Bracketology- BYU Still In Comfortably

NOTE: This is up-to-date as of the end of the day Tuesday, March 11.

Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order.  Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.

1-Seeds: Florida (South), Wichita St. (Midwest), Arizona (West), Villanova (East)
2-Seeds: Wisconsin, Virginia, Kansas, Duke
3-Seeds: Syracuse, Michigan, Creighton, San Diego St.
4-Seeds: Louisville, North Carolina, Iowa St., Cincinnati
5-Seeds: St. Louis, Michigan St., VCU, Oklahoma
6-Seeds: UCLA, Connecticut, Kentucky, Massachusetts
7-Seeds: George Washington, Ohio St., Texas, Gonzaga
8-Seeds:  Memphis, SMU, Colorado, Iowa
9-Seeds:  Kansas St., Baylor, New Mexico, Oklahoma St.
10-Seeds: BYU, Arizona St., Oregon, St. Joe's
11-Seeds: Pittsburgh, Stanford, Toledo, Nebraska
12-Seeds: Tennessee/Dayton, Xavier/Minnesota, Harvard, North Dakota St.
13-Seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Belmont, Iona, Delaware
14-Seeds: Middle Tennessee, Mercer, New Mexico St., Boston University
15-Seeds: Vermont, Georgia St., Davidson, Wright St.
16-Seeds: UCSB, Robert Morris, North Carolina Central/Alabama St., Coastal Carolina/Weber St.

Last Four Byes:
St. Joe's
Pittsburgh
Stanford
Nebraska

Last Four In:
Tennessee
Minnesota
Xavier
Dayton

First Four Out:
California
Arkansas
Providence
Georgetown

Next Four Out:
St. John's
Florida St.

West Virginia
Southern Miss

Third Four Out:

Missouri
NC State
Georgia
Utah

Bids By Conference:
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 7
Pac-12- 6

Atlantic-10- 6

ACC- 5
American- 5
Big East- 3
SEC- 3
Mountain West- 2

WCC- 2

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.

Spots Available:
Locks: 34 (barring upsets, includes 11 conference winners)
Probably In: 5
Bubble: 14 (for 8 spots)
Probably Out: 9

ACC
Pitt is safe unless the bubble shrinks and it has a terrible loss.  Florida St. will need a strong showing in Greensboro to make it, while NC State is far on the periphery of this talk and would likely need to make the championship game to have a shot.

Locks: Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, UNC
Probably In: Pitt
On the Bubble: Florida St.
Probably Out: NC State
Over / Under: 5

American
The new league has five locks and nothing else.

Locks: Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis, SMU
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over/Under: 5

Big East
Xavier, Providence, and St. John's all sit squarely on the cut line, while Georgetown, despite its great wins, has substantial work to do in New York.

Locks: Villanova, Creighton
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Xavier, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 3.5

Big Ten
By virtue of getting a bye, Nebraska is virtually immune to a bad loss, so I am moving them to Probably In.  Watch out for Illinois, a team that is playing much better basketball and could make things interesting with a win over Indiana and an upset of Michigan.

Locks: Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan St., Ohio St., Iowa
Probably In: Nebraska
On the Bubble: Minnesota
Probably Out: Illinois
Over / Under: 6.5

Big 12
This weekend, Baylor locked itself, and Oklahoma St. was so close to doing so as well.  Both should be fine.  West Virginia's win over Kansas is a good start, but it still has a long way to go.

Locks: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa St., Kansas St., Baylor
Probably In: Oklahoma St.
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: West Virginia
Over / Under: 7

Pac-12
Oregon's win over Arizona is such a good win that it almost ends bubble drama for them.  Think about a team that was 3-8 in conference and rattles off 7 straight to finish 10-8.  Stanford is just above the bubble, Cal is right on it, and Utah is done.

Locks: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado
Probably In: Arizona St., Oregon
On the Bubble: California, Stanford
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 6.5

SEC
Missouri is playing such terrible basketball that I don't see how it could make the tournament.  It looks as if the possible Tennessee-Arkansas could be a de facto play-in game to the First Four.

Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Tennessee, Arkansas
Probably Out: Georgia, Missouri
Over / Under: 3

Mountain West
The MWC is way down from last year and completely lacks bubble drama.

Locks: San Diego St., New Mexico
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 2

Atlantic Ten
Richmond is done, and St. Joe's is getting dangerously close to the bubble, but still has some cushion.  Dayton probably needs a win or two to go home for the First Four.

Locks: St. Louis, VCU, Massachusetts, George Washington
Probably In: St. Joe's
On the Bubble: Dayton
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5

Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
Both Gonzaga and BYU are locks at this point.  Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech are probably out, only because, unless they play each other, any loss is a bad loss.

Tickets Punched: Harvard, Mercer, Coastal Carolina, Delaware, Wichita St., Manhattan, Eastern Kentucky, Wofford
Locks: Gonzaga, BYU
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech

Bracketology- Nebraska Moves In

NOTE: This is up-to-date as of 10:35 PM Eastern time on Monday, March 10.

Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order.  Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.

