The SEC is definitely significantly improved in 2017, but there are still only two bonafide locks. South Carolina and Arkansas are very close, and would become the third and fourth locks with wins on Saturday. There is also plenty of bubble drama, featuring Vanderbilt, Georgia, and even some more fringe contenders like Tennessee and Alabama.
Locks (2): Kentucky, Florida
Probably In (2): Arkansas, South Carolina
Bubble (2): Vanderbilt, Georgia
Probably Out (2): Alabama, Tennessee
Watch Out (1): Texas A&M
ACC:
The big question here is whether this year's ACC can make a serious run at the 2011 Big East's all-time record of 11 bids. Virginia Tech is a lock because they have no remaining opportunities to suffer bad losses. Wake Forest could go a long way to joining the first eight if it can get a win over Virginia Tech. Thirteen of the fifteen teams remain in contention for an at-large bid as we head into the final weekend of the regular season.
Locks (8): North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech
Probably In (1):Wake Forest
Bubble (2): Syracuse, Georgia Tech
Probably Out (2): Clemson, Pittsburgh
Watch Out (0):
Big 12:
If the Big 12 is going to get a sixth bid, Kansas St. now seems to have the edge over TCU, following their head-to-head win in Fort Worth on Wednesday.
Locks (5): Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Kansas St.
Probably Out (1): TCU
Watch Out (1): Texas Tech
Big Ten:
Everyone's favorite story is whether Northwestern can finally make the Big Dance for the first time in program history. Things are looking up for the Wildcats following Wednesday's buzzer-beating win over Michigan, but I am not ready to pull the trigger on lock status just yet. Maryland and Wisconsin are locks by virtue of playing strong opponents this weekend, meaning that they will either do good or nothing, rather than suffer a damaging loss.
Locks (4): Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin
Probably In (3): Northwestern, Michigan, Michigan St.
Bubble (1): Illinois
Probably Out (1): Ohio St.
Watch Out (1): Indiana
Pac-12:
All Pac-12 bubble drama centers around two teams that seem like they are on the right side of it for now (USC and Cal), but all eyes are on the three elites, which could all cut down the nets on the first Monday in April.
Locks (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Probably In (1): USC
Bubble (1): Cal
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Big East:
The Big East has two major clusters (well, Villanova is in a group of their own, but all locks are equal on Bubble Watch). This league will have plenty of bubble drama as we head down the stretch and into the conference tournaments.
Locks (3): Villanova, Butler, Creighton
Probably In (0):
Bubble (4): Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Georgetown
American:
The American is very weak this year. Cincinnati and SMU are all this league really has to offer in 2017. Houston is not completely out of at-large contention, but the weakness of leagues like the American, A-10, and MWC explains why we are seeing teams with RPIs in the 80s and 90s, ones with barely over .500 records, and squads with conference records as bad as 4-13 in at least fringe bubble contention.
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Houston
Watch Out (0):
Missouri Valley:
Everyone always focuses on Wichita St. from the MVC, but Illinois St. has put together a really solid campaign from this league this year. After those two, however, no one is even above .500 in conference play.
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): Wichita St.
Bubble (1): Illinois St.
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will almost certainly be a one-bid league this year. Nevada's bubble case isn't totally non-existent, but it can make this simple by winning the MWC Tournament next week. But, they are still more likely out than in if they lose in Las Vegas.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Nevada
Watch Out (1): Colorado St.
Atlantic-10:
Another semi-major conference that is down this year. VCU and Dayton are looking good, and Rhode Island is solidly on the bubble, but then what? If I am a fan of a bubble team (which I actually am in real life), I am scared about the possibility for Richmond to rise up and steal a bid next week.
Locks (1): Dayton
Probably In (1): VCU
Bubble (1): Rhode Island
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): Richmond
West Coast:
BYU could steal a bid if it can pull off another upset, but, otherwise, it is Gonzaga and St. Mary's from the WCC. Sound familiar?
Locks (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Watch Out (1): BYU
Other Contenders:
Let me just come out and say this- it will be a travesty if the committee does not give MTSU a bid, even if they lose in the C-USA Tournament. But, beyond them and UT-Arlington, there are few mid- and low majors that have chances at at-large bids this year. UNC-Wilmington, Monmouth, and Princeton would make cases, but they would be long shots for at-large bids, especially since losses in these conference tournaments would, by nature, be bad losses.
Significant Auto-Bids:
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): MTSU
Bubble (1): UT-Arlington
Probably Out (3): UNC-Wilmington, Monmouth, Princeton
Totals:
Locks: 30
Probably In: 10
Bubble: 14 (for 7 at-large spots)
Probably Out: 11
Watch Out: 7
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