Over in our Bracketology, we currently have the majority of the 36 at-large bids being consumed by three conferences- the ACC, Big 12, and the suddenly strong SEC. That SEC was a three-bid league just two years ago (with one even falling in the First Four) and just a five-bid one last year. This year, it is looking solid for eight with an outside path to nine, or even ten. It is also worth noting that lock means lock, and we will not put teams in that status if we think that they even need one more win the rest of the way.
Math:
Locks: 31 (includes ten auto-bids)
Probably In: 13 (includes one auto-bid)
Bubble: 7 (for three at-large bids)
Probably Out: 11 (includes three auto-bids)
SEC:
Welcome to lockdom, Texas A&M, becoming the sixth SEC team assured of a bid to the 2018 Big Dance! Florida really probably is there already, but we are being cautious. One more win and we will lock them in. Alabama isn't as close, but is on the right side of things for now. Mississippi State and Georgia need big runs in Saint Louis next week, and the other four need to win it.
Locks (6): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M
Probably In (2): Alabama, Florida
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Mississippi State, Georgia
Over/Under: 8.5
ACC:
Louisville, you were so close! That would have done it, if not for the weirdest ending I have seen since that Texas A&M Tournament comeback a few years ago. Virginia Tech and Florida State will be playing to become locks tomorrow, while NC State and Louisville have a crucial battle, where the winner will be in good shape, but the loser could be on shaky footing. All of a sudden, Notre Dame actually looks better than Syracuse, but they would both be wise to take advantage of opportunities for huge wins this week.
Locks (5): Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Probably In (3): Florida State, Louisville, Virginia Tech
Bubble (1): NC State
Probably Out (2): Notre Dame, Syracuse
Over/Under: 9
Big 12:
At least Oklahoma did not lose to Iowa State, which may have spelled disaster. We are going to have at-large teams with sub-.500 conference records this year, but would 7-11 have spelled trouble for the Sooners? I guess we will never know, but they are looking much better now, though I am holding off on pressing the 'lock' button. Bubble Watchers should be excited for that Baylor-KState battle tomorrow!
Locks (4): Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU
Probably In (2): Oklahoma, Baylor
Bubble (2): Texas, Kansas State
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 7
Big East:
Providence, avoid being upset by the Johnnies tomorrow, and I will pull the trigger. Marquette also has a good opportunity to pick up a win over a tournament team in Creighton.
Locks (5): Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Marquette
Over/Under: 6
Big Ten:
Nebraska could not get it done against Michigan. Despite the strong record, there is not a whole lot on the Cornhuskers' resume. Unfortunately, it does not look good for them. Penn State, on the other hand, is now much closer to the cut line following a thrilling victory over Ohio State (for the third time this year) in the quarterfinals at Madison Square Garden. Tomorrow, they have an opportunity to knock off Purdue and clearly bust their way into the Field of 68.
Locks (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Penn State
Probably Out (1): Nebraska
Over/Under: 4.5
Pac-12:
For the most part, the Pac-12's contenders did what they needed to do on Thursday night. Arizona State will attain lock status if it can win at home against Stanford tomorrow afternoon, while USC will have a chance to move closer to a bid against fellow bubbler and cross-town rival UCLA. Washington and Utah just need to keep winning, and then we can talk, but, unfortunately, barring something unforeseen, I think it's over for Oregon.
Locks (1): Arizona
Probably In (2): Arizona State, USC
Bubble (3): Washington, Utah, UCLA
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 3.5
American:
Nothing to see here unless we have some bid thievery.
Locks (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 3
Atlantic 10:
Well, Davidson, you are back in the picture now following beating Rhode Island at home today. We just wonder what could have been if you had won that 3 OT game the other night at Saint Bonaventure. As for Rhode Island, once you are a lock, you stay a lock, and we do not feel that this will be a problem right now, even if the Rams are not inspiring confidence in their team the last couple games.
Locks (1): Rhode Island
Probably In (1): Saint Bonaventure
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Davidson
Over/Under: 2
Mountain West:
Nevada is now a lock, so it's pretty simple for the MWC. It will be a 1-bid league if Nevada wins the tournament, but, if someone else does, it will get 2 and steal a bid from another conference.
Locks (1): Nevada
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 1
West Coast:
Yet another season, yet another year where Gonzaga and St. Mary's will likely represent the WCC in March Madness. Depending on brackets, a win Saturday may lift the Gaels to lock status as well.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (1): Saint Mary's
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Over/Under: 2
Others:
The committee has not been kind to teams outside the Power 7+3 in recent years. MTSU is the most likely to receive an at-large, as they have developed a mini-power in Murfreesboro, but they were underseeded last year (suggesting they likely would not have received an at-large had they failed to secure an auto-bid). Is there any reason to suggest that this year will be any different, other than being in the AP Top 25? The Blue Raiders would be better off just grabbing the auto-bid instead of leaving this to the committee. With that said, there resume is now impressive enough to warrant "probably in" status, even if they fail to win the C-USA Tournament.
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): MTSU
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (4): Western Kentucky, Louisiana, Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State
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