Congratulations to Arkansas on a big win over Georgia and joining the locks! But, the bigger SEC bubble story is Vanderbilt's victory over Florida, which clearly puts the Commodores on the right side of the bubble for now. A win against Texas A&M on Thursday, and Vanderbilt is a lock, but it would be dicey (just like last year), if the Commodores are upset in their first game at the SEC Tournament. Meanwhile, we bid farewell to Alabama following a disappointing loss at Tennessee that saw the Tide blow a sizable lead.
Locks (3): Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas
Probably In (2): South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Bubble (1): Georgia
Probably Out (1): Tennessee
Watch Out (3): Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
ACC:
Virginia Tech should still be safe, but they didn't do any favors to me in their first game as a lock, falling to Wake Forest, which is looking safer by the day. As long as the Demon Deacons can avoid a disaster against Boston College on Tuesday, they should be safe. Also, Pittsburgh's bubble hopes are no more; while they may be a decent team, there is no way that a 4-14 conference record is getting anyone in to the NCAA Tournament.
Locks (8): North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech
Probably In (1):Wake Forest
Bubble (2): Syracuse, Georgia Tech
Probably Out (1): Clemson
Watch Out (0):
Big 12:
Little has changed in the Big 12 bubble picture. Kansas St. remains right on the cut line, one way or the other. While they were definitely a surprising success in 2017, TCU's bubble hopes are pretty much done following their loss to Oklahoma today.
Locks (5): Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Kansas St.
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (2): TCU, Texas Tech
Big Ten:
Rule #1 of being on the bubble has to be "you can't lose to Rutgers". Somehow, Illinois, after working so hard to get back on the bubble, did just that today. It doesn't end their hopes for an at-large, but it puts the Illini in the position of having to make a major run next week. While it is a long shot, we should add Iowa, which plays Penn St. tomorrow, into the mix. For Northwestern fans, I promise, beat Purdue tomorrow and you are a lock for the first time ever.
Locks (4): Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin
Probably In (3): Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan St.
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (2): Illinois, Iowa
Watch Out (2): Ohio St., Indiana
Pac-12:
Has any team in the country hurt themselves more over the last 48 hours than Cal? They are still a bubble team with a real shot of making the tournament, but do you have any confidence in them to not lose their first game in the Pac-12 Tournament. USC should be fine, even without another win, but I am holding off on the lock move out of an abundance of caution.
Locks (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Probably In (1): USC
Bubble (1): Cal
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Utah
Big East:
My current Bracketology has something that would be avoided at all costs- a clash between Big East teams in Dayton. But, it couldn't be avoided, because three of my last four in (plus my last team with a bye) are from one conference. So, make that four of the last five in from the Big East. They are all in for now, but none of them have any margin for error as we head down the stretch.
Locks (3): Villanova, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (0):
Bubble (4): Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
American:
The American is very weak this year. Cincinnati and SMU are all this league really has to offer in 2017. Houston is not completely out of at-large contention, but the weakness of leagues like the American, A-10, and MWC explains why we are seeing teams with RPIs in the 80s and 90s, ones with barely over .500 records, and squads with conference records as bad as 6-12 in the thick of bubble contention.
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Houston
Watch Out (0):
Missouri Valley:
Wichita St. and Illinois St. are indeed meeting in the MVC Finals. Obviously, the winner is in, but the Shockers are probably in better shape for an at-large of the two. Still, Illinois St.'s resume (their RPI in particular) would look really tempting to the committee as a potential at-large.
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): Wichita St.
Bubble (1): Illinois St.
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will almost certainly be a one-bid league this year. Nevada's bubble case isn't totally non-existent, but it can make this simple by winning the MWC Tournament next week. But, they are still more likely out than in if they lose in Las Vegas.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Nevada
Watch Out (1): Colorado St.
Atlantic-10:
Rhode Island escaped in overtime against Davidson at home to remain right on the bubble. Also, fine, VCU is a lock. Rams fans, you're going dancing!
Locks (2): Dayton, VCU
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Rhode Island
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Richmond
West Coast:
BYU could steal a bid if it can pull off another upset, but, otherwise, it is Gonzaga and St. Mary's from the WCC. Sound familiar?
Locks (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): BYU
Other Contenders:
Let me just come out and say this- it will be a travesty if the committee does not give MTSU a bid, even if they lose in the C-USA Tournament. But, beyond them and UT-Arlington, there are few mid- and low majors that have chances at at-large bids this year. UNC-Wilmington, Monmouth, and Princeton would make cases, but they would be long shots for at-large bids, especially since losses in these conference tournaments would, by nature, be bad losses.
Significant Auto-Bids:
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): MTSU
Bubble (1): UT-Arlington
Probably Out (3): UNC-Wilmington, Monmouth, Princeton
Totals:
Locks: 32
Probably In: 9
Bubble: 12 (for 6 at-large spots)
Probably Out: 9
Watch Out: 11
No comments:
Post a Comment