Bubble Watch

SEC:
After Alabama's loss at Vanderbilt, it appears as if the SEC only has 6 legitimate potential tournament teams.  Georgia has been locked up, and Ole Miss and Texas A&M are very close, while LSU is moving in the right direction.  If a 7th SEC team were to somehow make it, it would be Vanderbilt, who has won 6 of 8 after a disappointing start to conference play and could get back to .500 in league play with two wins this week.  Its advanced stats are around 40, but it will be unable to get in if it can't improve its #96 RPI, which is why I'm not even willing to go Probably Out at this time.
Locks (3): Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia
Probably In (2): Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Bubble (1): LSU
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (2): Florida, Vanderbilt

ACC:
It was a bad weekend for the ACC, as NC State and Pitt lost to vastly inferior opponents, while Miami just missed a chance at a big win.  With this weekend's results, for the first time, I am predicting that no ACC team, other than the five who may all be Top 4 seeds, will make the NCAA Tournament if it were to be seeded today.
Locks (5): Virginia, Duke, UNC, Louisville, Notre Dame
Probably In (0):
Bubble (3): NC State, Pittsburgh, Miami
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0): 

Big 12:
You may ask how I have Kansas St. on the bubble.  It's a fair question, as they are just a .500 team overall, but if they beat Texas on Saturday and win a game or two in the Big 12 Tournament, it would be hard to leave them out.  At that point, their RPI would be in the 60s, but they would have a 9-9 record in the murderer's row that is the Big 12 with wins over Kansas, Iowa St., Baylor, Oklahoma St., Texas, Oklahoma (twice), and Purdue, all teams currently projected as NCAA Tournament teams.
Locks (5): Kansas, Iowa St., Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia
Probably In (1): Oklahoma St.
Bubble (2): Texas, Kansas St.
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):

Big Ten:
The Big Ten has perhaps the most bubble drama of any conference, but does not appear to have anybody right on the cut line as of now.  Indiana, Ohio St., Michigan St., and Iowa are all somewhat clear of it, Purdue probably would be OK were today Selection Sunday, and Illinois is firmly on the outside looking in.
Locks (2): Wisconsin, Maryland
Probably In (2): Indiana, Ohio St.
Bubble (4): Michigan St., Iowa, Illinois, Purdue
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Michigan

Pac-12:
At this point, Oregon clearly has the advantage over the other two Pac-12 bubble teams.  Its potential 13-5 record in a power conference would be tough for the committee to overlook in favor of a Stanford or UCLA.
Locks (2): Arizona, Utah
Probably In (0):
Bubble (3): Stanford, UCLA, Oregon
Probably Out (0): 
Watch Out (1): Arizona St.

Big East:
St. John's appears to be fine, but let me just wait one more game before moving them to Probably In.  But, my guess is that they are a lock on Selection Sunday.  Seton Hall, meanwhile, is not going to make the NCAA Tournament, but remains dangerous in Madison Square Garden.
Locks (5): Villanova, Butler, Georgetown, Providence, Xavier
Probably In (0): 
Bubble (1): St. John's
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0): Seton Hall

American:
Is it time to consider the idea that the defending national champs may be able to get an at-large, after all?  UConn has quietly been improving its resume of late and is moving closer to the bubble.  A big run in Hartford, even if it does not end with a championship, may be enough.
Locks (1): SMU
Probably In (1): Temple
Bubble (3): Cincinnati, Tulsa, UConn
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Memphis

Missouri Valley:
Locks (2): Northern Iowa, Wichita St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):

Mountain West:
San Diego St. was not all that hurt by losing to Boise St., but the Broncos (who, contrarily to popular belief, do not play on blue hardwood) were immensely helped by that win.  It took them from the wrong side of the bubble to the right side of it.
Locks (1): San Diego St.
Probably In (1): Colorado St.
Bubble (1): Boise St.
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):

Atlantic-10:
Davidson is right on the cut line and appears to be the A-10's best shot at getting a third bid to this year's NCAA Tournament, but pretty much anything could happen during its tournament next week.
Locks (2): VCU, Dayton
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Davidson
Probably Out (2): UMass, Rhode Island
Watch Out (0):

West Coast:
BYU may have just cost the WCC a 1-seed this year, but given it the status of being a multi-bid league.  The Cougars are now in my projected Last Four In, a big change from a few days ago.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): BYU
Probably Out (1): St. Mary's
Watch Out (0):

Other Contenders:
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Wofford, Old Dominion

Totals:
Locks: 29
Probably In: 7
Bubble: 20 (for 11 at-large spots)
Probably Out: 5 (Iona would get an auto-bid as of today)
Watch Out: 6