NCAA Turnament Bubble Watch

Unlike ESPN, I will not provide a detailed analysis of my rationale for placing teams in any given spot aside from a brief conference description.  I prefer to save that analysis for "What Will it Take".

EDIT  (12:08 PM 2/23): Maryland should have been listed as "On the Bubble".

Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.

ACC
Duke and Miami are in contention for #1 seeds, while NC State and UNC have very solid RPI numbers that should allow them to make the tournament.  After that, this conference is in a much more perilous position.

Locks: Miami, Duke, NC State
Probably In: UNC
On the Bubble: Virginia, Maryland
Probably Out: Florida St.
Over / Under: 4.5

Big East
At this point, the real question facing the Big East is whether or not it can get an eighth (or even ninth) team into the tournament.

Locks: Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame
Probably In: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
On the Bubble: Villanova, St. John's
Probably Out: Providence
Over / Under: 8

Big Ten
The Big Ten is regarded by most as the toughest conference in basketball, and, consequently, the top teams are cannibalizing each other's seeding.  However, there is little bubble drama in the conference.

Locks: Indiana, Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Minnesota
Probably In: Illinois
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Iowa
Over / Under: 7

Big 12
The Big 12 is quietly having a solid year.  Iowa St.'s win at Baylor tempted me to put them at "probably in", but I will leave them on the bubble for now.  As long as they beat Texas Tech this weekend, they will likely be fine.

Locks: Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In: Oklahoma, Iowa St.
On the Bubble: Baylor
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5

Pac-12
This has been one of the stranger conferences this season, as it just seems that no team wants to win the conference.  It also has plenty of bubble drama.

Locks: Arizona
Probably In: Colorado, Oregon, UCLA
On the Bubble: California, Arizona St.
Probably Out: Stanford
Over / Under: 5

SEC
I am very close to moving Missouri to lock status, but I just have too many fears of bad losses on the road with that team.  What if a team goes from winning the championship one year to missing the tourney the next?

Locks: Florida
Probably In: Missouri
On the Bubble: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama
Probably Out: Arkansas
Over / Under: 4.5

Mountain West
The Mountain West is one of the most confusing conferences in America, as it seems that anything truly can happen on any given night.  Look at Wyoming, who was one of the last undefeated teams, but is nowhere to be seen now.

Locks: New Mexico, Colorado St., UNLV
Probably In: San Diego St.
On the Bubble: Boise St.
Probably Out: Air Force
Over / Under: 4.5

Atlantic Ten
Saint Louis's upset win at Butler last night complicates things somewhat.  While it does have some questionable losses, Butler's resume is still in lock status.

Locks: Butler, St. Louis
Probably In: VCU
On the Bubble: La Salle, Temple
Probably Out: Massachusetts, Charlotte
Over / Under: 4

Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
These conferences have a few great teams and then a bunch of question marks.

Locks: Gonzaga, Creighton, Wichita St., Memphis
Likely In: Middle Tennessee St.
On the Bubble: Belmont, St. Mary's, Indiana St.
Likely Out: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Ohio, Northern Iowa, BYU, Bucknell