NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.

Spots Available:
Locks: 37 (barring upsets, includes 11 conference winners)
Probably In: 5
Bubble: 10 (for 6 spots)
Probably Out: 9

ACC
Pitt is safe unless the bubble shrinks and it has a terrible loss.  Florida St. will need a strong showing in Greensboro to make it, while NC State and Maryland are far on the periphery of this talk and would likely need to make the championship game to have a shot.

Locks: Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, UNC
Probably In: Pitt
On the Bubble: Florida St.
Probably Out: NC State, Maryland
Over / Under: 5

American
The new league has five locks and nothing else.

Locks: Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis, SMU
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over/Under: 5

Big East
Georgetown is done after losing to DePaul; meanwhile, Xavier, Providence, and St. John's are all right on the cut line.

Locks: Villanova, Creighton
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Xavier, Providence, St. John's
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 3.5

Big Ten
By virtue of getting a bye, Nebraska is virtually immune to a bad loss, so I am moving them to Probably In.  Watch out for Illinois, a team that is playing much better basketball and could make things interesting with a win over Indiana and an upset of Michigan.

Locks: Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan St., Ohio St., Iowa
Probably In: Nebraska
On the Bubble: Minnesota
Probably Out: Illinois
Over / Under: 6.5

Big 12
Now, Oklahoma St. will not have a bad loss, so I have gone ahead and locked it into the tournament.

Locks: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa St., Kansas St., Baylor, Oklahoma St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: West Virginia
Over / Under: 7

Pac-12
Let's keep an eye on Utah as a very fringe bubble team that could make a run in the Pac-12 tournament to make things close.

Locks: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado
Probably In: Arizona St., Oregon
On the Bubble: California, Stanford
Probably Out: Utah
Over / Under: 6.5

SEC
Missouri is playing such terrible basketball that I don't see how it could make the tournament.  It looks as if the possible Tennessee-Arkansas could be a de facto play-in game to the First Four.

Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Tennessee, Arkansas
Probably Out: Georgia, Missouri
Over / Under: 3

Mountain West
The MWC is way down from last year and completely lacks bubble drama.

Locks: San Diego St., New Mexico
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 2

Atlantic Ten
Richmond is done, and St. Joe's is getting dangerously close to the bubble, but still has some cushion.  Dayton probably needs a win or two to go home for the First Four.

Locks: St. Louis, VCU, Massachusetts, George Washington
Probably In: St. Joe's
On the Bubble: Dayton
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5

Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
BYU will still make the tournament, but I am only leaving it as a lock because I don't want to demote it from lockdom.

Tickets Punched: Harvard, Mercer, Coastal Carolina, Delaware, Wichita St., Manhattan, Eastern Kentucky, Wofford, Milwaukee, Mount St. Mary's, North Dakota St., Gonzaga, American
Locks: BYU, Wichita St., Gonzaga
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech