NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

HAPPY SELECTION SUNDAY!!!


NOTE: As no bubble teams play Sunday, this will be my final Bubble Watch update of 2014.
Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.

Spots Available:
Locks: 43 (barring upsets, includes 11 conference winners)
Probably In: 2
Bubble: 4 (for 2 spots)
Probably Out: 4

ACC
NC State's resume actually stacks up very well against many bubble teams, but it will probably wind up being a little too little too late.

Locks: Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, UNC, Pitt
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Florida St.
Probably Out: NC State
Over / Under: 5.5

American
The new league has five locks and nothing else.

Locks: Louisville (auto-bid), Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis, SMU
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over/Under: 5

Big East
Xavier is probably in after the bubble did not shrink, even though it has dropped to my Last Four In.  We could debate all day what would have happened had Providence not won the Big East, but it did, so it is in.

Locks: Villanova, Creighton, Providence (auto-bid)
Probably In: Xavier
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 4

Big Ten
Nebraska is still reliant on the rest of the bubble, but I feel as if there are only about 6, maybe 7 or 8 true bubble teams.  After Providence's win, there is less cushion, so I am moving them back to the bubble.

Locks: Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan St., Ohio St., Iowa
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Nebraska, Minnesota
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 6

Big 12
There is nothing to say here.

Locks: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa St. (auto-bid), Kansas St., Baylor, Oklahoma St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 7

Pac-12
Time to lock up Arizona St., as no one has rushed to usurp its spot.  Meanwhile, California's low RPI will likely keep it from dancing.

Locks: Arizona, UCLA (auto-bid), Colorado, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: California
Over / Under: 6.5

SEC
Tennessee passes the eye test and has beat all fellow bubble teams in the SEC of late.  There is little chance that it will miss the tournament at this point.  Meanwhile, Georgia missed its last opportunity for a quality win today, and Arkansas has been passed by teams like NC State, and it has a near-70 RPI.

Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Probably In: Tennessee
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Arkansas
Over / Under: 3

Mountain West
The MWC is way down from last year and completely lacks bubble drama.

Locks: San Diego St., New Mexico (auto-bid)
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 2

Atlantic Ten
St. Joe's is a lock, as nothing bad can happen playing VCU.  Either it will get a big win or it will have a loss to a very good team.  Dayton, meanwhile, will likely wind up as the last team in on my final bracket tomorrow and could very well become the first team to play a home NCAA Tournament game, at least in the modern era.

Locks: St. Louis, VCU, Massachusetts, George Washington, St. Joe's
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Dayton
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5

Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
I take back what I said yesterday about Southern Miss.  Its gaudy RPI will give it a shot, however small it is.  Meanwhile, things are not looking good for Louisiana Tech, who lost to Tulsa today and who does not have the overall resume that Southern Miss does.  I have BYU as a lock, despite ESPN's Lunardi saying that it is right on the bubble (his last team in).  Their resume tells me that they should get in fairly easily.

Tickets Punched: Harvard, Mercer, Coastal Carolina, Delaware, Wichita St., Manhattan, Eastern Kentucky, Wofford, Milwaukee, Mount St. Mary's, North Dakota St., Gonzaga, American, Tulsa, Albany, Texas Southern, NC Central, Western Michigan, Weber St., Stephen F. Austin, New Mexico St., Cal Poly
Locks: BYU, Wichita St., Gonzaga
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Southern Miss