NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

Unlike ESPN, I will not provide a detailed analysis of my rationale for placing teams in any given spot aside from a brief conference description.  I prefer to save that analysis for "What Will it Take".


Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.

ACC
In wake of losses by other bubble teams, Maryland returns to "On the Bubble".  Meanwhile, UNC will move to a "Lock" should it beat Florida St. today.

Locks: Miami, Duke, NC State
Probably In: UNC
On the Bubble: Virginia, Maryland
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 5

Big East
At this point, the real question facing the Big East is whether or not it can get an eighth (or even ninth) team into the tournament.  Cincinnati also would be wise to get another quality win. 

Locks: Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
Probably In: Cincinnati
On the Bubble: Villanova, St. John's
Probably Out: Providence
Over / Under: 8

Big Ten
Illinois moves up to a "Lock" after holding serve against Nebraska.  Meanwhile, Iowa drops off Bubble Watch, at least for now.  The Big Ten bubble drama is officially over.

Locks: Indiana, Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Minnesota, Illinois
Probably In: 
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 7

Big 12

Oklahoma had an impressive win over Iowa St., but it was not quite enough to move either team.

Locks: Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In: Oklahoma, Iowa St.
On the Bubble: Baylor
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5

Pac-12
Arizona St., after losing to an improving, but still not impressive, USC team, is now "Probably Out".  After beating Arizona, UCLA joins the Wildcats as "Locks".

Locks: Arizona, UCLA
Probably In: Colorado, Oregon
On the Bubble: California
Probably Out: Arizona St.
Over / Under: 5

SEC
There is so much bubble drama in the SEC, with 5 teams squarely "On the Bubble" after Arkansas was promoted following a win over Kentucky.  Meanwhile, Missouri is now a "Lock" after a win over LSU.

Locks: Florida, Missouri
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 4

Mountain West
Air Force is done after falling to MWC bottom-feeder Fresno St.

Locks: New Mexico, Colorado St., UNLV, San Diego St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Boise St.
Probably Out: 
Over / Under: 4.5

Atlantic Ten
VCU joins Butler and St. Louis in "Lock" status after its blowout of Butler.

Locks: Butler, St. Louis, VCU
Probably In: La Salle
On the Bubble: Temple
Probably Out: Massachusetts
Over / Under: 4.5

Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
Indiana St. falls to "Probably Out" following a loss to Evansville.  Creighton is closing in on returning to the "Locks".

Locks: Gonzaga, Wichita St., Memphis
Probably In: St. Mary's, Creighton
On the Bubble: Belmont, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee St.
Probably Out: Akron, BYU, Bucknell, Indiana St.