NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

Unlike ESPN, I will not provide a detailed analysis of my rationale for placing teams in any given spot aside from a brief conference description.  I prefer to save that analysis for "What Will it Take".

UPDATE (2:11 AM 2/14): Creighton is "Probably In", not a "Lock".

Terms:
Lock- I see no (reasonable) way that these teams will miss the tournament.
Probably in- These teams have resumes that will allow them to make the tournament barring any bad losses.
On the Bubble- Could go either Way
Probably Out- These teams need to win almost all of their remaining games.

ACC
Virginia is on the right side of the bubble for now, but it is too soon to elevate it to "Probably In".  On the other hand, Maryland slips to "Probably Out" for now, although wins vs. UNC and @ Virginia could change that.  

Locks: Miami, Duke, NC State
Probably In: UNC
On the Bubble: Virginia
Probably Out: Maryland
Over / Under: 5

Big East
At this point, the real question facing the Big East is whether or not it can get an eighth (or even ninth) team into the tournament.  Cincinnati also would be wise to get another quality win. 

Locks: Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
Probably In: Cincinnati
On the Bubble: Villanova, St. John's
Probably Out: Providence
Over / Under: 8

Big Ten
A win vs. Nebraska today will both even Illinois's conference record and move the team into "Lock" status.  Today is a huge day for Iowa, as it will either move to "On the Bubble" (by winning @ Indiana) or falling of entirely (much more probable).

Locks: Indiana, Michigan St., Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Minnesota
Probably In: Illinois
On the Bubble:
Probably Out: Iowa
Over / Under: 7

Big 12

Oklahoma's loss to Texas forces me to put them back to "Probably In".

Locks: Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St.
Probably In: Oklahoma, Iowa St.
On the Bubble: Baylor
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5.5

Pac-12
Stanford is now done after a close loss to Colorado.

Locks: Arizona
Probably In: Colorado, Oregon, UCLA
On the Bubble: California, Arizona St.
Probably Out:
Over / Under: 5

SEC
Just a few days after not being on Bubble Watch at all, Tennessee is squarely "On the Bubble" (actually currently in per Bracketology).  Arkansas will fall off if it loses to Kentucky today.

Locks: Florida
Probably In: Missouri
On the Bubble: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee
Probably Out: Arkansas
Over / Under: 4

Mountain West
Air Force will almost certainly miss the tournament, but I do not feel comfortable completely removing them just yet.

Locks: New Mexico, Colorado St., UNLV, San Diego St.
Probably In:
On the Bubble: Boise St.
Probably Out: Air Force
Over / Under: 4.5

Atlantic Ten
After a blowout loss at home to Temple, Charlotte is done.  La Salle is also elevated to "Probably In", but a loss to Duquenese would send it right back.

Locks: Butler, St. Louis
Probably In: VCU, La Salle
On the Bubble: Temple
Probably Out: Massachusetts
Over / Under: 4.5

Missouri Valley, West Coast Conference, and Others
Indiana St. is barely within striking distance of a spot; however, should it lose @ Evansville today, it will be "Probably Out".  Meanwhile, I think that, in the interest of safety, Middle Tennessee St. should be "On the Bubble".

Locks: Gonzaga, Wichita St., Memphis
Likely In: St. Mary's, Creighton
On the Bubble: Belmont, Indiana St., Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee St.
Likely Out: Akron, BYU, Bucknell