT to Saint Bonaventure, but it was not quite enough. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, I think that ends any possibility of an at-large bid. Let's all try to forget about Rhode Island somehow losing by 30 to Saint Joe's. They were already a lock, but what happened there?
Locks (1): Rhode Island
Probably In (1): Saint Bonaventure
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 2
Mountain West:
We are just being cautious with Nevada. One more win (against UNLV or San Diego State) should do it for the Wolf Pack. Boise probably needed to win out all the way to the MWC Championship against Nevada to have an at-large chance, but they lost to San Diego State. I do not think there are the opportunities for big wins necessary for the Broncos to get an at-large bid.
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): Nevada
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 1.5
West Coast:
Yet another season, yet another year where Gonzaga and St. Mary's will likely represent the WCC in March Madness.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (1): Saint Mary's
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 2
Others:
The committee has not been kind to teams outside the Power 7+3 in recent years. MTSU is the most likely to receive an at-large, as they have developed a mini-power in Murfreesboro, but they were underseeded last year (suggesting they likely would not have received an at-large had they failed to secure an auto-bid). Is there any reason to suggest that this year will be any different, other than being in the AP Top 25? The Blue Raiders would be better off just grabbing the auto-bid instead of leaving this to the committee.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): MTSU
Probably Out (4): Western Kentucky, Louisiana, Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State
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