Sunday, March 17, 2013

Better Bracketology vs. Lunardi

Teams Correct
US: 68/68 --> 68 points
THEM: 68/68 --> 68 points
Score: 68-68 Tie

1-Seeds
US: 3/4, 2 exact, 1 one spot off --> 11 points
THEM: 4/4, 2 exact, 2 one off --> 14 points
Score: 82-79 Lunardi

2, 3, and 4 Seeds
US: 7/12 exact, 4 one off --> 18 points
THEM: 10/12, 2 one off --> 22 points
Score: 104-97 Lunardi

5-13 Seeds, not Last Four In
US: 26 points
THEM: 25 points
Score: 129-123 Lunardi

Last Four In
US: 4/4 In, 2/4 in First Four --> 12 points
THEM: 4/4 In, 4/4 in First Four --> 18 points
Score: 147-135 Lunardi

14-15 Seeds
US: 6/8 in Group, 6/8 Exact --> 6 points
THEM: 5/8 in Group, 4/8 Exact --> 4.5 points
Score: 151.5-141 Lunardi

16 Seeds
US: 5/6 in Group, 3/6 Exact --> 4 points
THEM: 5/6 in Group, 3/6 Exact --> 4 points
Score: 155.5-145 Lunardi

First Four Out
US: 4/4 Out, 2/4 in First Four Out --> 12 points
THEM: 4/4 Out, 1/4 in First Four Out --> 9 points

FINAL SCORE
Joe Lunardi 164.5, Better Bracketology 157

Two Takeaways:

1) I Did a Good Job: I correctly predicted the 68 teams that would be in the NCAA Tournament, something I had never done before.  In fact, I tied Lunardi in his metric (teams predicted correctly).  While I do not have the data to prove it, my score would have been good enough almost any other year.

2) I Lost it in Lunardi's Key Areas: Lunardi naturally focuses most on the Top Four seed lines and on the Last Four In, as those are what he gets asked about the most.  In the middle of the field, bottom of the field, and the order of the out teams, I beat Lunardi 48- 42.5.  In the "key areas", I lost 54-41.  We both received 68 points for getting all 68 teams correct.  Also, keep in mind that Bracketology is his job and something I do in my spare time.

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