NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

Unlike ESPN, I will not provide a detailed analysis of my rationale for placing teams in any given spot aside from a brief conference description.  I prefer to save that analysis for "What Will it Take".

UPDATE (2:11 AM 2/14): Creighton is "Probably In", not a "Lock".

Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.

ACC
Florida St. is now officially done after a loss to lowly Virginia Tech.

Locks: Miami, Duke, NC State
Probably In: UNC
On the Bubble: Virginia, Maryland
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 5

Big East
At this point, the real question facing the Big East is whether or not it can get an eighth (or even ninth) team into the tournament.  Cincinnati also would be wise to get another quality win.  There is also no longer any reason to keep Pittsburgh off the "Lock" line.

Locks: Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
Probably In: Cincinnati
On the Bubble: Villanova, St. John's
Probably Out: Providence
Over / Under: 8

Big Ten
Iowa is barely hanging on to its spot in the Bubble Watch after a loss at Nebraska.

Locks: Indiana, Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Minnesota
Probably In: Illinois
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Iowa
Over / Under: 7

Big 12
Iowa St.'s rout of Texas Tech moves them to "Probably In", while Oklahoma's impressive win at Baylor makes them a "Lock"

Locks: Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Oklahoma
Probably In: Iowa St.
On the Bubble: Baylor
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5

Pac-12
I considered kicking Stanford off, but I left them on; with that said, they absolutely need to beat Colorado next week to have a chance.  Oregon still needs a little more to lock it up.

Locks: Arizona
Probably In: Colorado, Oregon, UCLA
On the Bubble: California, Arizona St.
Probably Out: Stanford
Over / Under: 5

SEC
I should add Tennessee to the "Probably Out" category.  It will take a lot for Tennessee to go to the Tournament, but it is possible.

Locks: Florida
Probably In: Missouri
On the Bubble: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama
Probably Out: Arkansas, Tennessee
Over / Under: 3.5

Mountain West
San Diego St. avoided its last potential chance for a bad loss before the MWC Tournament.  At this point, I feel comfortable moving them to a "Lock".

Locks: New Mexico, Colorado St., UNLV, San Diego St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Boise St.
Probably Out: Air Force
Over / Under: 4.5

Atlantic Ten
After a blowout loss at home to Temple, Charlotte is done.  La Salle is also elevated to "Probably In", but a loss to Duquenese would send it right back.

Locks: Butler, St. Louis
Probably In: VCU, La Salle
On the Bubble: Temple
Probably Out: Massachusetts
Over / Under: 4.5

Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
The AP Poll can subconsciously affect voters, so I have bumped Louisiana Tech up to "On the Bubble" after its first ranking since the 1980's.

Locks: Gonzaga, Wichita St., Memphis
Likely In: Middle Tennessee St., St. Mary's, Creighton
On the Bubble: Belmont, Indiana St., Louisiana Tech
Likely Out: Akron, BYU, Bucknell