Math:
Locks: 38 (includes nine auto-bids)
Probably In: 3
Bubble: 8 (for four bids)
Probably Out: 8 (includes two auto-bids)
SEC:
After beating Auburn, Alabama is assured of a berth in the 2018 field. With Mississippi State and Georgia bowing out in the quarterfinals, the SEC's bubble drama is done.
Locks (8): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida, Alabama
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
ACC:
Virginia Tech will be fine, but I can't say that about NC State following a loss to Boston College.
Locks (7): Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Probably In (1): Louisville
Bubble (2): NC State, Notre Dame
Probably Out (1): Syracuse
Big 12:
Who would ever have thought that Oklahoma would be sitting right on the bubble on Selection Eve? Unlike Alabama, the Sooners were not able to turn around a late season slide in their conference tournament. Their rival from Stillwater also is likely out due to their RPI, even if it has been slightly de-emphasized in recent years. On the positive side, Kansas State has done enough to be safely in the field.
Locks (5): Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU, Kansas State
Probably In (1): Texas
Bubble (2): Baylor, Oklahoma
Probably Out (1): Oklahoma State
Big East:
Providence has finally gotten itself fully off the bubble by beating a top 2 seed in Xavier. As for Marquette, I think they didn't do enough, especially as this bubble shrinks a little bit.
Locks (6): Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton, Providence
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Marquette
Big Ten:
Penn State has been passed by too many teams at this point. It turns out they needed another win in the Big Ten Tournament.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Penn State, Nebraska
Pac-12:
Is there any chance the Pac-12 could be a 1-bid league if Arizona beats USC tonight? There are enough bubble teams that I think that is doubtful, but it is not completely out of the question, which is a total embarrassment for a power conference.
Locks (1): Arizona
Probably In (0):
Bubble (3): UCLA, USC, Arizona State
Probably Out (0):
American:
Nothing to see here unless we have some bid thievery.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (1): Memphis
Atlantic 10:
I can't see Davidson getting an at-large, due to the strengthening bubble, but they are just two wins away from securing their own bid. Also, we are going to lock up Saint Bonaventure now that they have avoided the bad losses.
Locks (2): Rhode Island, Saint Bonaventure
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Davidson
Alive Bid Thieves (1): Saint Joseph's
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will get to send two teams to the NCAA Tournament at the expense of some bubble team. Nevada, while not looking great down the stretch, has done enough for an at-large bid.
Locks (1): Nevada
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (2): New Mexico, San Diego State (one guaranteed to steal a bid)
West Coast:
Saint Mary's is not nearly as close as a lock as I thought after their quarterfinal win. Too many bubble teams have won games, and the bubble has kept shrinking. I am not yet demoting them to the Bubble, but I may after re-evaluating resumes tonight.
Locks (1): Gonzaga (auto-bid)
Probably In (1): Saint Mary's
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Others:
MTSU's at-large hopes are no longer an academic discussion. Thanks to a stunning quarterfinal loss to Southern Miss, MTSU is in real danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. Will their relative dominance and solid RPI be able to overcome their lack of quality wins?
Noteworthy Auto-Bids: Loyola-Chicago, Murray State, South Dakota State, Bucknell
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): MTSU
Probably Out (2): Louisiana, New Mexico State
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