NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.

Spots Available:
Locks: 35 (barring upsets, includes 4 conference winners)
Probably In: 2
Bubble: 9 (for 4 spots (or 3 with an Ole Miss win))
Probably Out: 4

ACC
Virginia and Maryland are both still squarely on the bubble.  Both should be heavily rooting for Florida to beat Ole Miss today.

Locks: Miami, Duke, NC State, UNC
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: Virginia, Maryland
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 5

Big East
The Big East is done from a bubble standpoint, as Villanova is a lock, and St. John's is off the page.

Auto-Bid: Louisville
Locks: Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Villanova
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: 
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 8

Big Ten
Iowa missed an opportunity against Michigan St.  It is not yet done, but it would take a very generous selection committee to put Iowa in.

Locks: Indiana, Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Minnesota, Illinois
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: 
Probably Out: Iowa
Over / Under: 7

Big 12

After further looking into Baylor's resume, I think that it would take a Texas-sized miracle for it to get in.  Thus, I have it as "Probably Out".  Also, as the bubble has not shrunk, I feel comfortable moving Oklahoma to a "Lock".

Auto-Bid: Kansas
Locks: Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Iowa St., Oklahoma
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: 
Probably Out: Baylor
Over / Under: 5

Pac-12
Oregon now joins Arizona, Colorado, and UCLA as locks.  I am less bullish on California than ESPN (Lunardi and Brennan) is.

Auto-Bid: Oregon
Locks: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: California
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 4.5

SEC
Ole Miss is the only bubble team that can still help its own cause.  A win over Florida would put it in, with an auto-bid.  With a loss, Ole Miss may or may not get a bid.

Locks: Florida, Missouri
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama
Probably Out: Tennessee
Over / Under: 4

Mountain West
Boise St. should breathe a sigh of relief that the other bubble teams (save Maryland and Alabama) did not pick up huge wins.  I feel comfortable tentatively moving Boise St. to "Probably In".

Auto-Bid: New Mexico
Locks: Colorado St., UNLV, San Diego St.
Probably In: Boise St.
On the Bubble: 
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 5

Atlantic Ten
La Salle and Temple both had decent, but not spectacular A-10 Tournaments.  I think that both ultimately get in, but I will only move Temple up to "Probably In" for now.  Also, Massachusetts re-enters the page after beating Temple.  A win over VCU would make things really interesting.

Locks: Butler, St. Louis, VCU
Probably In: Temple
On the Bubble: La Salle
Probably Out: Massachusetts
Over / Under: 4.5

Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
Southern Miss took Memphis into double overtime; while I still think that it will eventually be out, I am not comfortable enough with that prediction to keep it off the "On the Bubble" line.  Meanwhile, Memphis moves off the "Locks" line, as it is now official.

Punched a Ticket: Florida Gulf Coast, Harvard, Belmont, Creighton, Liberty, James Madison, Davidson, Iona, Gonzaga, Western Kentucky, LIU-Brooklyn, Valparaiso, South Dakota St., Bucknell, Memphis, Albany, Southern, North Carolina A&T, Akron, Northwestern St., Montana, Pacific, New Mexico St.

Locks: Wichita St., St. Mary's
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Middle Tennessee St., Southern Miss
Probably Out: