Locks: 38 (includes eight auto-bids)
Probably In: 4
Bubble: 6 (for two bids)
Probably Out: 4
SEC:
After beating Auburn, Alabama is assured of a berth in the 2018 field. With Mississippi State and Georgia bowing out in the quarterfinals, the SEC's bubble drama is done.
Locks (8): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky (auto-bid), Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida, Alabama
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
ACC:
Virginia Tech will be fine, but I can't say that about NC State following a loss to Boston College.
Locks (7): Virginia (auto-bid), North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Probably In (2): Louisville, NC State
Bubble (1): Notre Dame
Probably Out (1): Syracuse
Big 12:
Who would ever have thought that Oklahoma would be sitting right on the bubble on Selection Eve? Unlike Alabama, the Sooners were not able to turn around a late season slide in their conference tournament. Their rival from Stillwater also is likely out due to their RPI, even if it has been slightly de-emphasized in recent years. On the positive side, Kansas State has done enough to be safely in the field.
Locks (5): Kansas (auto-bid), Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU, Kansas State
Probably In (1): Texas
Bubble (2): Baylor, Oklahoma
Probably Out (1): Oklahoma State
Big East:
Providence has finally gotten itself fully off the bubble by beating a top 2 seed in Xavier. As for Marquette, I think they didn't do enough, especially as this bubble shrinks a little bit.
Locks (6): Villanova (auto-bid), Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton, Providence
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Marquette
Big Ten:
Penn State has been passed by too many teams at this point. It turns out they needed another win in the Big Ten Tournament.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Pac-12:
Is there any chance the Pac-12 could be a 1-bid league if Arizona beats USC tonight? There are enough bubble teams that I think that is doubtful, but it is not completely out of the question, which is a total embarrassment for a power conference.
Locks (1): Arizona (auto-bid)
Probably In (1): UCLA
Bubble (1): USC
Probably Out (1): Arizona State
American:
Nothing to see here.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Atlantic 10:
The A-10 gave us a bid thief in Davidson. The Wildcats' resume (including the championship game) is now possibly bubble-worthy anyway (but would not have been with a loss today), but they have an auto-bid instead of some other team.
Locks (2): Rhode Island, Saint Bonaventure
Successful Bid Thief (1): Davidson
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will get to send two teams to the NCAA Tournament at the expense of some bubble team. Nevada, while not looking great down the stretch, has done enough for an at-large bid.
Locks (1): Nevada
Successful Bid Thief (1): San Diego State
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
West Coast:
Saint Mary's is actually truly a bubble team. There is little meat on their resume other than a January win at Gonzaga and a strong record, and the bubble has shrunk by two spots due to bid thieves and a few more due to major conference teams playing their way to at-large bids. Nervous times for the Gaels.
Locks (1): Gonzaga (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Saint Mary's
Probably Out (0):
Others:
MTSU's at-large hopes are no longer an academic discussion. Thanks to a stunning quarterfinal loss to Southern Miss, MTSU is in real danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. Will their relative dominance and solid RPI be able to overcome their lack of quality wins?
Noteworthy Auto-Bids: Loyola-Chicago, Murray State, South Dakota State, Bucknell, New Mexico State, Marshall
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): MTSU
Probably Out (0):
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