SEC:
South Carolina is a lock ahead of their game tomorrow by virtue of playing Alabama, which would not be a bad loss. We were extra careful after the Gamecocks' late-season collapse to fall to the NIT last year, but that will not happen again. South Carolina is dancing. So is Vanderbilt, who dominated Texas A&M by 25 points today despite not even shooting all that well. A loss to Florida would do nothing to hurt a strong at-large resume, especially since the 'Dores have already beaten the Gators twice. Georgia, meanwhile, may be playing for their lives tomorrow against Kentucky.
Locks (5): Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Georgia
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (2): Alabama, Ole Miss
ACC:
Georgia Tech needed to beat Pitt. They didn't, so they are completely done. Clemson did get one win, but that likely will not be enough following their loss to Duke yesterday. I will leave them at "Probably Out", but it would take a miracle for the football champions to have a chance to add a basketball championship. Syracuse, meanwhile, is at the mercy of everyone else who is still playing. We will have a better feel on them by Saturday.
Locks (9): North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Clemson
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big 12:
Kansas St. is certainly in much better shape following their win over Baylor. They are not 100% safe due to the suddenly strengthening bubble, but they have a shot and will definitely make it with a win over West Virginia tomorrow. After a shocking upset of Kansas, TCU is back in the conversation. The question is if simply a win tomorrow against Iowa St. would be enough for the Horned Frogs or if they need to win the whole Big 12 Tournament. I lean towards the latter, but it would be an interesting conversation.
Locks (5): Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In (1): Kansas St.
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): TCU
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big Ten:
It's time to take Indiana seriously. Illinois and Iowa were not able to get the necessary wins to stay in realistic bubble contention, but Indiana was (against Iowa). Indiana will take on Wisconsin tomorrow in the quarterfinals. A run to the finals would likely be enough for the Hoosiers to salvage a trip to Dayton out of a disappointing season. Also, now that Michigan St. has avoided the disaster against Penn St. and Northwestern against Rutgers, I will finally make the moves on them. Congratulations, Northwestern, for the first time, you are going to the NCAA Tournament!
Locks (7): Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Indiana, Iowa
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Pac-12:
Cal just keeps hanging around, avoiding the horrible loss to Oregon St. yesterday and then picking up an OK win over Utah today. But, tomorrow is when the Golden Bears will really have a chance, as they take on Oregon. For USC, a win over UCLA would seal up an at-large bid. With a loss, I would guess they would still make it, but it would be far from certain.
Locks (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Probably In (1): USC
Bubble (1): Cal
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big East:
Xavier just picked up a massive win with a victory over Butler. I will only bump them to "Probably In" for now because of how many bubble teams are picking up big wins right now. Seton Hall is also closing in on lock status. Providence and Marquette are currently on the right side of the bubble, but not quite as safe as the other two. They are both watching from home now and having to root against fellow bubble teams.
Locks (3): Villanova, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (2): Xavier, Seton Hall
Bubble (2): Providence, Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
American:
The American is very weak this year. Cincinnati and SMU are all this league really has to offer in 2017. Houston is not completely out of at-large contention, but the weakness of leagues like the American, A-10, and MWC explains why we are seeing teams with RPIs in the 80s and 90s, ones with barely over .500 records, and squads with conference records as bad as 6-12 in the thick of bubble contention.
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Houston
Alive Bid Thieves (5): East Carolina, UCF, Memphis, Tulsa, Connecticut
Missouri Valley:
Wichita St. made things simple by locking up the auto-bid in Arch Madness. As for Illinois St., it really could go either way, and that will largely depend on how the other bubble teams (the ones still playing this week) fare.
Locks (1): Wichita St. (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Illinois St.
Probably Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will almost certainly be a one-bid league this year. Nevada's bubble case isn't totally non-existent, but it can make this simple by winning the MWC Tournament this week. But, they are still more likely out than in if they lose in Las Vegas.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Nevada
Alive Bid Thieves (4): Everyone still alive not named Nevada
Atlantic-10:
Tomorrow, Rhode Island will face 5th seeded St. Bonaventure. Winning that game alone is probably not enough (but losing it would be a disaster), but a potential win over Dayton on Saturday could change everything for Rhode Island. Bubble teams should also be on high alert for a bid thief out of the A-10 this year.
Locks (2): Dayton, VCU
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Rhode Island
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (5): Davidson, St. Bonaventure, George Mason, Richmond, George Washington
West Coast:
Now that we know that Gonzaga and St. Mary's will play tonight in the WCC title game, there is nothing more to watch (for bubble purposes, that is) in the WCC. Gonzaga and St. Mary's will go to the Big Dance, while BYU will hope for a NIT selection.
Locks (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Other Contenders:
UNC-Wilmington did what minor conference teams often have to do- win their conference tournament, instead of leaving it up to the committee. Monmouth, on the other hand, did not get that job done, and it is hard to see how they will get an at-large bid. We now wait on MTSU, UT-Arlington, and Princeton's conference tournaments (also, it would be a shame if Vermont loses in the America East championship).
Significant Auto-Bids: UNC-Wilmington, Florida Gulf Coast, ETSU, Bucknell
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): MTSU
Bubble (1): UT-Arlington
Probably Out (2): Monmouth, Princeton
Totals:
Locks: 39
Probably In: 5
Bubble: 8 (for 3 at-large spots)
Probably Out: 8
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