NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

Unlike ESPN, I will not provide a detailed analysis of my rationale for placing teams in any given spot aside from a brief conference description.  I prefer to save that analysis for "What Will it Take".

UPDATE (2:11 AM 2/14): Creighton is "Probably In", not a "Lock".

Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.

ACC
UNC's win over NC State is a great win for a team that was barely in the "Probably In" category, but it was not enough to move them to "Lock".

Locks: Miami, Duke, NC State
Probably In: UNC
On the Bubble: Virginia, Maryland
Probably Out: Florida St.
Over / Under: 5

Big East
At this point, the real question facing the Big East is whether or not it can get an eighth (or even ninth) team into the tournament.

Locks: Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame
Probably In: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
On the Bubble: Villanova, St. John's
Probably Out: Providence
Over / Under: 8

Big Ten
Iowa is barely hanging on to its spot in the Bubble Watch after a loss at Nebraska.

Locks: Indiana, Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Minnesota
Probably In: Illinois
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Iowa
Over / Under: 7

Big 12
Iowa St.'s rout of Texas Tech moves them to "Probably In", while Oklahoma's impressive win at Baylor makes them a "Lock"

Locks: Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Oklahoma
Probably In: Iowa St.
On the Bubble: Baylor
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5

Pac-12
I considered kicking Stanford off, but I left them on; with that said, they absolutely need to beat Colorado next week to have a chance.  Oregon still needs a little more to lock it up.

Locks: Arizona
Probably In: Colorado, Oregon, UCLA
On the Bubble: California, Arizona St.
Probably Out: Stanford
Over / Under: 5

SEC
What did 9 total overtimes in the SEC Saturday teach us about the SEC Bubble?  Nothing!  Missouri missed a chance to move to a "Lock" at Kentucky.

Locks: Florida
Probably In: Missouri
On the Bubble: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama
Probably Out: Arkansas
Over / Under: 3.5

Mountain West
San Diego St. avoided its last potential chance for a bad loss before the MWC Tournament.  At this point, I feel comfortable moving them to a "Lock".

Locks: New Mexico, Colorado St., UNLV, San Diego St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Boise St.
Probably Out: Air Force
Over / Under: 4.5

Atlantic Ten
Xavier was always a bit of a stretch, and its loss to VCU eliminates it from contention.  Meanwhile, VCU stays in the "Probably In" category.

Locks: Butler, St. Louis
Probably In: VCU
On the Bubble: La Salle, Temple
Probably Out: Massachusetts, Charlotte
Over / Under: 4.5

Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
Creighton is really scaring me, and they are now "Probably In".  St. Mary's moves to "Likely In" after moving past Creighton.  We bid goodbye to Northern Iowa and Ohio after Bracket Busters losses.

Locks: Gonzaga, Wichita St., Memphis
Likely In: Middle Tennessee St., St. Mary's, Creighton
On the Bubble: Belmont, Indiana St.
Likely Out: Akron, Louisiana Tech, BYU, Bucknell