Bubble Watch: Bubble Expanding

Over in our Bracketology, we currently have the majority of the 36 at-large bids being consumed by three conferences- the ACC, Big 12, and the suddenly strong SEC.  That SEC was a three-bid league just two years ago (with one even falling in the First Four) and just a five-bid one last year.  This year, it is looking solid for eight with an outside path to nine, or even ten.  It is also worth noting that lock means lock, and we will not put teams in that status if we think that they even need one more win the rest of the way.

NOTE: I will unfortunately not be able to update until Friday due to travel plans.

Math:
Locks: 33 (includes ten auto-bids)
Probably In: 9
Bubble: 11 (for four at-large bids; MTSU projected as an auto-bid)
Probably Out: 6 (includes two auto-bids)

SEC:
Florida is a lock, and Alabama suddenly finds itself having more to worry about.
Locks (7): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Alabama
Probably Out (0):

ACC:
Lock up FSU, promote NC State and Syracuse, and demote Louisville
Locks (6): Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Florida State
Probably In (2): NC State, Virginia Tech
Bubble (2): Louisville, Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Notre Dame

Big 12:
K-State and Texas look better, while Baylor falls towards the cut line.  We also add Oklahoma State to the board.
Locks (4): Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU
Probably In (3): Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas State
Bubble (1): Baylor
Probably Out (1): Oklahoma State

Big East:
Marquette's big win legitimately puts it on the bubble.
Locks (5): Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (1): Marquette
Probably Out (0):

Big Ten:
Time for Penn State to wait and see.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Penn State
Probably Out (1): Nebraska

Pac-12:
Can somebody make sense of the Pac-12?  Please.  Arizona State stays at "Probably In", but USC falls onto the bubble.
Locks (1): Arizona
Probably In (1): Arizona State
Bubble (4): Washington, USC, Utah, UCLA
Probably Out (0):


American:
Nothing to see here unless we have some bid thievery.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):

Atlantic 10:
Well, Davidson, you are back in the picture now following beating Rhode Island at home yesterday.  We just wonder what could have been if you had won that 3 OT game the other night at Saint Bonaventure.  As for Rhode Island, once you are a lock, you stay a lock, and we do not feel that this will be a problem right now, even if the Rams are not inspiring confidence in their team the last couple games.
Locks (1): Rhode Island
Probably In (1): Saint Bonaventure
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Davidson

Mountain West:
Nevada is now a lock, so it's pretty simple for the MWC.  It will be a 1-bid league if Nevada wins the tournament, but, if someone else does, it will get 2 and steal a bid from another conference.
Locks (1): Nevada
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 1

West Coast:
Saint Mary's is very close to a lock.  As long as they win the WCC or lose to Gonzaga or BYU, they will be locked up.  There is still a remote chance of a bad loss.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (1): Saint Mary's
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):

Others:
What happened, MTSU?  And WKU for that matter?
Noteworthy Auto-Bids: Loyola-Chicago
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): MTSU

Probably Out (2): Louisiana,  New Mexico State