With the bubble shrinking a bit, Texas A&M appears pretty clearly on the wrong side of the bubble, which would have been unthinkable two weeks ago. Meanwhile, it could really go either way for Ole Miss. LSU is not certain, but I am reasonably confident that their wins (and the eye test) will get them in.
Locks (3): Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia
Probably In (1): LSU
Bubble (1): Ole Miss
Probably Out (1): Texas A&M
Watch Out (0):
ACC:
NC State is fine, even with a loss to Duke in the ACC quarters. Miami will just have to wait and see after bowing out of Greensboro in a close quarterfinal loss to Notre Dame, but their RPI is on the low side for an at-large, and all that their resume really has is that one incredible win at Duke.
Locks (6): Virginia, Duke, UNC, Louisville, Notre Dame, NC State
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Miami
Watch Out (0):
Big 12:
Is Oklahoma St. really safe? I think so, but I have to risk it a bit, as I don't rescind locks. Meanwhile, I think Texas will make it (and may bump them to Probably In at some point before Sunday), but it is not certain.
Locks (6): Kansas, Iowa St., Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Texas
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Big Ten:
My guess is that both Indiana and Purdue make it, but they both remain bubble teams. Beating Maryland tonight would take the Hoosiers off the bubble.
Locks (5): Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan St., Ohio St., Iowa
Probably In (0):
Bubble (2): Indiana, Purdue
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Pac-12:
With Stanford's close loss to Utah, Stanford has no more opportunities to make a move and will not make the NCAA Tournament in 2015. UCLA is right on the bubble and nearly grabbed a massive win tonight.
Locks (3): Arizona, Utah, Oregon
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): UCLA
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Big East:
With how other teams in other conferences have done, St. John's ends all bubble drama for the Big East by joining the others as locks.
Locks (6): Villanova, Butler, Georgetown, Providence, Xavier, St. John's
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
American:
Can UConn beat SMU and get in? We will see, but it is highly unlikely that they will get in if they don't. Tulsa is now pretty clearly on the wrong side of things.
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Temple
Probably Out (2): UConn, Tulsa
Watch Out (0):
Missouri Valley:
Locks (2): Northern Iowa, Wichita St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Mountain West:
Wyoming has shocked the world and taken away an at-large bid. But, it won't be Boise's in all probability.
Locks (3): San Diego St., Colorado St., Wyoming (by virtue of AAC Title)
Probably In (1): Boise St.
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Atlantic-10:
A big come-from-behind win over La Salle keeps Davidson on the right side of the bubble for now. A win over VCU tomorrow would likely do it. Meanwhile, VCU's stopping-the-bleeding win over intra-city rival Richmond stops the worrying about the sliding Rams. Richmond is now on life-support, Probably Out, while it awaits the committee.
Locks (2): VCU, Dayton
Probably In (1): Davidson
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Richmond
Watch Out (0):
West Coast:
BYU is not a lock, but they do appear to be on the right side of the bubble ahead of tomorrow night.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (1): BYU
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Other Contenders:
I guess I can throw Murray St. into the group of teams that are probably out.
Significant Auto-Bids: Wofford, Buffalo, Harvard
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Murray St.
Totals:
Locks: 39
Probably In: 4
Bubble: 7 (for 4 spots)
Probably Out: 6
Watch Out: 0
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