NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.

Spots Available:
Locks: 34 (barring upsets, includes 11 conference winners)
Probably In: 5
Bubble: 14 (for 8 spots)
Probably Out: 9

ACC
The league has four bonafide locks and then a Pitt team that should be fine, despite underpreforming, and a few frantically trying to make it.

Locks: Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, UNC
Probably In: Pitt
On the Bubble: Florida St.
Probably Out: Clemson, NC State
Over / Under: 5.5

American
The new league has five locks and nothing else.

Locks: Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis, SMU
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over/Under: 5

Big East
This year, the Big East has plenty of bubble drama, which, strangely never seemed to happen when it was a larger league.

Locks: Villanova, Creighton
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: Xavier, Georgetown, Providence, St. John's
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 4

Big Ten
I think that the Big Ten is overrated, but we will see come tournament time.

Locks: Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan St., Ohio St., Iowa
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: Minnesota, Nebraska
Probably Out: Indiana
Over / Under: 5.5

Big 12

While they are both fairly close to the cut line, I think that both Baylor and Oklahoma St. will wind up getting in and could do damage come tournament time.

Locks: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa St., Kansas St.
Probably In: Oklahoma St., Baylor
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: West Virginia
Over / Under: 7

Pac-12
Arizona, UCLA, and Colorado are in good shape, and Arizona St. is close to joining them, but Stanford, California, and Oregon, while all in as of now, still need to sure up their resumes.

Locks: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado
Probably In: Arizona St.
On the Bubble: California, Stanford, Oregon
Probably Out: Utah
Over / Under: 6.5

SEC
The big question in the SEC is whether anyone other than Kentucky and Florida will make it.  With several classic bubble teams, at least one should make it.

Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas
Probably Out: Georgia
Over / Under: 3.5

Mountain West
The MWC is way down from last year and completely lacks bubble drama.

Locks: San Diego St., New Mexico
Probably In:
On the Bubble: 
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 2

Atlantic Ten
After beating St. Joe's today, I feel comfortable moving George Washington to a lock.  St. Joe's should soon join them.

Locks: St. Louis, VCU, Massachusetts, George Washington
Probably In: St. Joe's
On the Bubble: Dayton
Probably Out: Richmond
Over / Under: 5.5

Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
Wichita St. and Gonzaga are the only teams from Mid-majors that I think will see their names called even without a conference championship.  While I have Toledo solidly in the field as of now, a bad loss would knock them out.


Locks: Wichita St., Gonzaga
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Toledo, Southern Miss