NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

Unlike ESPN, I will not provide a detailed analysis of my rationale for placing teams in any given spot aside from a brief conference description.  I prefer to save that analysis for "What Will it Take".


Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.

Spots Available:
Locks: 36
Probably In: 7
Bubble: 14 (for 5 at-large spots, but 7 make it in the current Bracketology)
Probably Out: 7

ACC
UNC is now a lock.  Virginia is in a lot worse position (second to last team in) than it was before losing to Florida St. (Last Four Byes).

Locks: Miami, Duke, NC State, UNC
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: Virginia, Maryland
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 5

Big East
Villanova moves to "Probably In" due to having few opportunities for bad losses from here on out.  

Locks: Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
Probably In: Cincinnati, Villanova
On the Bubble: St. John's
Probably Out: Providence
Over / Under: 8

Big Ten
Welcome back, Iowa!  In fact, the Hawkeyes are now "On the Bubble".

Locks: Indiana, Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Minnesota, Illinois
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: Iowa
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 7.5

Big 12

Oklahoma has a potential landmine against TCU.  For that reason, it is not yet a lock.  

Locks: Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In: Oklahoma, Iowa St.
On the Bubble: Baylor
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5

Pac-12
Colorado looked very impressive in its demolishing of Oregon.  For that reason, Colorado is now a lock.  Oregon will be as long as it avoids a loss this weekend.

Locks: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado
Probably In: Oregon
On the Bubble: California
Probably Out: Arizona St.
Over / Under: 4.5

SEC
As soon as Arkansas was promoted, it was demolished by Missouri and returns to "Probably Out".

Locks: Florida, Missouri
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee
Probably Out: Arkansas
Over / Under: 3.5

Mountain West
No new news to report

Locks: New Mexico, Colorado St., UNLV, San Diego St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Boise St.
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 4.5

Atlantic Ten
Massachusetts is done following a home loss to Butler.  Temple is beginning to look closer to being "Probably In".
Locks: Butler, St. Louis, VCU
Probably In: La Salle
On the Bubble: Temple
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 4.5

Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
Louisiana Tech had its win streak come to a close and moves back to "Probably Out".  BYU is done, if only due to numbers.  Meanwhile, Creighton has made the MWC semis and re-entered the ranks of the Locks.

Locks: Gonzaga, Wichita St., Memphis, Creighton
Probably In: St. Mary's
On the Bubble: Belmont, Middle Tennessee St.
Probably Out: Akron, Bucknell, Indiana St., Louisiana Tech