NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.

Spots Available:
Locks: 39 (barring upsets, includes 9 conference winners)
Probably In: 3
Bubble: 9 (for 4 spots)
Probably Out: 4
More teams worth watching: 2 (Akron, Ohio)

ACC
If Maryland loses to North Carolina today, it will come down to whether two wins over #1 RPI and SOS Duke are enough to offset an otherwise mediocre season.  If Maryland beats UNC, it will be in a much better position.  Meanwhile, Virginia probably has too many bad losses, but I will keep them "On the Bubble" unless the bubble shrinks more.

Locks: Miami, Duke, NC State, UNC
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: Virginia, Maryland
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 5

Big East
The Big East is done from a bubble standpoint, as Villanova is a lock, and St. John's is off the page.

Locks: Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Villanova
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: 
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 8

Big Ten
Iowa missed an opportunity against Michigan St.  It is not yet done, but it would take a very generous selection committee to put Iowa in.

Locks: Indiana, Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Minnesota, Illinois
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: 
Probably Out: Iowa
Over / Under: 7

Big 12

Baylor played a great game against Oklahoma St., but came up just short.  My guess is that Baylor has just barely not done enough, but I do not feel entirely comfortable moving them down to "probably Out", unless the bubble shrinks (I'm looking at you, Vanderbilt!).

Locks: Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Iowa St.
Probably In: Oklahoma
On the Bubble: Baylor
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5

Pac-12
Oregon now joins Arizona, Colorado, and UCLA as locks.  I am less bullish on California than ESPN (Lunardi and Brennan) is.

Locks: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado, Oregon
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: California
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 4.5

SEC
Vanderbilt is ruining the SEC Bubble field, as it took Arkansas off the page.  Then, it severely damaged Kentucky's hopes.  Tonight, it sets its sights on Ole Miss.  Keep in mind that Vanderbilt is also trying to make the tournament itself, as two more wins would give it an auto-bid.  Meanwhile, Tennessee has drifted clearly behind the other three after a loss to Alabama.  Thus, it is now "Probably Out".

Locks: Florida, Missouri
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama
Probably Out: Tennessee
Over / Under: 4

Mountain West
Boise St. should breathe a sigh of relief that the other bubble teams (save Maryland and Alabama) did not pick up huge wins.  I feel comfortable tentatively moving Boise St. to "Probably In".

Locks: New Mexico, Colorado St., UNLV, San Diego St.
Probably In: Boise St.
On the Bubble: 
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 5

Atlantic Ten
La Salle and Temple both had decent, but not spectacular A-10 Tournaments.  I think that both ultimately get in, but I will only move Temple up to "Probably In" for now.  Also, Massachusetts re-enters the page after beating Temple.  A win over VCU would make things really interesting.

Locks: Butler, St. Louis, VCU
Probably In: Temple
On the Bubble: La Salle
Probably Out: Massachusetts
Over / Under: 4.5

Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
Southern Miss needs another quality win.  If it gets one, it wins the C-USA Tournament and gets an auto-bid.  Otherwise, it will be tough.  If Southern Miss is blown out, it will be completely off the page.  Meanwhile, there is no way that Akron looks like an at-large team without their star point guard  who was suspended for marijuana possession.

Punched a Ticket: Florida Gulf Coast, Harvard, Belmont, Creighton, Liberty, James Madison, Davidson, Iona, Gonzaga, Western Kentucky, LIU-Brooklyn, Valparaiso, South Dakota St., Bucknell

Locks: Wichita St., Memphis, St. Mary's
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Middle Tennessee St.
Probably Out: Southern Miss