NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.

Spots Available:
Locks: 40 (barring upsets, includes 11 conference winners)
Probably In: 4
Bubble: 7 (for 3 spots)
Probably Out: 4

ACC
The last need for Pitt to feel 100% safe was a quality win, which they got today.  Florida St. remains squarely on the bubble despite losing to Virginia, a top-seed contender.  NC State is still out for now, but they would be right on the cut line with a win Saturday over Duke.

Locks: Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, UNC, Pitt
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Florida St.
Probably Out: NC State
Over / Under: 5.5

American
The new league has five locks and nothing else.

Locks: Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis, SMU
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over/Under: 5

Big East
After seeing other results, it seems like it will be very hard for St. John's to make the NCAA Tournament this year.

Locks: Villanova, Creighton
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Xavier, Providence
Probably Out: St. John's
Over / Under: 3.5

Big Ten
Nebraska is still reliant on the rest of the bubble, but I feel as if there are only about 6, maybe 7 or 8 true bubble teams.  They played well today, despite losing, so I will keep them at Probably In for now.  Illinois would take a miracle to make it to the tournament.

Locks: Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan St., Ohio St., Iowa
Probably In: Nebraska
On the Bubble: Minnesota
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 6.5

Big 12
There is nothing to say here.

Locks: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa St., Kansas St., Baylor, Oklahoma St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 7

Pac-12
Stanford has moved itself from the bubble to lockdom within a couple of days.  Arizona St. and Oregon are also making the tournament.  The only drama resides in Berkeley, California.

Locks: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon
Probably In: Arizona St.
On the Bubble: California
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 6.5

SEC
Missouri is done.  Georgia could have a shot with a trip to the SEC championship game and a close loss to Florida there.  Tennessee should be fine, now that it is safely into the semifinals and cannot have a bad loss (it plays Florida in all likelihood).  Arkansas, meanwhile, is on the bubble after a bad loss to South Carolina.

Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Probably In: Tennessee
On the Bubble: Arkansas
Probably Out: Georgia
Over / Under: 3.5

Mountain West
The MWC is way down from last year and completely lacks bubble drama.

Locks: San Diego St., New Mexico
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 2

Atlantic Ten
Nothing changes as a result of today's victory for St. Joe's over Dayton.  They are not yet a lock, while Dayton is right on the bubble.

Locks: St. Louis, VCU, Massachusetts, George Washington
Probably In: St. Joe's
On the Bubble: Dayton
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5

Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
Southern Miss is now done after getting routed by Louisiana Tech today.  Even as the the winner, Louisiana Tech would be better off taking care of business tomorrow.  I am really worried about keeping BYU as a lock, but I don't want to demote a lock.

Tickets Punched: Harvard, Mercer, Coastal Carolina, Delaware, Wichita St., Manhattan, Eastern Kentucky, Wofford, Milwaukee, Mount St. Mary's, North Dakota St., Gonzaga, American
Locks: BYU, Wichita St., Gonzaga
Probably In:
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Louisiana Tech