Assuming that Ole Miss takes care of business against South Carolina tomorrow, it will be time to lock up the Rebels. An LSU win over Auburn would really move the Bayou Bengals in the right direction as well. Look out for Vanderbilt to sneak in if they can somehow get through the bottom half of the bracket and give Kentucky a game.
Locks (3): Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia
Probably In (1): Ole Miss
Bubble (2): LSU, Texas A&M
Probably Out (1): Vanderbilt
Watch Out (1): Florida
ACC:
Tomorrow, either NC State will possess two wins over Duke or it will have a loss that does no damage to its resume (and may even help some metrics). Therefore, there is nothing NC State can do at this point to play itself out- Welcome to lockdom, Wolfpack! Miami may not have played well against Virginia Tech, but all that matters is that they won. Meanwhile, Pitt is done.
Locks (6): Virginia, Duke, UNC, Louisville, Notre Dame, NC State
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Miami
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Big 12:
Texas is probably going to be fine, and a win over Iowa St. tomorrow may be able to move them all the way from Bubble to Lock, but I will leave them there for now. K-State may be the best team to finish with a losing record in a long, long time.
Locks (6): Kansas, Iowa St., Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Texas
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Big Ten:
Iowa is a lock at this point (and some would say that they should have been a lock a while ago). Indiana and Purdue, meanwhile, are both in for now, but dangerously close to that cut line. Illinois, on the other hand, is slipping, and it would need a major showing in Indy to get in.
Locks (5): Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan St., Ohio St., Iowa
Probably In (0):
Bubble (2): Indiana, Purdue
Probably Out (1): Illinois
Watch Out (1): Michigan
Pac-12:
After a weekend where nothing really hurt them, there is no way that Oregon can miss out on the NCAA Tournament. Stanford, however, will need a massive run next week to have any chance at returning to the Tournament.
Locks (3): Arizona, Utah, Oregon
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): UCLA
Probably Out (1): Stanford
Watch Out (0):
Big East:
If it wasn't a lock before, giving up over 100 points to Villanova won't get it there. Still, St. John's should be fine.
Locks (5): Villanova, Butler, Georgetown, Providence, Xavier
Probably In (1): St. John's
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
American:
Cincy is clear enough of the bubble that calling it "Probably In" would be more accurate as of now. After all, most of these "Bubble" teams are going to ultimately get in.
Locks (1): SMU
Probably In (1): Cincinnati
Bubble (2): Tulsa, Temple
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (2): Memphis, UConn
Missouri Valley:
Locks (2): Northern Iowa, Wichita St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Mountain West:
Does anything ever change in this league?
Locks (1): San Diego St.
Probably In (1): Colorado St.
Bubble (1): Boise St.
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Atlantic-10:
VCU and Dayton don't seem to like being locks very much, but they are. Davidson remains the best chance for a third bid, with Richmond also a possibility.
Locks (2): VCU, Dayton
Probably In (0):
Bubble (2): Davidson, Richmond
Probably Out (1): Rhode Island
Watch Out (0):
West Coast:
After losing to Gonzaga in the WCC final, BYU has a long wait in store until it finally gets to know its fate on Sunday. It really could go either way, and they are right on the cut line.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): BYU
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Other Contenders:
I guess I can throw Murray St. into the group of teams that are probably out. Anyone else? Maybe Buffalo and that gaudy RPI.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (4): Wofford, Old Dominion, Murray St., Buffalo
Totals:
Locks: 35
Probably In: 4
Bubble: 13 (for 8 spots)
Probably Out: 8 (Wofford would get an auto-bid as of today)
Watch Out: 4
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