1-Seeds: Florida (South), Wichita St. (Midwest), Arizona (West), Villanova (East)
2-Seeds: Wisconsin, Virginia, Kansas, Duke
3-Seeds: Syracuse, Michigan, Creighton, San Diego St.
4-Seeds: Louisville, North Carolina, Iowa St., Cincinnati
5-Seeds: St. Louis, Michigan St., VCU, Oklahoma
6-Seeds: UCLA, Connecticut, Kentucky, Massachusetts
7-Seeds: George Washington, Ohio St., Texas, Memphis
8-Seeds:  SMU, Colorado, Gonzaga, Iowa
9-Seeds: BYU, Kansas St., Baylor, New Mexico
10-Seeds: Oklahoma St., Arizona St., Oregon, St. Joe's
11-Seeds: Pittsburgh, Stanford, Toledo, Nebraska
12-Seeds: Tennessee/Dayton, Xavier/Minnesota, Harvard, North Dakota St.
13-Seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Belmont, Iona, Delaware
14-Seeds: Middle Tennessee, Mercer, New Mexico St., Boston University
15-Seeds: Vermont, Georgia St., Davidson, Wright St.
16-Seeds: UCSB, Robert Morris, North Carolina Central/Alabama St., Coastal Carolina/Weber St.

Last Four Byes:
St. Joe's
Pittsburgh
Stanford
Nebraska

Last Four In:
Tennessee
Minnesota
Xavier
Dayton

First Four Out:
California
Arkansas
Providence
Georgetown

Next Four Out:
St. John's
Florida St.

West Virginia
Southern Miss

Third Four Out:

Missouri
NC State
Georgia
Utah

Bids By Conference:
Big 12- 7
Big Ten- 7
Pac-12- 6

Atlantic-10- 6

ACC- 5
American- 5
Big East- 3
SEC- 3
Mountain West- 2

WCC- 2

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.

Spots Available:
Locks: 34 (barring upsets, includes 11 conference winners)
Probably In: 5
Bubble: 14 (for 8 spots)
Probably Out: 9

ACC
The league has four bonafide locks and then a Pitt team that should be fine, despite underpreforming, and a few frantically trying to make it.

Locks: Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, UNC
Probably In: Pitt
On the Bubble: Florida St.
Probably Out: Clemson, NC State
Over / Under: 5.5

American
The new league has five locks and nothing else.

Locks: Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis, SMU
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over/Under: 5

Big East
This year, the Big East has plenty of bubble drama, which, strangely never seemed to happen when it was a larger league.

Locks: Villanova, Creighton
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: Xavier, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 4

Big Ten
I think that the Big Ten is overrated, but we will see come tournament time.

Locks: Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan St., Ohio St., Iowa
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: Minnesota, Nebraska
Probably Out: Indiana
Over / Under: 5.5

Big 12

While they are both fairly close to the cut line, I think that both Baylor and Oklahoma St. will wind up getting in and could do damage come tournament time.

Locks: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa St., Kansas St.
Probably In: Oklahoma St., Baylor
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: West Virginia
Over / Under: 7

Pac-12
Arizona, UCLA, and Colorado are in good shape, and Arizona St. is close to joining them, but Stanford, California, and Oregon, while all in as of now, still need to sure up their resumes.

Locks: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado
Probably In: Arizona St.
On the Bubble: California, Stanford, Oregon
Probably Out: Utah
Over / Under: 6.5

SEC
The big question in the SEC is whether anyone other than Kentucky and Florida will make it.  With several classic bubble teams, at least one should make it.

Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas
Probably Out: Georgia
Over / Under: 3.5

Mountain West
The MWC is way down from last year and completely lacks bubble drama.

Locks: San Diego St., New Mexico
Probably In:
On the Bubble: 
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 2

Atlantic Ten
After beating St. Joe's today, I feel comfortable moving George Washington to a lock.  St. Joe's should soon join them.

Locks: St. Louis, VCU, Massachusetts, George Washington
Probably In: St. Joe's
On the Bubble: Dayton
Probably Out: Richmond
Over / Under: 5.5

Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
Wichita St. and Gonzaga are the only teams from Mid-majors that I think will see their names called even without a conference championship.  While I have Toledo solidly in the field as of now, a bad loss would knock them out.


Locks: Wichita St., Gonzaga
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Toledo, Southern Miss

Bracketology

NOTE: This is up-to-date as of 11:50 PM Eastern time on Wednesday, March 5.

Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order.  Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.

1-Seeds: Florida (South), Arizona (West), Wichita St. (Midwest), Virginia (East)
2-Seeds: Kansas, Villanova, Wisconsin, Duke
3-Seeds: Syracuse, Michigan, San Diego St., North Carolina
4-Seeds: Creighton, Louisville, UCLA, Iowa St.
5-Seeds: Cincinnati, St. Louis, VCU, Kentucky
6-Seeds: Michigan St., Oklahoma, Texas, Connecticut
7-Seeds: Massachusetts, George Washington, Ohio St., SMU
8-Seeds:  Colorado, Memphis, Iowa, Kansas St
9-Seeds: BYU, Gonzaga, St. Joe's, Arizona St.
10-Seeds: New Mexico, Oklahoma St., Baylor, Pittsburgh
11-Seeds: Stanford, Toledo, California, Tennessee
12-Seeds: Oregon/Providence, Minnesota/Xavier, Harvard, North Dakota St.
13-Seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Green Bay, Belmont, Iona
14-Seeds: Delaware, Middle Tennessee, Mercer, New Mexico St.
15-Seeds: Boston University, Vermont, Georgia St., Davidson
16-Seeds: UCSB, Robert Morris, North Carolina Central/Alabama St., VMI/Weber St.

