Ole Miss and Texas A&M will most likely be fine, but I want to make sure that they take care of business against middle-tier SEC teams Vanderbilt and Alabama before considering lockdom. Meanwhile, LSU sits firmly on the bubble after losing to Tennessee.
Locks (3): Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia
Probably In (2): Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Bubble (1): LSU
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (2): Florida, Vanderbilt
ACC:
Miami's win over Pitt keeps it right on the bubble, while Pitt is slipping and has been demoted to Probably Out.
Locks (5): Virginia, Duke, UNC, Louisville, Notre Dame
Probably In (0):
Bubble (2): NC State, Miami
Probably Out (1): Pittsburgh
Watch Out (0):
Big 12:
Oklahoma St. took care of business against bottom-feeder TCU, giving the Big 12 its 6th lock, the most of any conference. Texas is an interesting case, with its strong computer numbers (both advanced stats and RPI), but its poor conference record and, all things considered, lack of quality wins. Kansas St. is kind of in an opposite situation, with several impressive wins, but a pathetic out of conference resume with several bad losses.
Locks (6): Kansas, Iowa St., Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Texas
Probably Out (1): Kansas St.
Watch Out (0):
Big Ten:
After re-evaluating resumes, Michigan St. gets an unusual bump all the way from Bubble to Lock. Ohio St. joins them there, while Indiana falls from Probably In to the bubble. Iowa has also been bumped up to Probably In
Locks (4): Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan St., Ohio St.
Probably In (1): Iowa
Bubble (3): Indiana, Illinois, Purdue
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Michigan
Pac-12:
Oregon's resume is actually really good at this point, and it would be hard to see the Ducks missing the NCAA Tournament. The same cannot be said for Stanford and UCLA, however.
Locks (2): Arizona, Utah
Probably In (1): Oregon
Bubble (2): Stanford, UCLA
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Arizona St.
Big East:
It's not a lock yet, but St. John's is clearly moving in the right direction and is now Probably In. The Big East is close to completely wrapping up bubble drama, with Seton Hall now completely off the page, as I cannot even justify telling you to watch out for them anymore.
Locks (5): Villanova, Butler, Georgetown, Providence, Xavier
Probably In (1): St. John's
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
American:
I thought Temple was getting pretty safe, but further review of its resume proves that the Owls are much closer to the bubble than initially thought. If Temple, Cincinnati, and Tulsa all lose this weekend (and they are all playing solid opponents) and disappoint in Hartford, the possibility exists for the American to be a one-bid league. Meanwhile, the defending champs are done as far as an at-large is concerned after a home loss to Memphis.
Locks (1): SMU
Probably In (0):
Bubble (3): Cincinnati, Tulsa, Temple
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (2): Memphis, UConn
Missouri Valley:
Locks (2): Northern Iowa, Wichita St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Mountain West:
Even though most projected 8-seeds 10 days from Selection Sunday are locks, CSU still cannot be there due to the unpredictability of how the committee treats resumes with a very high RPI (20s in this case) and not much else.
Locks (1): San Diego St.
Probably In (1): Colorado St.
Bubble (1): Boise St.
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Atlantic-10:
That was a big win for Davidson, who is looking more and more like a NCAA Tournament team. Meanwhile, all of a sudden, Richmond looks like the A-10's best chance for a 4th team.
Locks (2): VCU, Dayton
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Davidson
Probably Out (2): Richmond, Rhode Island
Watch Out (0):
West Coast:
St. Mary's is now done, leaving the WCC with just two hopes for the Big Dance.
Locks (1): Gonzaga
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): BYU
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): St. Mary's
Other Contenders:
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Wofford, Old Dominion
Totals:
Locks: 32
Probably In: 6
Bubble: 15 (for 9 spots)
Probably Out: 4 (Wofford would get an auto-bid as of today)
Watch Out: 7
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