At this point, we view the bubble as being very narrow. Only four teams (Illinois St., Syracuse, Marquette, and Rhode Island) are listed as being on the bubble. Two of them will get in, and two of them won't. There are also no remaining potential bid thieves, unless you count the possibility for Rhode Island to take matters into their own hands.
SEC:
Alabama gave it a good run against Kentucky, but they will head to the NIT after coming up five points short. All indications are that the SEC will get five bids this year, a major improvement from just three (one of which lost in the First Four) last year.
Locks (5): Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Georgia
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
ACC:
Georgia Tech needed to beat Pitt. They didn't, so they are completely done. Clemson did get one win, but that likely will not be enough following their loss to Duke on Wednesday. I will leave them at "Probably Out", but it would take a miracle for the football champions to have a chance to add a basketball championship. Syracuse, meanwhile, is at the mercy of everyone else who is still playing. We will have a better feel on them by Saturday.
Locks (9): North Carolina, Duke (auto-bid), Louisville, Florida St., Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Clemson
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big 12:
Kansas St. is certainly in much better shape following their win over Baylor. They are not 100% safe due to the suddenly strengthening bubble, but they have a great shot, even after falling to West Virginia. After a shocking upset of Kansas, TCU was briefly back in the conversation. They gave it a good run, but they will be heading to the NIT in Jamie Dixon's first year.
Locks (5): Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St. (auto-bid), Oklahoma St.
Probably In (1): Kansas St.
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): TCU
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big Ten:
Indiana made it interesting, but they are not going to make the NCAA Tournament following a loss to Wisconsin today in the quarterfinals. Also, now that Michigan St. has avoided the disaster against Penn St. and Northwestern against Rutgers, I will finally make the moves on them. Congratulations, Northwestern, for the first time, you are going to the NCAA Tournament!
Locks (7): Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Pac-12:
Cal is not done, but "Probably Out" would be a good way to describe their position after losing to Oregon Friday. They did win two games in Las Vegas, but they were not able to pick up a marquee win. USC should be fine, but they still need to root against potential bid thieves. I am not 100% sure in my calls for either, but it seems likely that USC is in and Cal out.
Locks (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Probably In (1): USC
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Cal
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big East:
With much of the craziness having subsided, Xavier and Seton Hall are now locks to make the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Providence is highly likely to join them as well, and Marquette has a strong case to make it seven.
Locks (5): Villanova (auto-bid), Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, Xavier
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (1): Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
American:
The American is very weak this year. Cincinnati and SMU are all this league really has to offer in 2017. Houston lost to UConn Friday, and it would take a miracle for them to make it. The weakness of leagues like the American, A-10, and MWC explains why we are seeing teams with RPIs in the 80s and 90s, ones with barely over .500 records, and squads with conference records as bad as 6-12 in the thick of bubble contention. Additionally, now that the championship is set as SMU vs. Cincinnati, bubble teams do not have to worry about a bid thief coming out of the AAC.
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Houston
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Missouri Valley:
Wichita St. made things simple by locking up the auto-bid in Arch Madness. As for Illinois St., it really could go either way, and that will largely depend on how the other bubble teams (the ones still playing this week) fare.
Locks (1): Wichita St. (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Illinois St.
Probably Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will almost certainly be a one-bid league this year, and that will be Nevada after winning in Vegas to avoid the at-large discussion. Colorado St. likely has a NIT bid waiting for it as well.
Auto-Bid: Nevada
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Atlantic-10:
Rhode Island will try to completely leave the bubble behind tomorrow when they face VCU for the Atlantic-10 Championship and the auto-bid. Should they lose, it will be very close. My guess is that they would make it, but it could go either way.
Locks (2): Dayton, VCU
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Rhode Island
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
West Coast:
Now that we know that Gonzaga and St. Mary's will play tonight in the WCC title game, there is nothing more to watch (for bubble purposes, that is) in the WCC. Gonzaga and St. Mary's will go to the Big Dance, while BYU will hope for a NIT selection.
Locks (2): Gonzaga (auto-bid), St. Mary's
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Other Contenders:
MTSU is likely the only team in any other conference that could have earned an at-large bid had they failed to win the C-USA Tournament. The Blue Raiders, however, took care of business and will not take some poor bubble team's spot in the field. UT-Arlington is now very much a long-shot, especially since they lost to Texas St., who has a RPI around 200. Their own RPI is very solid, and they have a nice win over St. Mary's, but there is not a whole lot more on that resume. Princeton will not get an at-large and needs to beat Yale tomorrow to make the NCAA Tournament.
Significant Auto-Bids: UNC-Wilmington, Florida Gulf Coast, ETSU, Bucknell, Vermont, MTSU
Locks (1): MTSU (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): UT-Arlington
Totals:
Locks: 42
Probably In: 3
Bubble: 4 (for 2 spots)
Probably Out: 6
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