NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

Unlike ESPN, I will not provide a detailed analysis of my rationale for placing teams in any given spot aside from a brief conference description.  I prefer to save that analysis for "What Will it Take".

NOTE: This includes all games completed as of 6:30 PM Thursday 3/14.

NOTE 2: I have restored the designations as of Wednesday at 6:30, but there is now no analysis.

Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.

Spots Available:
Locks: 36 (barring upsets, includes 9 conference winners)
Probably In: 4
Bubble: 12 (for 6 spots)
Probably Out: 5
More teams worth watching: 6 (Florida St., Arizona St., Xavier, Massachusetts, Ohio, Southern Miss)

ACC

Locks: Miami, Duke, NC State, UNC
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: Virginia
Probably Out: Maryland
Over / Under: 4.5

Big East

Locks: Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
Probably In: Villanova
On the Bubble: 
Probably Out: St. John's
Over / Under: 8

Big Ten

Locks: Indiana, Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Minnesota, Illinois
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: Iowa
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 7.5

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In: Oklahoma, Iowa St.
On the Bubble: Baylor
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5

Pac-12

Locks: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado
Probably In: Oregon
On the Bubble: California
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 4.5

SEC

Locks: Florida, Missouri
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee
Probably Out: Arkansas
Over / Under: 4

Mountain West

Locks: New Mexico, Colorado St., UNLV, San Diego St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Boise St.
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 4.5

Atlantic Ten

Locks: Butler, St. Louis, VCU
Probably In: 
On the Bubble: Temple, La Salle
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 4.5

Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others

Punched a Ticket: Florida Gulf Coast, Harvard, Belmont, Creighton, Liberty, James Madison, Davidson, Iona, Gonzaga, Western Kentucky, LIU-Brooklyn, Valparaiso, South Dakota St.

Locks: Wichita St., Memphis, St. Mary's
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Middle Tennessee St.
Probably Out: Akron, Bucknell