SEC:
Georgia's at-large hopes are very slim after bowing out in the SEC quarterfinals against Kentucky. Vanderbilt will make it regardless, but a win over Florida would ensure that the Commodores will avoid the First Four, where they went (and lost) last year.
Locks (5): Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Georgia
Alive Bid Thieves (1): Alabama
ACC:
Georgia Tech needed to beat Pitt. They didn't, so they are completely done. Clemson did get one win, but that likely will not be enough following their loss to Duke on Wednesday. I will leave them at "Probably Out", but it would take a miracle for the football champions to have a chance to add a basketball championship. Syracuse, meanwhile, is at the mercy of everyone else who is still playing. We will have a better feel on them by Saturday.
Locks (9): North Carolina, Duke, Louisville, Florida St., Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Syracuse
Probably Out (1): Clemson
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big 12:
Kansas St. is certainly in much better shape following their win over Baylor. They are not 100% safe due to the suddenly strengthening bubble, but they have a great shot, even after falling to West Virginia. After a shocking upset of Kansas, TCU is back in the conversation. TCU gave it a good run, but they will be heading to the NIT in Jamie Dixon's first year.
Locks (5): Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In (1): Kansas St.
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): TCU
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big Ten:
Indiana made it interesting, but they are not going to make the NCAA Tournament following a loss to Wisconsin today in the quarterfinals. Also, now that Michigan St. has avoided the disaster against Penn St. and Northwestern against Rutgers, I will finally make the moves on them. Congratulations, Northwestern, for the first time, you are going to the NCAA Tournament!
Locks (7): Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan St.
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Iowa
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Pac-12:
Cal is not done, but "Probably Out" would be a good way to describe their position after losing to Oregon today. They did win two games in Las Vegas, but they were not able to pick up a marquee win. USC should be fine, but they still need to root against potential bid thieves. I am not 100% sure in my calls for either, but it seems likely that USC is in and Cal out.
Locks (3): Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Probably In (1): USC
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Cal
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
Big East:
With much of the craziness having subsided, Xavier and Seton Hall are now locks to make the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Providence is highly likely to join them as well, and Marquette has a strong case to make it seven.
Locks (5): Villanova, Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, Xavier
Probably In (1): Providence
Bubble (1): Marquette
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (0):
American:
The American is very weak this year. Cincinnati and SMU are all this league really has to offer in 2017. Houston lost to UConn today, and it would take a miracle for them to make it. The weakness of leagues like the American, A-10, and MWC explains why we are seeing teams with RPIs in the 80s and 90s, ones with barely over .500 records, and squads with conference records as bad as 6-12 in the thick of bubble contention.
Locks (2): SMU, Cincinnati
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Houston
Alive Bid Thieves (2): UCF, Connecticut
Missouri Valley:
Wichita St. made things simple by locking up the auto-bid in Arch Madness. As for Illinois St., it really could go either way, and that will largely depend on how the other bubble teams (the ones still playing this week) fare.
Locks (1): Wichita St. (auto-bid)
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Illinois St.
Probably Out (0):
Mountain West:
The Mountain West will almost certainly be a one-bid league this year. Nevada's bubble case isn't totally non-existent, but it can make this simple by winning the MWC Tournament this week. But, they are still more likely out than in if they lose in Las Vegas.
Locks (0):
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (1): Nevada
Alive Bid Thieves (3): Everyone still alive not named Nevada
Atlantic-10:
As we speak, Rhode Island is facing 5th seeded St. Bonaventure. Winning this game alone is probably not enough (but losing it would be a disaster), but a potential win over Dayton on Saturday could change everything for Rhode Island. Bubble teams should also be on high alert for a bid thief out of the A-10 this year, and Davidson made that much more of a reality by knocking off Dayton Friday morning.
Locks (2): Dayton, VCU
Probably In (0):
Bubble (1): Rhode Island
Probably Out (0):
Alive Bid Thieves (2): Davidson, Richmond
West Coast:
Now that we know that Gonzaga and St. Mary's will play tonight in the WCC title game, there is nothing more to watch (for bubble purposes, that is) in the WCC. Gonzaga and St. Mary's will go to the Big Dance, while BYU will hope for a NIT selection.
Locks (2): Gonzaga (auto-bid), St. Mary's
Probably In (0):
Bubble (0):
Probably Out (0):
Other Contenders:
UNC-Wilmington did what minor conference teams often have to do- win their conference tournament, instead of leaving it up to the committee. Monmouth, on the other hand, did not get that job done, and it is hard to see how they will get an at-large bid. We now wait on MTSU, UT-Arlington, and Princeton's conference tournaments (also, it would be a shame if Vermont loses in the America East championship).
Significant Auto-Bids: UNC-Wilmington, Florida Gulf Coast, ETSU, Bucknell
Locks (0):
Probably In (1): MTSU
Bubble (1): UT-Arlington
Probably Out (2): Monmouth, Princeton
Totals:
Locks: 41
Probably In: 4
Bubble: 5 (for 2 at-large spots)
Probably Out: 9
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