Last Four Byes:
Pittsburgh
Stanford
California
Tennessee

Last Four In:
Oregon
Minnesota
Xavier
Providence

First Four Out:
Arkansas
Nebraska
Georgetown
Dayton

Next Four Out:
Florida St.
St. John's
Missouri
Utah

Third Four Out:
Clemson
West Virginia
Richmond

NC State

Bids By Conference:
Big 12- 7
Pac-12- 7
Big Ten- 6
ACC- 5
American- 5
Atlantic-10- 5
Big East- 4
SEC- 3
Mountain West- 2
WCC- 2

Bracketology

NOTE: This is up-to-date as of 11:35 PM Eastern time on Thursday, February 27.

Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order.  Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.

1-Seeds: Florida (South), Arizona (West), Syracuse (East), Wichita St. (Midwest)
2-Seeds: Kansas, Duke, Creighton, Virginia
3-Seeds: Villanova, Wisconsin, San Diego St., Michigan
4-Seeds: Michigan, Iowa St., Michigan St., St. Louis, UCLA
5-Seeds: Cincinnati, Kentucky, Louisville, North Carolina
6-Seeds: Texas, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, VCU
7-Seeds: Ohio St., George Washington, Colorado, SMU
8-Seeds: Connecticut, Kansas St., Iowa, BYU
9-Seeds: Memphis, Gonzaga, St. Joe's, Pittsburgh
10-Seeds: New Mexico, Arizona St., Stanford, Baylor
11-Seeds: California, Xavier, Toledo, Oklahoma St.
12-Seeds: Minnesota/Oregon, Providence/Tennessee, Harvard, North Dakota St.
13-Seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Green Bay, Belmont, Iona
14-Seeds: Delaware, Middle Tennessee, Mercer, New Mexico St.
15-Seeds: Boston University, Vermont, Georgia St., Davidson
16-Seeds: UCSB, Robert Morris, North Carolina Central/Alabama St., VMI/Weber St.

Last Four Byes:
Arizona St.
California
Xavier
Oklahoma St.

Last Four In:
Minnesota
Providence
Tennessee
Oregon

First Four Out:
Missouri
Georgetown
Nebraska
Arkansas

Next Four Out:
Richmond
St. John's
Florida St.
Georgia

Third Four Out:
West Virginia
Marquette
LSU
NC State

Bids By Conference:
Big 12- 7
Pac-12- 7
Big Ten- 6
ACC- 5
American- 5
Atlantic-10- 5
Big East- 4
SEC- 3
Mountain West- 2
WCC- 2

Bracketology

Within a seed, teams are listed in s-curve order.  Projected conference champions (by current standings) are in bold.

1-Seeds: Florida (South), Arizona (West), Syracuse (East), Wichita St. (Midwest)
2-Seeds: Kansas, Duke, Creighton, St. Louis
3-Seeds: Villanova, Virginia, Wisconsin, San Diego St.
4-Seeds: Kentucky, Michigan, Iowa St., Michigan St.
5-Seeds: UCLA, Cincinnati, Louisville, Ohio St.
6-Seeds: Oklahoma, North Carolina, Massachusetts, Texas
7-Seeds: Iowa, VCU, George Washington, Colorado
8-Seeds: SMU, Connecticut, Kansas St., BYU
9-Seeds: Memphis, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, St. Joe's
10-Seeds: Stanford, Baylor, New Mexico, Arizona St.
11-Seeds: California, Toledo, Xavier, Oklahoma St.
12-Seeds: Providence/Georgetown, Missouri/Minnesota, Harvard, North Dakota St.
13-Seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Green Bay, Belmont, Iona
14-Seeds: Delaware, Middle Tennessee, Mercer, New Mexico St.
15-Seeds: Boston University, Vermont, Georgia St., Davidson
16-Seeds: UCSB, Robert Morris, North Carolina Central/Alabama St., VMI/Weber St.

Last Four Byes:
Arizona St.
California
Xavier
Oklahoma St.

Last Four In:
Providence
Missouri
Minnesota
Georgetown

First Four Out:
St. John's
Nebraska
Richmond
Tennessee

Next Four Out:
Oregon
Florida St.
Boise St.
Clemson

Third Four Out:
West Virginia
LSU
Dayton
Georgia

Bids By Conference:
Big 12- 7
Pac-12- 6
Big Ten- 6
ACC- 5
American- 5
Big East- 5
Atlantic-10- 5
SEC- 3
Mountain West- 2
WCC- 2